I would also suggest to carefully read what i stated. I said almost half of the killed were killed by PDRC armed militants, not half or more. Out of memory i may list a few incidents: during the Ramkhamhaeng clashes 3 Red Shirts were killed by PDRC protesters (1 PDRC fighter was killed by Red Shirts). During the Thai Japan stadium clash 1 police officer was killed by PDRC fighters. Several people were killed and their bodies dumped, one such dump was even captured by a CTV camera where the body was thrown into the river, another was dumped at Prachachoen, dressed in a PDRC shirt, but later turned out to be a Red Shirt ( http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2014/03/13/1394711938/ ). 2 Police officers were killed by a PDRC sniper during the clash at Pan Fa/Democracy Monument. Lets not forget the Laksi incident, during which several people were shot and injured by the Popcorn shooters, one victim died 6 months later as a result of his injuries. And that is just from my memory, without even going into my files.
N-Nostitz: It is my impression that the Red/Black Shirts had a total monopoly of M79 grenade launcher violent attacks, indiscriminatelyr killing children and women and civilians, during the 2010 very violent Red Shirts protests led by UDD’s Jatuporn/Nattawut and the late Gen. Khattiya. The Red/Black Shirts armory also included high velocity assault rifles, pistols and home-made sharpened spears, among other things. Their killings were punctuated by widespread arson that gutted a number of Bangkok buildings including The World Trade Center/Central Shopping malls at Rajaprasong (my niece’ shop among them).
N-Nostitz must possess deadly statistics of the number of dead/maimed attributable to the PDRC, Red/Black Shirts and the military. N-Nostitz cited as fact that about half or more of the political mayhems could be blamed to the yellow shirts. I would appreciate N-Nostotz sharing his statistics accordingly. Personally I had not kept count. But from where I stood as a very scared civilian/bystander during the M79 grenade attacks, shootings etc; the lethally armed Red/Black Shirts were carrying out most of near one-sided attacks and the victims had been also been near one-sidedly the non-Red Shirts camp.
The only torture claim during the protests period I could recall was the dubious story of one garbage man who made that claim at a Gotee protest rally dutifully reported by N-Nostitz, the Red Shirt saga chronicler with an uncanny photographic memory.
Chris: Suharto was not only the most corrupt, he was also the 20th century’s greatest butcher. Despite the butchery and the billions Suharto and his family looted, Suharto never stood trial for any of his crimes. He never paid back a penny of the billions his family stole. He remained revered, courted by his country’s politicians and international businessmen up to his resignation and his death, and thereafter.
Corruption was/is indeed cool in Indonesia during Suharto’s rule and after. And corruption paid handsomely too, thank you, must have been Suharto’s unwritten epitaph!
Vichai N, again more polemics and stereotypes that are just not exactly correct…
No, many members of the Thai intelligentsia have been in strong opposition of the PDRC and their aims. May i just mention groups like Nitirat and many other scholars?
And no, Red Shirt armed militants have not fired indiscriminately M79 grenades. Some may have fired M79 grenades, but if that would have been indiscriminate we would have seen a far higher number of dead. You also seem to swipe the fact under the table that almost half of the dead of 2013/2014 have been killed by armed militants of the PDRC. Another gruesome fact is that under the PDRC it became fashion to torture people in often horrific ways. Some of them were friends of mine, such as several Special Branch officers. I may have shared the same fate if i would not have escaped the abduction attempt by Buddha Issara’s look nong at the constitution court.
As to the “middle class”, sorry, but the middle classes are well represented in the Red Shirts as well. The PDRC was, especially in the later stages, not driven by the middle class, who remained at home when things turned a bit violent (especially after the Laksi incident where armed PDRC militants appeared in the open for the first time), but by southern gangsters, to the most part.
Please do not distort history so it serves your opinions.
Thank you so much for raising world consciousness about this ongoing plight of the Vietnamese fishermen, their families and communities, based on your well researched and concrete evidence. I do hope some worldwide grassroots collective efforts will take place to assist and empower these poor fishermen to deal with Chinese aggressive practices as demonstrated.
Indonesia’s Mohamed Suharto has received a dubious honor from Transparency International, which named the former Indonesian president the most corrupt world leader of the past 20 years. With his family’s takings estimated at between $15 billion and $35 billion, Suharto topped such notorious kleptocrats as Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines ($5 billion to $10 billion) and Nigeria’s Sani Abacha ($2 billion to $5 billion).
Had it not been for the cross border trade and smuggling that supported the black economy during Ne Win’s reign, and the later economic migration as well as refugees from the civil war to Thailand, Burmese society and economy would not have functioned.
The hit film Narasuen helped change Thai attitudes towards their neighbours to some extent followed by the appeal and first hand experience of tourism. It’s only a start however. There’s still a great deal to strive for in improving both elite and communal relations between the neighbours, not least the important issues of the ruthless exploitation of migrant workers, human trafficking and slavery.
I was interested to see your figure of 6% growth. May I ask how you calculated it as there are such varying figures for the number of Christians in Cambodia now, and historically.
VichaiN – re. Indonesia’s Suharto, you are deranged. Suharto – Bapak Pembangunan, Father of Development – undoubtedly laid the basis for Indonesia’s current relative prosperity.
Professor Jory – and many others – will no doubt be interested in the book Disruptive Power, the Crisis of the State in the Digital Age, by Oxford Trudeau Scholar, Taylor Owen, founder of opencanada.org.
It’s not that difficult. Jokowi is a small-town kampung Javanese in a very big city. I remain convinced that however much he has failed as a technocrat, Jokowi is an honest man, with kampong principles, in a cynical and narcissistic Capitol where such values are trampled. Agree with him or not, and I have and have not, how much has Jokowi pocketed since he was Mayor of Solo and then Governor of Jakarta ? That ALONE is a new paradigm for Indonesia. He wants to be everyone’s grandfather, but he is a man of principle, he is not weak, he just may not be presidential material, and if that his worst fault, count me as a supporter of his.
You made the right point , Bernd, and let me complete it with a short sentence : the Monarchy -and paranoid Royalism – has always been and remains to this day the worst enemy of democracy in Thailand
it’s amazing – your hate against Thaksin for years but otherwise are quite eyed –
The fact is that Thaksin was convicted only 1 time – and in a very dubious judgment.
although you hunts Thaksin since now more like 10 years and tried to take legal action against him, this is a little very thin…
have you ever thought why democratic countries have no military rulers?
– Why thailand “democratic” lists but democracy is always prevented?
– why you will vote on 07.August on the then 20. constitution? (Which until today will be the most undemocratic)
– are politicians so corrupt?
– why ruled the military for so many decades in Thailand if Thailand is a democracy?
– why never was a coup maker to court – but the most of them had become Privy Council?
– who is responsible for the thammasat massacre? Communists? – or because the king brought back Thanom K. from exile and king and queen had been the first who had visited him in Wat Bovorn? then the students took to the streets – that’s why the massacre was organized …..
this topic is of course of broad interest… even topically right now in Australia where we have an oppressive Liberal party that represents the wealthy 10% of Australians continuing its historical success in attracting around 50% of Australia’s voters
votes from the latest election are still being counted and it appears that social media has had significant affect both directly in promoting more rational democratic policies and also in facilitating the organising of the popular Getup pressure group and other political parties in recruiting volunteers handing out How to Vote flyers at polling places.
Indeed N-Nostitz perhaps the majority vote with their stomachs, all other considerations discarded. Greg Lopez made that same observation with respect to the predominantly Christian (thus religious rights or wrongs take a backseat to digestive priorities during elections) voters of Sarawak that guaranteed victory to another deeply corrupt leader, Malaysian PM Najib.
But the Thai intelligentsia knew better. And opportunistic Thai generals had the security of the kingdom to safeguard, or so they said. The near civil war was provoked, N-Nostitz, by those heavily armed Red Shirts with digestive disorders who aired their ire literally by launching rocket propelled grenades indiscriminately at Bangkok’s better fed middle-class who could no longer stomach Thaksin’s corruption and loudly demanded Thaksin be held judicially accountable.
Bernd: “It is cool to be corrupt” impunity culture had irrevocably reached its puke limits in Thailand with Thaksin’s corruptive rule. Thaksin even orchestrated that scandal where hundreds of millions of Baht were regularly skimmed from the National Lottery to be gifted to the Crown Prince for chrissakes! That National Lottery scandal was lese majeste to the Nth degree btw according to Andrew MacGreggor Marshall.
Human rights advocates didn’t merely object to Jokowi’s executions of drug traffickers when they happened to be foreigners. They disapproved of the execution of Indonesians as well. It is a funny thing, but human rights advocates tend not to be racists.
Jokowi didn’t start ‘a populist war’ on drugs. He started the war himself in a speech at Gaja Mada University in December 2014, when he couldn’t have known that it would turn out to be popular. How genuine that support was is hard to estimate. It reminded me of the PKS’s campaign for the execution of Indonesians guilty of corruption until its own president was found guilty.
Jokowi visited Sumatra shortly after his inauguration on 20 October 2014 and made various promises about tackling the haze problem. Indonesia and its neighbours suffered more from haze in 2015 than it had for a long time. How can this author claim that Jokowi’s reaction was ‘more decisive’?
The Brexit vote, which came as a surprise to most well-informed observers, should be used as a warning against publishing early predictions of election results. Dr Tomsa would do better to keep his powder dry until 2018. Then he can tell us whether Jokowi or not will be re-elected in the following year. To do otherwise is tempting fate.
We will know that Jokowi is becoming ‘more assertive’ in meeting regional challenges when he instructs Susi Pudjiastuti to start destroying Chinese fishing-boats caught fishing illegally in Indonesia’s EEZ around the Natunas. Both the Jakarta Post and Kompas have published articles in the last few days revealing that the majority of boats burned or bombed by Susi have been from other ASEAN states, notably Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. In a sense, therefore, the Jokowi government is waging a fishing war against other ASEAN members.
Visiting the Natunas in the wake of the latest Chinese illegal fishing incident doesn’t qualify as greater assertiveness if no follow-up comes. Given Jokowi’s evident admiration for China as a model shown when he first visited China shortly after his inauguration (a time of considerable foreign policy activism on his part, no matter what Dr Tomsa may write), I suspect there won’t be much follow-up at all. I hope I am wrong, because it is a key issue for Indonesia.
Jokowi is seen as ‘performing well enough to be the prime candidate’ for re-election in 2019. He can be in fact the only candidate for re-election, since he is the only president, unless Dr Tomsa thinks that Habibie or Megawati will make another bid for the presidency. At the same time, however, Jokowi will have to work hard on his economic policies in order to win a second election. So he is perhaps not performing well enough to be the prime candidate for re-election. Let’s put a dollar on either outcome: Jokowi wins or he doesn’t win.
This is one of the most slapdash posts about Jokowi that have appeared on this website. Jokowi is a hard man to understand. I have still not seen a good analysis from an Indonesian source of this puzzling politician. We need much greater depth and attention to detail in any posts aimed at explaining him or his current status in the Indonesian political system.
It’s quite simple, actually, vichai n: people all over the world will vote with their stomachs. It is quite obvious that so far the majority of voters have fared better under Thaksin and pro-Thaksin governments than under his electable or unelected opponents. So it appears, that regardless of corruption allegations (as if corruption is not endemic under his opponents either) that these governments must have done something right, and his opponents have failed.
As to civil war – i think you got things a bit confused. It was the Yellow Alliance that protested on overthrowing elected and therefore legitimate governments. The Red Shirts in 2006/2007 protested against a unelected coup government, and in 2009 and 2010 against a government with parliamentary mandate (achieved through not exactly democratic means) but no popular mandate, and therefore with certain legitimacy problems. Furthermore, while naturally the UDD made grave mistakes that partly led to the catastrophe in 2010, the demands in 2010 were entirely within the democratic spectrum. The demands by the PDRC in 2013/2014 had no base on any democracy i am familiar with, and their extremely disruptive and violent methods had neither.
While it is entirely legitimate and democratic to oppose Thaksin and his governments, logic would dictate that his opposition should try to find and use democratic means to form a government (such as have a somewhat competent campaign, for a change, and run then the country to the satisfaction of the majority of people, which they quite obviously did not), and not team up with the military to topple elected governments. This is just continuing the mess – people elect a government, a pissed off minority can’t accept it and together with support of entirely undemocratic ultra-conservative elites overthrows that elected government, and in turn is too incompetent to run their government to the satisfaction of the majority, who then again elect the government they are content with.
is not the military and the royal house the most corrupt part of it in Thailand?
what´s about:
– GT200,
– the airship,
– an aircraft carrier without planes,
– tanks without motors,
– Swedish warplanes twice as expensive as the normal price,
– drug trafficking of the military,
– human trafficking of the military,
– what do you think who benefits from the overpriced railway projects?
– who earns in expanding from Utapao to civilian airport?
– and now also 3 chinese submarines…….
how much money gets the royal household every year in the butt pushed – for no consideration? Why the royal family and the CPB paid no taxes?
mobster
why the 1997 constitution and even the 2007 constitution (a constitution written by the military) say that a coup d’etat is punishable by the death penalty – Why are the culprits not yet convicted but further suppress the people?
Your system is rotting and wicked
– but you’ll certainly in 100 years still hunting the ghost of Thaksin
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Red and Yellow in Germany
That is how personal impression can betray bias when not backed up with data. Or you are attempting to be facetious in a rather tasteless way.
As to torture victims, here one story by Prachatai: https://www.prachatai.com/english/node/3845 . In addition there were two incidents of altogether 6 Special Branch officers who have been tortured by PDRC guards. Several of these officers i know personally, and i am in possession of the internal report of one of the incidents which was leaked to me. Here one more link: https://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/ordered-killed/
I would also suggest to carefully read what i stated. I said almost half of the killed were killed by PDRC armed militants, not half or more. Out of memory i may list a few incidents: during the Ramkhamhaeng clashes 3 Red Shirts were killed by PDRC protesters (1 PDRC fighter was killed by Red Shirts). During the Thai Japan stadium clash 1 police officer was killed by PDRC fighters. Several people were killed and their bodies dumped, one such dump was even captured by a CTV camera where the body was thrown into the river, another was dumped at Prachachoen, dressed in a PDRC shirt, but later turned out to be a Red Shirt ( http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2014/03/13/1394711938/ ). 2 Police officers were killed by a PDRC sniper during the clash at Pan Fa/Democracy Monument. Lets not forget the Laksi incident, during which several people were shot and injured by the Popcorn shooters, one victim died 6 months later as a result of his injuries. And that is just from my memory, without even going into my files.
There were several armed assaults against several red Shirt community Radio stations, such as a Radio station in Mae Sod ( http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/redshirt-community-radio-station-heavy-arm-attack/ ).
So, please…
Red and Yellow in Germany
N-Nostitz: It is my impression that the Red/Black Shirts had a total monopoly of M79 grenade launcher violent attacks, indiscriminatelyr killing children and women and civilians, during the 2010 very violent Red Shirts protests led by UDD’s Jatuporn/Nattawut and the late Gen. Khattiya. The Red/Black Shirts armory also included high velocity assault rifles, pistols and home-made sharpened spears, among other things. Their killings were punctuated by widespread arson that gutted a number of Bangkok buildings including The World Trade Center/Central Shopping malls at Rajaprasong (my niece’ shop among them).
N-Nostitz must possess deadly statistics of the number of dead/maimed attributable to the PDRC, Red/Black Shirts and the military. N-Nostitz cited as fact that about half or more of the political mayhems could be blamed to the yellow shirts. I would appreciate N-Nostotz sharing his statistics accordingly. Personally I had not kept count. But from where I stood as a very scared civilian/bystander during the M79 grenade attacks, shootings etc; the lethally armed Red/Black Shirts were carrying out most of near one-sided attacks and the victims had been also been near one-sidedly the non-Red Shirts camp.
The only torture claim during the protests period I could recall was the dubious story of one garbage man who made that claim at a Gotee protest rally dutifully reported by N-Nostitz, the Red Shirt saga chronicler with an uncanny photographic memory.
Red and Yellow in Germany
Chris: Suharto was not only the most corrupt, he was also the 20th century’s greatest butcher. Despite the butchery and the billions Suharto and his family looted, Suharto never stood trial for any of his crimes. He never paid back a penny of the billions his family stole. He remained revered, courted by his country’s politicians and international businessmen up to his resignation and his death, and thereafter.
Corruption was/is indeed cool in Indonesia during Suharto’s rule and after. And corruption paid handsomely too, thank you, must have been Suharto’s unwritten epitaph!
http://listverse.com/2014/09/16/10-terrifying-tales-about-historys-most-corrupt-leader/
I would not be surprised if Suharto and Marcos were the inspirational models-looked Thaksin looked up to.
Red and Yellow in Germany
Vichai N, again more polemics and stereotypes that are just not exactly correct…
No, many members of the Thai intelligentsia have been in strong opposition of the PDRC and their aims. May i just mention groups like Nitirat and many other scholars?
And no, Red Shirt armed militants have not fired indiscriminately M79 grenades. Some may have fired M79 grenades, but if that would have been indiscriminate we would have seen a far higher number of dead. You also seem to swipe the fact under the table that almost half of the dead of 2013/2014 have been killed by armed militants of the PDRC. Another gruesome fact is that under the PDRC it became fashion to torture people in often horrific ways. Some of them were friends of mine, such as several Special Branch officers. I may have shared the same fate if i would not have escaped the abduction attempt by Buddha Issara’s look nong at the constitution court.
As to the “middle class”, sorry, but the middle classes are well represented in the Red Shirts as well. The PDRC was, especially in the later stages, not driven by the middle class, who remained at home when things turned a bit violent (especially after the Laksi incident where armed PDRC militants appeared in the open for the first time), but by southern gangsters, to the most part.
Please do not distort history so it serves your opinions.
Vietnamese fishermen versus China
Thank you so much for raising world consciousness about this ongoing plight of the Vietnamese fishermen, their families and communities, based on your well researched and concrete evidence. I do hope some worldwide grassroots collective efforts will take place to assist and empower these poor fishermen to deal with Chinese aggressive practices as demonstrated.
Red and Yellow in Germany
Indonesia’s Mohamed Suharto has received a dubious honor from Transparency International, which named the former Indonesian president the most corrupt world leader of the past 20 years. With his family’s takings estimated at between $15 billion and $35 billion, Suharto topped such notorious kleptocrats as Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines ($5 billion to $10 billion) and Nigeria’s Sani Abacha ($2 billion to $5 billion).
Keeping friends close, Thailand closer
Had it not been for the cross border trade and smuggling that supported the black economy during Ne Win’s reign, and the later economic migration as well as refugees from the civil war to Thailand, Burmese society and economy would not have functioned.
The hit film Narasuen helped change Thai attitudes towards their neighbours to some extent followed by the appeal and first hand experience of tourism. It’s only a start however. There’s still a great deal to strive for in improving both elite and communal relations between the neighbours, not least the important issues of the ruthless exploitation of migrant workers, human trafficking and slavery.
Christianity in Cambodia
I was interested to see your figure of 6% growth. May I ask how you calculated it as there are such varying figures for the number of Christians in Cambodia now, and historically.
Keeping friends close, Thailand closer
Present evidence show a path Thailand and Myanmar is advancing towards an inevitable, closely integration in every aspects.
Throw in Cambodia and Lao the the Taung gu dynasty within ASEAN is not that farfetched.
Secession in a democratic system?
Does Sharia even recognize the Brits as other than ‘Infidels’ like every none believers?
Again ‘Islamophobia’ is the word invented by PC to placate the intolerant Sharia follower.
Does this shoe fit you?
Red and Yellow in Germany
VichaiN – re. Indonesia’s Suharto, you are deranged. Suharto – Bapak Pembangunan, Father of Development – undoubtedly laid the basis for Indonesia’s current relative prosperity.
Online media and repressive regimes
Professor Jory – and many others – will no doubt be interested in the book Disruptive Power, the Crisis of the State in the Digital Age, by Oxford Trudeau Scholar, Taylor Owen, founder of opencanada.org.
What’s next for Jokowi’s Indonesia?
It’s not that difficult. Jokowi is a small-town kampung Javanese in a very big city. I remain convinced that however much he has failed as a technocrat, Jokowi is an honest man, with kampong principles, in a cynical and narcissistic Capitol where such values are trampled. Agree with him or not, and I have and have not, how much has Jokowi pocketed since he was Mayor of Solo and then Governor of Jakarta ? That ALONE is a new paradigm for Indonesia. He wants to be everyone’s grandfather, but he is a man of principle, he is not weak, he just may not be presidential material, and if that his worst fault, count me as a supporter of his.
Red and Yellow in Germany
You made the right point , Bernd, and let me complete it with a short sentence : the Monarchy -and paranoid Royalism – has always been and remains to this day the worst enemy of democracy in Thailand
Red and Yellow in Germany
it’s amazing – your hate against Thaksin for years but otherwise are quite eyed –
The fact is that Thaksin was convicted only 1 time – and in a very dubious judgment.
although you hunts Thaksin since now more like 10 years and tried to take legal action against him, this is a little very thin…
have you ever thought why democratic countries have no military rulers?
– Why thailand “democratic” lists but democracy is always prevented?
– why you will vote on 07.August on the then 20. constitution? (Which until today will be the most undemocratic)
– are politicians so corrupt?
– why ruled the military for so many decades in Thailand if Thailand is a democracy?
– why never was a coup maker to court – but the most of them had become Privy Council?
– who is responsible for the thammasat massacre? Communists? – or because the king brought back Thanom K. from exile and king and queen had been the first who had visited him in Wat Bovorn? then the students took to the streets – that’s why the massacre was organized …..
Online media and repressive regimes
this topic is of course of broad interest… even topically right now in Australia where we have an oppressive Liberal party that represents the wealthy 10% of Australians continuing its historical success in attracting around 50% of Australia’s voters
votes from the latest election are still being counted and it appears that social media has had significant affect both directly in promoting more rational democratic policies and also in facilitating the organising of the popular Getup pressure group and other political parties in recruiting volunteers handing out How to Vote flyers at polling places.
Red and Yellow in Germany
Indeed N-Nostitz perhaps the majority vote with their stomachs, all other considerations discarded. Greg Lopez made that same observation with respect to the predominantly Christian (thus religious rights or wrongs take a backseat to digestive priorities during elections) voters of Sarawak that guaranteed victory to another deeply corrupt leader, Malaysian PM Najib.
But the Thai intelligentsia knew better. And opportunistic Thai generals had the security of the kingdom to safeguard, or so they said. The near civil war was provoked, N-Nostitz, by those heavily armed Red Shirts with digestive disorders who aired their ire literally by launching rocket propelled grenades indiscriminately at Bangkok’s better fed middle-class who could no longer stomach Thaksin’s corruption and loudly demanded Thaksin be held judicially accountable.
Bernd: “It is cool to be corrupt” impunity culture had irrevocably reached its puke limits in Thailand with Thaksin’s corruptive rule. Thaksin even orchestrated that scandal where hundreds of millions of Baht were regularly skimmed from the National Lottery to be gifted to the Crown Prince for chrissakes! That National Lottery scandal was lese majeste to the Nth degree btw according to Andrew MacGreggor Marshall.
What’s next for Jokowi’s Indonesia?
Human rights advocates didn’t merely object to Jokowi’s executions of drug traffickers when they happened to be foreigners. They disapproved of the execution of Indonesians as well. It is a funny thing, but human rights advocates tend not to be racists.
Jokowi didn’t start ‘a populist war’ on drugs. He started the war himself in a speech at Gaja Mada University in December 2014, when he couldn’t have known that it would turn out to be popular. How genuine that support was is hard to estimate. It reminded me of the PKS’s campaign for the execution of Indonesians guilty of corruption until its own president was found guilty.
Jokowi visited Sumatra shortly after his inauguration on 20 October 2014 and made various promises about tackling the haze problem. Indonesia and its neighbours suffered more from haze in 2015 than it had for a long time. How can this author claim that Jokowi’s reaction was ‘more decisive’?
The Brexit vote, which came as a surprise to most well-informed observers, should be used as a warning against publishing early predictions of election results. Dr Tomsa would do better to keep his powder dry until 2018. Then he can tell us whether Jokowi or not will be re-elected in the following year. To do otherwise is tempting fate.
We will know that Jokowi is becoming ‘more assertive’ in meeting regional challenges when he instructs Susi Pudjiastuti to start destroying Chinese fishing-boats caught fishing illegally in Indonesia’s EEZ around the Natunas. Both the Jakarta Post and Kompas have published articles in the last few days revealing that the majority of boats burned or bombed by Susi have been from other ASEAN states, notably Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines. In a sense, therefore, the Jokowi government is waging a fishing war against other ASEAN members.
Visiting the Natunas in the wake of the latest Chinese illegal fishing incident doesn’t qualify as greater assertiveness if no follow-up comes. Given Jokowi’s evident admiration for China as a model shown when he first visited China shortly after his inauguration (a time of considerable foreign policy activism on his part, no matter what Dr Tomsa may write), I suspect there won’t be much follow-up at all. I hope I am wrong, because it is a key issue for Indonesia.
Jokowi is seen as ‘performing well enough to be the prime candidate’ for re-election in 2019. He can be in fact the only candidate for re-election, since he is the only president, unless Dr Tomsa thinks that Habibie or Megawati will make another bid for the presidency. At the same time, however, Jokowi will have to work hard on his economic policies in order to win a second election. So he is perhaps not performing well enough to be the prime candidate for re-election. Let’s put a dollar on either outcome: Jokowi wins or he doesn’t win.
This is one of the most slapdash posts about Jokowi that have appeared on this website. Jokowi is a hard man to understand. I have still not seen a good analysis from an Indonesian source of this puzzling politician. We need much greater depth and attention to detail in any posts aimed at explaining him or his current status in the Indonesian political system.
Red and Yellow in Germany
It’s quite simple, actually, vichai n: people all over the world will vote with their stomachs. It is quite obvious that so far the majority of voters have fared better under Thaksin and pro-Thaksin governments than under his electable or unelected opponents. So it appears, that regardless of corruption allegations (as if corruption is not endemic under his opponents either) that these governments must have done something right, and his opponents have failed.
As to civil war – i think you got things a bit confused. It was the Yellow Alliance that protested on overthrowing elected and therefore legitimate governments. The Red Shirts in 2006/2007 protested against a unelected coup government, and in 2009 and 2010 against a government with parliamentary mandate (achieved through not exactly democratic means) but no popular mandate, and therefore with certain legitimacy problems. Furthermore, while naturally the UDD made grave mistakes that partly led to the catastrophe in 2010, the demands in 2010 were entirely within the democratic spectrum. The demands by the PDRC in 2013/2014 had no base on any democracy i am familiar with, and their extremely disruptive and violent methods had neither.
While it is entirely legitimate and democratic to oppose Thaksin and his governments, logic would dictate that his opposition should try to find and use democratic means to form a government (such as have a somewhat competent campaign, for a change, and run then the country to the satisfaction of the majority of people, which they quite obviously did not), and not team up with the military to topple elected governments. This is just continuing the mess – people elect a government, a pissed off minority can’t accept it and together with support of entirely undemocratic ultra-conservative elites overthrows that elected government, and in turn is too incompetent to run their government to the satisfaction of the majority, who then again elect the government they are content with.
Red and Yellow in Germany
is not the military and the royal house the most corrupt part of it in Thailand?
what´s about:
– GT200,
– the airship,
– an aircraft carrier without planes,
– tanks without motors,
– Swedish warplanes twice as expensive as the normal price,
– drug trafficking of the military,
– human trafficking of the military,
– what do you think who benefits from the overpriced railway projects?
– who earns in expanding from Utapao to civilian airport?
– and now also 3 chinese submarines…….
how much money gets the royal household every year in the butt pushed – for no consideration? Why the royal family and the CPB paid no taxes?
mobster
why the 1997 constitution and even the 2007 constitution (a constitution written by the military) say that a coup d’etat is punishable by the death penalty – Why are the culprits not yet convicted but further suppress the people?
Your system is rotting and wicked
– but you’ll certainly in 100 years still hunting the ghost of Thaksin