There are plenty of signs that the Thai government is moving towards a crackdown on the red shirts tonight.

Whatever happens, this may be Abhisit’s last stand. If he fails to launch a crackdown, it is hard to see his credibility surviving another failed ultimatum. If the crackdown goes ahead and fails, descending into chaos like April 10, he will be similarly damaged. And if it succeeds, inevitably with loss of life, Abhisit will never be in a position to lead the process of negotiation and reconciliation that must come sooner or later.

Post your updates, information and comments on tonight’s events here.