Comments

  1. Neptunian

    When you talk about graduate employment, you are indirectly speaking of inequality. Studies show a direct correlation between socio-economic background and graduate enrollment and lifetime outcomes generally.

    On the discrimination issue, you should really read that link I gave. Here’s a sampling:

    “Chinese résumés register a mean callback rate of 22.1%,
    steeply above the 4.2% for Malay résumés. This equates with a differential of 17.9 percentage
    points and an inter-group callback ratio of 5.3. In other words, for every Malay applicant that
    gets called, on average, 5.3 Chinese get called. We also note variations across job type.
    Interacting race and job type, we note that Chinese applicants to engineering jobs are more likely
    to be called, followed by Chinese applicants to accounting jobs, Malay applicants to accounting
    jobs, then Malay applicants to engineering jobs, who register an exceptionally low 2.9% callback
    rate.”

  2. neptunian says:

    How about investing in Cambodia – the country needs it.

  3. Andrew says:

    You did not respond to my criticisms. You chose to interpret the rhetorical questions as request for your help in getting answers. This is not right on your part.

    1. My discussion is with you. You are saying the statistics in Malaysia are credible. I am not saying that they are misleading, but I want to discover the truth. You are the one who is proposing that there is no problem with credibility of statistics. You must defend that statement, you cannot ask me to go and ask Dept of Statistics Malaysia. I am not discussing the proposition with DOSM.
    2. The reason for asking you how many items are in the CPI and how many of them are controlled or fixed is to find out what percentage will not be subject to increases. If some percentage is invariant that will cover up the influence of items that do change. I hope you understand my logic for asking that question. Obviously you cannot furnish the details, you don’t know the details or you don’t want to reveal the details. This is a dishonest tactic in a public debate.
    2. We all know that MIDA is an approving agency. Are you saying they approve and then do not record actual investments? No agency in Malaysia records actual investments? Is that what you are saying? How can UNCTAD give the figures? (Note: You directed me to UNCTAD. I do not think that UNCTAD comes to Malaysia to collect those figures.) I have not seen breakdown of actual investment figures in Malaysia by SITC code. Lack of transparency throws doubt on credibility.
    3. We are not in a race to find out who has done more courses than who. So it is impolite of you to say that I am one up on you. You are making it look that I am trying to outdo you. That is not the reason why I am referring to I-O tables. I mentioned I-O tables because they are a key source of statistics. That is why DOSM constructs them. If the tables do not balance, that is a major shortcoming and a serious lack of credibility comes to question. (Tables not balancing means that rows and columns do not tally.)
    4. Empirical truism means that a statement is always true empirically. You are saying that “inflation is perceived to be higher than CPI everywhere.” This statement is wrong because if you have done Logic 101 or any course on Methodology or even Basic Econometrics it means that in every country that you measure inflation, it will always be higher than CPI. You cannot say that unless you have evidence from all the statistical agencies in the world. You are saying it as if the variance has to be accepted as a fact of life. That is a lie. Statisticians are trying to minimise the gap, not accept it. The chief statistician of OECD has said that the economy cannot function if half the people think that inflation is at 100% and the other half think that it is at 2%. Variance is not accepted as a fact of life as you are trying hard to argue. You must have learnt about minimising variance or variation in your statistics courses. (Good thing you did not say “inflation is perceived to be always higher than CPI everywhere.”)
    5. The article you have given a link to “Perceptions of Consumer Price Index” does not argue that the variation has to be necessarily so. The paper suggests way in which perception can be measured and how it can help us better understand what influences perception. Either you didn’t read the article properly or you are trying to mislead me.
    6. You are right that it is possible to construct state-level I-O tables when there is national I-O tables. Then why isn’t it done? This raises a question of credibility.
    7. Even state governments do not have access to all DOSM data they need. You can ask UPEN Selangor. I can’t reveal more because it will be against OSA. Why no transparency? You say you have not problem with Malaysian statistics!!! Will you say that transparency and credibility are different questions!

    If you want to impress upon the readers that you are trying to be as unbiased and scientific, then you should not go out of your way to defend things that cannot be defended. That will be good for your reputation.

    The way you as a top Malaysian economist are arguing I will agree with Din Merican that is better to avoid investing in Malaysia.

  4. neptunian says:

    Forget about your more detailed plans – you are missing a major point. The capital needed to do food processing factories, the capital needed to implement a “farm to fork” supply chain, and a framework to make all these work.
    Any agriculture 101 student can tell you about multi value added things you can do with any agricultural productsm but not many can tell you how to actually do it and how to finance the plans.

    Cambodia needs “actionable” plans, not academic hoohaa.

  5. Morgan says:

    Indeed, you express my own feelings precisely, though you do so rather better than I would.

    The new guy had an opportunity to reverse his pitiable reputation among Thais, and put himself in a position where he might actually do himself and the monarchy in Thailand some good. Alas I think that has now been squandered away and he will doubtless end up going the same way as Prem, Prayuth and Prawit will all go.

    Good riddance is my opinion, it’s becoming clear that the Chakri dynasty is in the process of blowing itself up, ably assisted by the armed forces, the police and the judiciary in Thailand. What is truly remarkable is that none of them appear to be aware of what damage they’re doing to themselves day after day, and now they’re even going after Thaksin’s money again. I’m not sure how wise that is and I think they would have been smart to let that sleeping dog lie..

    These Augeian stables are going to need a bit more than the usual superficial Thai job. The usual BS just isn’t going to cut it any more.

  6. mike fung says:

    By use of food machine produces variety of rice product eg. rice wine,fry rice cake, different shape size of rice noodle, rice skin care, so as to make value added product rather than export rice. More detail plan feel free contact me by email.

  7. Ryan K says:

    An insightful article on what’s transpiring in the palace in recent days, esp. since it’s only been a few months that Rama X ascended to the throne. I do hope this is the “beginning of the end” for this Chakri dynasty. The powers that be–elites, royalists, military– have tried to prop it up for too long, which has been extremely detrimental to the Thai people, to whom Thailand belongs. I do believe now the end is in sight.

    Having been strictly enforced for the past several decades, Article 112 has made Thais extremely fearful, even at times, paranoid of what is said and where it is said. It’s being spoken of behind closed doors and comes across as gossip. Sadly, it is the truth and no matter how much the palace PR machine tries to keep it under wraps, it does get out in due time. This is a horror story unfolding before our eyes, with this dude on the throne, we will continue to see his shenanigans being talked about across Thailand, even at this site.

    Sia O has been reckless and ruthless for decades and is not going to change. I do hope for the sake of the Thai people, this sad saga comes to an end. He does not care one iota what the world thinks, see or talks about him. He has a coterie of military men, who grovel at his feet, who do his bidding.
    Pol. Gen. Jumpol Manmai is the latest to suffer his wrath, as he “shuffles the deck” in the palace and replaces all the old-timers with his hand selected individuals. It was just a matter of time, as Jumpol was Thaksin’s “bagman” who delivered bags of money from lottery sales to Sia O, and who was the go-between Sia O and Thaksin. The same Jumpol Manmai that Sia O wanted to put in place as Police Chief. Now he is spending time behind bars, and sadly, will likely end up dying of a sudden illness or brutally beaten to death, like many before him, who have “crossed the line” with Sia O.
    His newly appointed and promoted consort, Gen. Suthida, is in for a rude awakening. Sia O will continue his escapades and she will wake up to this nightmare, although I believe she has no say as he does as he pleases. It is a well known fact what he’s done to this ex-wives and ex-mistresses. We can only shake our heads as his perverse behavior will only get worse.

  8. Peter Cohen says:

    I would ask which members of ASEAN meet more than one criterion of the ASEAN “Economic Community” and how the theft of $ 761 million by the Prime Minister of Malaysia makes Malaysia a good candidate for membership. I don’t recall Ramos Horta stealing anything. I do recall stupid comments here on NM arguing why Timor Leste should not be a member and they remain stupid.

  9. Falang says:

    indeed , given what we know is true there is nothing left that commands any large element of surprise .

  10. Morgan says:

    While taking your point, if Christine was reporting on what is common gossip among Thais, then given the draconian impact of 112, it must be considered to be an important and widespread perception among Thais.

    It would be less important if it was against the general grain of behaviour by the new guy, but we all know it isn’t, and therefore, a common acceptance that it *may* be true represents an important dynamic in Thai society and politics that I personally support Christine in commenting on.

  11. Yo naz says:

    Very interesting piece, wish to read more of this kind of articles regarding the issue. It seems to be really hard to find any good articles in the subject except on new mandala and the economist

  12. Peter Cohen says:

    Malays have been given preference since Malaysian independence. That can be a good thing and it can be a not so good thing, but it is fact and Neptunian is stating fact. I reckon as a Malaysian he has a good handle on facts which can be seen in his commentaries. I also had three Malay bosses, one of whom was very competent and skilled.

  13. Peter Cohen says:

    Martin Thorpe is correct.

  14. I suggest that the author look at Timor Leste’s economy, and ask what the impact would be of acceding to the ASEAN Economic Community, which would be a requirement of ASEAN membership. Then ask whether Timor Leste should actually be seeking to join ASEAN at all.

  15. Joshua Goldberg says:

    Come on New Mandala. You can do better than this. This is pure ‘grade D’ gossip.

  16. neptunian says:

    “the stats indicate that inequality among Indians is worse”

    We are talking about graduate unemployment here, not inequality. The indians have always suffered huge inequality, no one is arguing about that.

    As for hiring discrimination!! I believe this dead horse is being beaten blue and black all over again! Check your stats. How many graduates do the Govt and GLCs hire per year? Institutional discrimination by Govt and GLCs cannot be denied. For private sector (MNCs, Chinese smes etc), they hire based on needs. I myself have a wanita melayu as account head. My neighbour, an M&E consultant have 80% malay staff & 100% malay engineers. Needs based – get that into your head!

  17. Peter Cohen says:

    “Worse, it has also been discovered that at least US$731 million from the above misappropriated sum had found its way into the Prime Minister, Dato’ Seri Najib Razak’s personal bank account.  Despite the gravity of the crime, our Treasurer-General, the most senior civil servant responsible for managing our hundreds of billions of ringgit of annual tax revenue has shown only nonchalance in the scandal…”
     
    “Any auditor worth their salt would immediately tell you that they will not be able to complete a financial audit for the year without the “opening balance” or prior year accounts.  In this case, it is clear that there have been no audited and certified accounts for March 2013 and 2014 given that Deloitte has withdrawn its endorsement….”

    (Sarawak Report, 15 March 2017)

    Yes, I am definitely confident in Malaysian economic statistics.
     

  18. HRK says:

    We had this already with the air-marshal FooFoo.

  19. Martin

    Booster, I like that. Oddly enough, if I had to describe my philosophical leanings, it would be more towards Post-Keynesian socialism, not neo-liberalism.

    Here’s what the data says to me:

    1. Malaysian inequality has come down but is still too high. I have at various times proposed corporate gains tax and estate taxes, as well as mandatory tax filing (less than half the working population has a tax file and even fewer make the annual submission):

    http://econsmalaysia.blogspot.my/2014/10/talking-about-tax-reform-capital-gains.html

    Both income taxes and corporate taxes remain below what optimal tax theory suggests. Redistribution via BR1M is too wide, and too low as well. We’ve also documented evidence of excessive CEO pay, in one instance with one person earning 3000x more than the average worker in his firm.

    2. Household debt is dangerously high, particularly at the bottom of the income distribution. The leverage ratio for the bottom 15% or so is 8x annual income (which is actually an improvement from a couple of years ago). This group is incredibly vulnerable to economic shocks. There’s anecdotal evidence that some workers have negative take home pay, after deducting loan repayments at source.

    3. Real wage growth over the past two years has been marginal, but especially for the middle of the income distribution. Income growth is strongest at the very bottom, but this group continues to earn less than the minimum wage. No, it’s not due to non-enforcement, it’s due to people just not having full-time paying jobs.

    4. Less than 50% of the work force is in formal work with a steady salary. 45% have no pension coverage, and of those that do, 60%-70% will have inadequate savings on retirement. A quarter of the bottom 40% of the income distribution are households headed by retirees.

    5. The household savings rate is abysmal, averaging 0.8% of GDP since 2006. Take away the mandatory contributions to EPF and the household savings rate turns negative – people have been borrowing to live on for the past decade:

    http://econsmalaysia.blogspot.my/2015/12/malaysias-household-savings-rate.html

    6. Housing is increasingly unaffordable:

    http://www.krinstitute.org/Publications-@-Making_Housing_Affordable.aspx

    Fixing this will be near impossible (constitutional and regulatory issues), while demographic trends suggest the potential of turning into a housing boom/bust:

    http://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/09/26/danger-of-dip-in-demand-lurks-an-ageing-population-can-lead-to-a-sluggish-market-for-homes-and-every/

    Plenty to worry about, and apart from the wage data, all from the “rubbery”, “faked” official statistics.

  20. Neptunian

    Do you have a source for your assertion? I tried looking it up but the data is not broken down by ethnic background. What I did find was interesting in itself:

    http://www.data.gov.my/data/ms_MY/dataset/peratusan-status-pekerjaan-graduan-universiti-awam-tahun-2015/resource/35a9bef9-a47c-4614-ab15-3ec40488cf95

    http://www.data.gov.my/data/ms_MY/dataset/peratusan-status-pekerjaan-graduan-institut-pendidikan-tinggi-swasta-tahun-2015/resource/0ea41f7e-a20d-45c4-9738-060258133d78

    http://www.data.gov.my/data/ms_MY/dataset/peratusan-status-pekerjaan-graduan-politeknik-tahun-2015/resource/2c1a2f27-a3a1-4285-a0c4-6703a2bfecd7

    http://www.data.gov.my/data/ms_MY/dataset/peratusan-status-pekerjaan-graduan-kolej-komuniti-tahun-2015/resource/ac95ab5f-414e-4c3a-a8ac-9815b02698ef

    It looks like graduate unemployment is systematically higher in poorer states, and generally higher for IPTS versus IPTA (but don’t hold me to that).

    Also, what bearing does hiring discrimination play?

    http://repository.um.edu.my/91447/1/Lee%26Muhammed2013_Degrees%20of%20discrimination_grad%20hiring%20in%20Malaysia.pdf

    Lastly, I think you’re wrong about Malaysian Indians – the stats indicate that inequality among Indians is worse than either Bumis and Chinese, and social mobility worse:

    http://www.krinstitute.org/Publications-@-Climbing_The_Ladder-;_Socio-Economic_Mobility_in_Malaysia.aspx