Comments

  1. Mark Dunn says:

    Chris- why do you feel a coup is on the horizon? Who do you suspect has reason and power to organize one?

  2. “If unsubstantiated gossip is “insightful” then stupidity is wisdom.”

    Yes, but you have to understand that these people all “know” things that the rest of us don’t.

    Just don’t ask how the “know” what they “know” cuz if they told us no doubt they’d have to kill us.

    The simple fact of the matter is that most of the clickbait that this site now publishes on Thailand is the online equivalent of the apocryphal Special Forces/former CIA Operative one hears about meeting on bar stools in Pattaya.

  3. Morgan says:

    Many people do not recognise that in a primitive country such as Thailand, where the mean intelligence is very low and communications are hampered by incompetence and a lack of social responsibility, then gossip is one of the major means of communications, and it is remarkably effective, according to my own observation anyway.

    Not recognising this means that the importance and often-times the benefit of ‘word-of-mouth’ passage of information/news/nintaa/krasip in primitive societies passes one by which is not so clever for anyone commenting on the politics of those societies.

    Gossip, substantiated or not, provides a valuable insight into culture and often, represents a large slice of what is, or what becomes, history in the absence of documents – a large hole in unsophisticated societies like Thailand.

    Further, what constitutes ‘substantiated’ and indeed ‘stupidity’, is not a matter of blacks and whites but a sliding scale of greys.

  4. Morgan says:

    Well, it’s a view. It isn’t my view but my view is formed from a number of things that are not available to most. Doesn’t make it right of course, but it does explain why it isn’t the same as yours.

    All of the points you make are reasonable, but have other interpretations – and I don’t agree with yours. In particular, I believe Prem abandoned the Angela option because he knew it wasn’t going to fly. At about the same time, Prayuth began to perceive that he was winning the loyalty of the Clown Prince in his multi-colored (and ever-changing) coat. Voila…

    Rama X (elect) is, in my view, already finished. He had a chance to make something of the opportunity but blew it on the blandishments of Prayuth and Prawit and the lure of a few dollars more. I think that (as opposed to what I thought was the case no more than a few short weeks ago), the opportunity of a clandestine tryst with Thaksin has now disappeared, though I believe it became known to and frightened the cr*p out of Prayuth, which explains the recent resurgent interest in taxing and penalising the Shinawatra name into oblivion – an example of the immoderate and megalomaniacal zeal the man is capable of.

    Time will take care of the (in my view) thoroughly unwholesome and repugnant Prem. I suspect the Thai people will take care of the other players and their absentee monarch, and I say that from the viewpoint of having a very dismal assessment of Thais in general and their ability in general to get off their bottoms where matters of principle are concerned.

  5. Mark Dunn says:

    You give Prem to much credit. While he is a gifted politician we should never forget that he was/is nothing more than the servant of Rama lX and now of Rama X.

    While it is true that Prem was a primary player in the 2007 coup, he was a bystander for the 2014 coup d’état. I suspect the seeds of the 2014 coup were planted by the dowager Queen, before her 2012 stroke, in order to ensure a smooth succession to the throne for her son. If She weren’t a mental vegetable she would probably be very pleased with how well her wish was carried out by Prayuth.

    It’s also possible that you may be underestimating the political skill of Rama X. If you recall, before the death of his father, there was much speculation that Prem would ensure his sister succeeded to the throne instead of him. It would appear that Vajiralongkorn and Prayuth proved to be more than a match for Prem.

    I have little doubt that the palace PR Machine is very busy promoting a good image for Rama X. With the considerable resources at its disposal ( not to mention the cultural, political and religious capital of the monarchy ) it’s quite possible that they will succeed in promoting that image. Image is, after all, more about perception that reality.

  6. Peter Cohen says:

    Cambodia has been a single party dictatorship, de facto and de jure, for at least 45 years.

  7. Mark Dunn says:

    If unsubstantiated gossip is “insightful” then stupidity is wisdom.

  8. DHL says:

    Very balanced presentation, thanks. As I argued before, the four ‘Race Laws’ were not so new and outrageous in their content as was often stated; in fact they reiterated many of the traditional and constitutional rights of women to property, inheritance and care of children.

  9. Ryan K says:

    Being from the USofA, in some meaningful ways, I see similarities between Rama X and Mr. Trump. The greatest danger of a Trump presidency may not be a turn towards authoritarianism, but a power vacuum caused by weakness.

    Sadly, a nation gets what it deserves and we have a “hot potato” occupying the White House and center of power, (as is the case of Rama X), and no one knows what he will do or say or act upon or blurt out, without realizing or giving much thought to his words and actions, which do have major consequences.
    The ancient Greeks knew why: A Man’s Character Is His Fate. In that case, Trump’s presidency may be doomed. Just as Rama X’s day of reckoning (including Prayuth and his gang) is fast approaching.

    The Chakri Dynasty is doomed, and Prayuth and his gang, are desperate to plug the many holes in the bucket using Article 112 and 44 to coerce, threaten, and instill fear in most Thais. Yet Sia O keeps doing the “unthinkable” and keeps pushing the boundaries (Does he even know what a boundary is?) and collectively, we keep shaking our heads in disbelief, wondering how low will be go? Well for someone who has no control over his impulses, anger and rage, and has shown an appalling sense of disregard for decency, and has a lot of free time on his hands, the old adage is true: An idle mind is the devil’s workshop. How unlike his father, who at least cared enough to build a “good public image” of himself, with the help of the well financed palace PR machine.

  10. Charlie Barnett says:

    As Trevor alluded this is only half, if that, of the story of helping our near neighbours. Bruce had a long association with the Rotary Club of Mosman in leading his expert team of specialist Hand and Upper Limb Surgeons and associated physiotherapists to Vietnam to introduce this specialty where it had not existed before. His leadership and inspired work continues throughout that country in every province with thousands of patients benefitting from the diagnosis, operation and therapeutic recovery from accident, injury and disease.

  11. Good riddance is my opinion, it’s becoming clear that the Chakri dynasty is in the process of blowing itself up

    And yet, après lui, le déluge. The proverbial Augeian stables will eventually be washed away with the blood of many innocent Thais. It may be a necessary cleanser, but concerning the gravity of this possibility, it is still distasteful to read suchRobespierreian cheerleading on web fora by individuals who most likely will not be involved, or at least, insulated from its effects.

  12. Morgan says:

    Because Prem, the great meddler has been behind the last 2 coups and half a dozen other anti-democratic actions in Thailand. He is the instigator behind the ‘network monarchy’ (or ‘deep state’ if you prefer). His responsibility for treasonous actions is greater than Prayuth and Prawit who are merely the not-very-bright patsies. The front men. He is the one who created the monster of Thaksin, and the one who subsequently created the myth that Thaksin wanted to supplant the King in the country’s affections.

    Do I really have to be explaining this Chris?

  13. Peter Cohen says:

    Malaysia does, spends millions on the Muslim Cham people who are regarded as Malay.

  14. Kelenger says:

    Actually Ahok is brought to court because he (thought he) defended Islam. Ahok views discriminating a govermental position based on religion is a discrimination and his consience and sense of justice say that this not fair nor noble. Since Ahok believes that Islam is a religion with noble teachings he tried to reconcile this by asking prominent muslims clerics such as Gus Dur and he was informed that in fact Ahok’s views on Almaidah 51 is correct, the verse is not meant to discriminate a non-muslim candidate for a leadership.

    Unfortunately Ahok was “mislead” by this information as there are still many that interpret Almaidah as a religius order not to elect non-muslim as a leader and as such Ahok deemed blasphemous for commenting on Islamic teaching whilst he is an infidel and is not a credible student of Islamic teachings. This is what brought him to court.

    Actually there is a parallel of what Ahok said and what other world leaders such as Obama, Hillary, and many others said in the past but they got away with it. No criticism at all, let alone jail term.

    They all say that ISIS is not Islam. Same as Ahok they tried to defend Islam since what ISIS has done is against their consience as a decent human being whilst they think Islam is noble. But in fact they also did what Ahok did because:
    First, they are kuffars. Second they do not have authority in Islamic teaching (whilst in contrast Al Baghdadi himself is a student of Islam from a young age and he got a post graduate degree in Islamic theology). Third, they probably did confirm their views on Islam with other prominent “moderate” cleric but what they do not realize is that there are thousands or even millions that do not subscirbe to that views.

    The lesson learn here is that if you are a non-muslim be careful not to try to defend islam on issues related to Islamic teaching based on your conscience or common sense like what Ahok did.

    If asked whether ISIS is Islamic or not do not try to defend it with your consience and common sense (like Ahok and other leaders did). What you should say is simply that you do not know since you know Islam less than Baghdadi and friends. All you should say is that there are those within Islam who say no and others who say yes ISIS is Islamic. You are kuffar so stay away from making comments about Islamic teaching at least while you are in Indonesia (the poster boy of moderate Islam in the world, btw)

  15. Andrew,

    Your original comment did not make it clear that your questions were rhetorical – you asked for answers after all. But if I misinterpreted them, mea culpa.

    1. With respect to Q1-Q3, I don’t have the exact details, which is why I answered the way I did. I can however obtain them if you wish, just give me a few days to reach out to my contacts. Would that be satisfactory?

    The presence of administered prices is/was a frequent key criticism of Malaysia’s calculation of the CPI, which is one reason why DOSM excluded them from the new Core Inflation index. So yes, I fully understand the reason why you’re asking this, and also the reason why I pointed to the Core Index. Per the technical notes in latest inflation report:

    “Commencing with the January 2016 CPI, Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) produces and disseminates the core inflation for Malaysia. The Malaysia’s core inflation excludes nine of the Consumer Price Index’s most volatile items of fresh food which consists of meat, fish, seafood, eggs, coconuts & nuts, vegetables, potatoes & other tubers, spices and fresh fruit, as well as administered prices of goods and services includes cooking oils, flour & other cereal grains, sugar, alcoholic beverages & tobacco, water supply, electricity, gas, fuels & lubricants for personal transport equipment and transport services.”

    As an addendum, I privately calculate a Pain Index as well, which basically covers the food and transport indices of the CPI, which are the items most people buy frequently. As of January 2017, this index saw 5.3% growth, compared to the 3.2% of the CPI. That’s probably closer to what people think inflation is at.

    2. I don’t think you understood my answer, though to be fair it presumed knowledge of what FDI encompasses. MIDA does indeed approve investment projects, but FDI covers more than that, and those numbers are tabulated elsewhere. Roughly only 1/3 of Malaysian FDI inflow would be covered under MITI/MIDA, with the remainder of it compiled by DOSM for the IIP report.

    UNCTAD actually does get our numbers from Malaysia (there’s no discrepancy between theirs and ours). I pointed to UNCTAD as they are a very convenient source for obtaining the overall data, as their database has the downloadable time series, and includes both inward and outward stocks and flows. Not unfortunately at the SITC level, as I’m told they charge for that.

    BTW, how many countries actually release FDI stats by 4-digit SITC code? That’s not a rhetorical question, just curious.

    3. I’m at a loss why you feel offended by my answer. This was an admission of my ignorance, not an attempt to “one-up” you (or is it “one-down”?). Exactly as stated, it’s not my field of study, and if you say that there is a problem with the IO Tables, I take that statement at face value because my presumption is that you know more about it than I do. Now that I’m aware of the problem however, I will be trying to find the reason. You’ve made me curious, again.

    4. Funnily enough, your last line is what I actually had in mind – perceived inflation is always higher than the CPI, yes everywhere. Perhaps I should have said it was a stylised fact instead. Forgive my hyperbole – the phenomenon is so common and so often remarked upon by specialists in the field that I thought it was a reasonable statement. The exception appears to be Japan, where expectations of deflation exceed the rate of change in the CPI (i.e. in the exact opposite direction).

    5. Yes, that OECD paper does suggest interesting ways of minimising the difference between the two, but that would apply to answers to perception surveys (i.e. pretty much just useful for central banks and other policy makers), and not public perception at large.

    6. I suspect they are done, just not released. Partly I think because DOSM probably thinks nobody is really interested (you have to admit IO tables are really esoteric for the general public, and even for most economists), and partly because of their inherent conservatism. I don’t think I’d read too much into that, but I’ll look into it. There’s a new Chief Statistician, and I’m due for a courtesy call.

    7. It’s not just state governments, that’s an ongoing problem between ministries and agencies too. I’m not talking here just about DOSM data either. They had to form a high level committee with MOUs and all, just to get IRB and Customs to coordinate – mind you, these are agencies under the same ministry.

    There’s currently an effort to regularise the legal status of data sharing between the different branches of the government (I was at the workshop a couple of months ago), but it will be a few years before that takes fruit unfortunately. I chafe at this too, as there is a bunch of internal data I’d love to share and publish but can’t e.g. I’m sitting on what amounts to real time data on Malaysian wages. It’s incredibly frustrating.

    8. Lastly, you are of course entitled to your opinion, and I respect that. I will also respect well-founded arguments backed up by evidence, some of which you have brought. I have no problem with being proven wrong – we’re all just searching for the truth.

    Under those circumstances, I am and will investigate to my own satisfaction those areas which you say are problematical. If there is indeed sleight of hand going on, I will publicly say so, even if I can’t provide details (given OSA and all). Fair?

  16. Chris Beale says:

    Marc – can you cite some scholars for you claim “The Abangan – Santri divide has ceased to be important decades ago. The orthodox Islam of the Santri has won completely. The openly practicing Abangan are a tiny, tiny minority now, often persecuted. Many scholars have written about this development.”

  17. Chris Beale says:

    Prayut’s Thailand could be added to the list.

  18. Chris Beale says:

    Morgan – why do you lump Prem with Prayut and Prawit ?

  19. Teresa says:

    What kind of moderation?

  20. Teresa says:

    We talk of bullies at school, the greatest bully of all is our present government and past governments in their dealings with a poorer, weaker neighbour, East Timor!
    As many other Australians, I, too, feel ashamed of my government.
    Mr Turnbull , show yourself a strong leader and right the wrong!
    Repair the injustice done to a poorer nation and one that stood in friendship beside our Men in World War IIat the risk of Timorese life.