Comments

  1. notdisappointed says:

    Just a bit of an overstatement don’t you think, “inflicted such immense damage and carnage”.

  2. Iwan Sugiarto says:

    The writer doesn’t understand the meaning of reactionary. Reactionary is to go back in time. In Indonesian history there was no state, as far as I can tell that had Shariah Law in the way that groups like FPI are advocating. In fact what these groups are advocating is revolutionary

    The Javanese state, and Indonesia is a Javanese state, has always been non-sectarian, placing secular interest above religion. Hardline groups want to change that.

    The assumption that once hardline groups or hardline parties like PKS take over Jakarta, they will be able to take over the Presidency. There is a blanket assumption that the likes of Anies and Sandi will be able to perform brilliantly. Both of these two gentlemen have no experience in running a local government entity. Ahok and Djarot as of today have 23 years combined experience running municipal governments in Indonesia

    If Anies screws up, and he will, because he is out of depth, whatever temporary boast hardline groups will give, will quickly dissipate. The problem with ALOT of political commentators here is they only talk about politics, the notion that politicians actually have to perform is not that important or taken for granted. If I were to ask any of the posters here to give a detailed run down of the budgetary process of City of Jakarta, I would bet maybe 1-2 people if we are lucky would be able to do it. there is a lot sizzle in the New Mandala, not much steak.

  3. Chris – You seem to be suggesting that the separatists identify themselves as “Siamese”. I suppose this “insight” comes from the same lofty plane where Isan’s separation from Thailand is imminent.

  4. Anurat says:

    I agree with all of what Pavin said, but only thing is that we should also consider broader picture of Thai political economy. Thailand has been run under absolutism anymore and Vajiralongkorn is not the main decider of public policy or directions of development, same as the case of Bhumibol. I do not think the leader group of capitalist scaring any characteristic of the new king, instead, it is the recent difficulty to accumulate of surplus value. While the neighboring countries have been able to increase an economic benefit, early leader in the region like Thailand seem paralyzed to do the same thing. So if there is any fear that could frighten anyone in Thailand, even King himself, it is the fear of a downfall of economic and its related results.

  5. David Camroux says:

    In commenting on postings by Thai colleagues we are faced with linguistic / cultural challenges. We cannot refer to the person as “Mr Smith” but will inevitably use a first name (exacerbated by the difficulty for the uncultivated ‘farang’ to pronounce Thai family names). As a result use of first names may reveal simply convenience or, as is my case, degrees of intellectual admiration and academic fraternal affection.

    So, Dr Pavin has once again demonstrated the characteristics that has forced upon him his exile: intellectual courage and intellectual lucidity, the latter stemming from his understanding of the system from within. Not simply a question of Oriental inscrutability… but basic anthropological understanding.

    As an IR / comparative politics person I am excited (as a social scientist) and appalled – not to say scared – as a citizen to see parallels with Vajiralongkorn’s behavior and that of “The Donald” (aka as the present president of the US). Being an appalling sexual predator, having the tax payer finance your dereliction of duty (Florida . Munich) can all be camouflaged by a cloud of accusations of ‘false news’ or, the Thai equivalent, launching a ‘lese majesté’ case.

    Yes, checks and balances do not necessarily work, Yes General Prayuth, like those in Berlin in 1933 you may have thought you he had supported a “useful idiot” to advance their own interests… but they may simply have created a monster capable on undermining their own projects and, ultimately, losing all.

    What Pavin I trust will tease out in further research is the distinction between two things. On the one hand, Vajiralongkorn’s efficacy at the elite level (the great con performed on the junta and the reassuring sops offered to the Bangkok Establishment) and, on the other, by dint of who he is and what he does, the destruction of the useful myth created by his father, as the Monarch as somehow the ‘father of his people’.

  6. Chris Beale says:

    Michael Wilson – the separatists who have currently inflicted such immense damage and carnage, are hardly “septuagenarian historians, with a kink”.

  7. Chris Beale says:

    Insightful. It needs to be pointed out that Vajiralongkorn is himself in something of a fearful bind – I.e. his German residency. Thus, the ban on following Marshall, Pavin, and Somsak currently ONLY applies to Thai citizens. If widened, it risks jeopardising Vajiralongkorn’s German residency, which he may need for health. Bavarian air infinitely cleaner than Bangkok’s – both literally, and politically. Speaking of the latter – does Thailand’s Privy Councillor necessarily, constitutionally “work” under the King’ “direct command” ?

  8. Johpa Deumlaokeng says:

    Fear only slowly looses its grip, and rarely goes out of fashion. What this long time observer of the Thai political scene finds most remarkable is the rapidity of Vajiralongkorn’s actions, ranging from the exorcising of the Vajarodaya family to the crafting of constitutional amendments to, perhaps, the recent replacement of the 1932 Siamese Revolution memorial plaque. It appears to me that he has been honing a plan upon his succession to the throne for a very long time, hiding his guile, at least from me, with the facade of a dolt. I am both impressed with Vajiralongkorn’s exercise of power and very, very afraid for the future of the Kingdom.

  9. piangdin says:

    Fear seems to be ineffective to Aj. Pavin now, and it is becoming less and less so to an increasing number of Thais.

  10. Thai cit says:

    For those who don’t know about the Thai King. I am so proud to say that Thai king is the richest king in the world Hooray!. Yes. Queen Elizabeth is 2nd. (but Thai people earn less than 10USD is more than 80% of the population ) and people are so poor.
    and we have to pay tax for this dude to enjoy his luxuary parties with his mistresses in Germany for more than millions USD a year.

  11. Christine says:

    Way to go, Pavin.
    People need to keep on speaking out and speaking out. All hope aside, this horrible thing is unfolding under the eyes of the international community. The terror — and that’s what it is — has swept up people even remotely involved with the country.
    I don’t know anyone who isn’t afraid. Except, perhaps, for clueless tourists.
    Tourists handing their dollars over to the Land of Smiles is like visitors handing over their money to Kim Jong-un.
    Unfortunately, this unfolding reign of terror, hidden behind the facade of funerary rites and respect for the past king, could not exist without Rama X’s billion dollar inheritance, much of which was accumulated during the reign of the sainted Rama IX, much of which is salted abroad. Nor could it exist without decades of US support for monarchy and military, making democracy a near impossiblity.

    Follow the money. Keep the spotlight on the king and his prisons, the unexplained deaths, the fate of Srirasmi and BBC reporter Jonathan Head, the terrified royal servants. Most of all, keep the spotlight on the relatives of the people who speak up, hostages in what is now a Hostage Nation.
    This is not only a reign of terror, it’s a reign of cowards who go after wives and children, siblings, parents, elders, teenagers in their quest for money and power.

  12. Kimkong says:

    Yes, politics does play a big role in igniting the Vietnam syndrome in Cambodia. Illegal immigration and other sensitive issues will definitely not go away some time soon, given the current situation. Cambodians’ sentiment of their Vietnamese counterparts is for sure deteriorating, not ameliorating unless there are real and appropriate actions on the part of the government.

  13. Joshua Goldberg says:

    Pavin is spot on.

    How did you previously read the situation?

  14. Falang says:

    slowly but surely the history of Thailand is being rewritten right in front of our eyes .

  15. Andrew MacGregor Marshall says:

    Excellent and brave article. Thank you. Meanwhile, we now know that the 1932 commemoration plaque was torn out on April 5, the day before Vajiralongkorn signed the new constitution. This is an explicit declaration of war by King X and the royalists against those who want a free and fair Thailand.

  16. Ann Norman says:

    I thank Ahjan Pavin Chachavalpongun for this article and for putting up with all the persecution it takes to just be a historian or a journalist these days. I am very concerned to know if ex-Princess Srirasmi is still alive. I have heard that she is dead. We should continue to demand that the palace or the junta produce a recent picture of her to prove she is still alive and well. Furthermore, Jumpol Manmai should not be in the secret prison on the King’s property and this prison should be searched to find who is in it. The Thai Alliance for Human Rights would love to know how many of the disappeared are actually at this prison. The Thai Alliance for Human Rights did translate the public documents proving the existence of the secret prison, after they were pointed out by Khun Somsak Jeamteerasukal. You can see the original and translated documents here and how they match the google image of the palace: https://www.facebook.com/notes/ann-norman/the-disappearance-of-jumpol-manmai-held-at-a-secret-prison-at-the-kings-palace/10155209326538586/

  17. Abdul-Kareem Abdul-Rahman says:

    As for why the film makers used the term ‘Malay muslim’ for these Thais, it is to bring to the fore and make explicit the Malay identity of these communities that has been long buried by official and mainstream narratives regarding these ‘Thai muslims’.

    It has to be said that the reason that this identity is buried is that this process is often a strategy used by colonising powers in the subjugation of colonised nations. Former Siam, the ancestor of Thailand, was a colonising power in its expansionist drive south (and in other directions) in the 18th and 19th century.

    However, it is pleasing to note that this is slowly changing, if not in the official circles of the Bangkok elite, at least by the common Thai. And also in the international academic, cultural and political communities. Examples include:

    mainstream Thai newspaper in 2017: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30307667

    a travel show from a mainstream Thai channel in 2016: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4LapgxeQqsY

    UN agency in 2016: http://www.unesco.org/new/en/education/resources/online-materials/single-view/news/an_alternative_to_conflict_in_thailand_through_bilingual_lit/

  18. Abdul-Kareem Abdul-Rahman says:

    notdisappointed

    I am heartened that you acknowledge that they are Malay Thais. This is exactly my point: why deny them their heritage, culture and identity?

    However, I’m afraid you might not be familiar with the difference between the term ‘malay’ as a noun and adjective, and Malaysian as an adjective.

    You use the term ‘Chinese Malay’. This term does not exist. What does, is ‘Chinese Malaysian’ (Or as is commonly, though I think wrongly used in Malaysia, Singapore and elsewhere: ‘Malaysian Chinese’). This reveals that you think Malay and Malaysian are the same. Hence your problem with the term ‘Malay muslim’ in your original reply on 26 Jan 2017 (http://www.newmandala.org/visions-violence-southern-thailand/#comment-1932445), as if it meant Malaysian muslim.

    No, this is wrong. Malay is refers to ethnicity and Malaysian to nationality. So there is and should be nothing problematic in the use of the phrase ‘Malay muslim’ regarding citizens of Thailand. Just as there is no problem with, for instance, the use in Malaysia of the phrase ‘Thai buddhist’ (or as is used in Malaysia ‘Siam Malaysia’ e.g. https://www.facebook.com/Persatuan-SIAM-Malaysia-1158232104192064/), or ‘Chinese christian’.

    You seem to have seen this logic in your later reply of 17th April. There is no problem with referring to American citizens as Thai buddhists, Syrian muslims or whatever other ethnic and/or religious term.

  19. Lim Boon Lui says:

    This is not the same country that I use to know.

  20. Morgan says:

    Well, this is not how I have previously read the situation, but it pains me to think now that my previous view was more wishful thinking than reality.

    I think Pavin may be right in what he says and in what he almost says. Depressing though rational people may find it to be. Thailand has spent many years peering into the abyss, and now it seems that the abyss is peering back.