Ah, yes, the much-vaunted, much-maligned, “anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand”.
There’s something to really look forward to.
No doubt journalists and quasi-journalists with their “sources” and their bar-stool coffee-shop access to “internal discourse” will soon be speaking in the voice of authority, of those who “know”, and telling us how the Thai people really feel, what the whispers are in the drawing rooms of the royalists, and when we can expect the next installment of the civil war that never comes.
There will be those who assure us that the Thai people value freedom above all but have been brainwashed and terrorized into voting yes by the all-powerful Oz, er, Prayuth.
1) emphasis on the number of years of residence in Thailand (can’t be an old Asia hand without sufficient time put in);
2)assurances of authenticity of residence via details of WHERE you have lived in Thailand and WHO you have chatted with: eg, in a village with 5 chickens, twelve dogs and a whole lot of the salt of the earth versus a Sukumvit condo and local bigfaces, national leaders and popular subversives versus taxi drivers and the lady who sells somtam at the mouth of the soi;
3) a 500 word brief arguing against your being labeled an “armchair” anything at all.
My anecdotal without supporting documentation: the people closest to me are embittered by the Yes result but accept that it was a genuine expression of how many many Thais think and feel.
Obviously the Sultanate of Patani should be part of Malaysia. However, the notion that Isaan, Lanna or any other Tai speaking Buddhist region will secede from Thailand is simply not credible. As for a revolutionary ‘Thai Spring’ it would require a very unlikely combination of events, military oppression alone is not enough.
When I showed them the pictures, my 20-something American sons told me that what he is wearing is an actual style that young men are wearing these days and not women’s clothing. The fact that so many of us old people thought at first he was wearing women’s clothing only emphasises the fact that truth is stranger than fiction and if this were fiction, you would have to be very skilled to make it up.
Adding to this, just seen on the BBC that the participation rate was 55%. (A gratuitous comment: about that for a US presidential election from the country that gives lessons to the world on democracy…)
Still, by the standards of authoritarian regimes (e.g. Communist Romania, or a junta-controlled Myanmar, 55% is (with the caveat that this is not a manipulated statistic) … is nevertheless, disappointing, from the NCOP’s perspective.
Gather they were looking at an 80% participation rate… However, could just be a clever tactic to modestly vaunt a significant public relations victory. Still, will tomorrows be as reassuring for the chaps in green?
While not necessarily sharing Chris Beale’s conclusion on legitimacy given to separatism he does underline two important factors we need to analyze in great detail: levels of participation and regional variations, especially between Greater Bangkok and the rest of the country. For the former, without reliable opinion polling however it would be difficult to interpret what abstaining means. In a censorious environment such polling may not have been possible. As a poor second best we will be left to rely on anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand.
Well official results are in from this highly fixed and controlled referendum. What a surprise !! The yes vote won. But MOST INTERESTING OF ALL IS THE REGIONAL BREAKDOWN : low turn-out, and high NO vote from Isaarn, and even more so from the overtly separatist Deep South stronghold. This referendum was effectively a vote by those regions on whether they remain part of Prayut’s “Thailand”. While the Shinawatra’s are this votes biggest losers, the vote shows both regions have voted to secede : Shinawatra influence is being out-flanked by far more radical elements – both Prayut on the Right, and regional secessionist on the Left. This referendum has given the latter a legitimacy boost.
Possibly one of the best comments I’ve ever read here. At last someone remembers the Prince is wearing his girlfriend’s top. The tattoos aren’t the story.
I totally agree with these critiques. I live in Jakarta with my husband and we are AFL fans, but not at the expense of weekend evening ABC NEWS. Also the 5-6 pm time slot for weekday news and the 7.30 Report is absurdly early. The repeated ads are going to drive me crazy (eg singing group ” we are the music” and scenes from Wonderland and Home and Away) and diminish the value of programs such as Q & A and Insight. I also wonder why
we are being subjected to 7 year old Food Safari repeats despite Australia’s dynamic food culture. My final gripe is it doesn’t appear that there will be any Olympic coverage by Australia Plus or other networks servicing Indonesia. Certainly Play School at about 1 am last night, when I thought there may be some Olympics news, didn’t satisfy me, nor I suspect any fretful children that might be awake at that time. It’s time for a better effort and contemporary representation of Australia.
I would probably describe Indonesia’s political reality as being more surreal than sophisticated. The president is without a doubt a role model for many socially upward and mobile Indonesians, I guess, which explains his popularity with the middles classes (it’s indeed difficult to classify their variegated conditions into one class). However, I must profess my surprise at the revelation that Ms Jacqui Baker has apparently undergone a sex change.
Sadly the bloodshed this time – unlike in previous coups – is likely to be widespread in the regions also, not only Bangkok. One can only pray violence does not happen. But I am very pessimistic.
Mafia boss of th south, AKA Suthep, did gather about 5000-10 000 people from the south in Lumpini park, aggressive and stinky people i can recall, and could overthrow a democratically elected gvt which had millions and millions of voters…the “yellow shirts” are indeed a replay of the “Brauhen Hemden” of Adolph Hitler and the NSDAP in the 30s germany…
Excuse me? Could you explain why please with a logical thinking process or do you believe thais are so special, in a way or another… to be able to have a democratic, even a republican system they can rely on?
Unfortunately, my english isn’t so good to express my detail thought regarding this matter. So, I just wanna say that Mr. Baker wrote with very weak argumentation. The writer seems don’t know about who Mr. Widodo really is, while majority middle class in Indonesia like me ensure that he is a very smart politician facing our multi complex social political situation and sophisticated animal politician group. Let c until next 2 years, Sir!
The Malaysian opposition should no longer shy away from telling Malays that UMNO’s corruption, racism, pretenses to religiosity, gift of dignity depriving Special Privileges seriously violate Islamic tenets, supporting UMNO is sinful and has consequences for the afterlife. Parti Amanah should lead all Muslim members in Pakatan Harapan in this charge. Similarly, Parti Islam’s promises of tickets to heaven without any well founded plan for bettering the present should be construed as nothing more than a cheap tactic by opportunists in religious garb. Its endorsement of UMNO’s sins also betrays its opportunism.
Pakatan Harapan also need to convince Malays that any government formed by PH would have a Malay core. That higher revenue of a clean government would be used to further develop the country, including provision of a strong social safety net which could negate the need for bumiputera special privileges (immoral as they are not earned) and restore their dignity and integrity to their faith.
I like this piece. Well informed and distinctively conceptualized. Perhaps it should be emphasized, however, that Jokowi is not really a politician i.e. a PDIP cadre from the outset. A successful Solo mayor who happened to be PDIP member (not the other way around) and catapulted to become a very popular Jakarta mayor. Such that the party’s Matriarch Megawati had no other option than to sacrifice herself as presidential hopeful. When he, a PDIP man but not part of the party establishment, won the presidency – thanks to Prabowo’s infamous reputation among the middle class – many observers called him anti-priyayi populist. What is relevant here is that having been more or less ‘liberated’ from Megawati and PDIP elite very recently, Jokowi now seems to be caught in between today’s biggest oligarchs: the Golkar establishment, Jusuf Kalla, and Luhut – the first being the new partners he had to accomodate, the second Megawati’s real representative in the cabinet (not her daughter, Puan, mind you) and the third his political strategist. That’s the tragic of a “kabupaten capitalist” (as Max Lane said)-cum-politico-buraucrat.
the large number of disenfranchised voters who neglect to participate in Sundays charade will play into the Junta’s hand . As will the overseas voters who are prohibited from participation .
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Thailand’s referendum roadblock
Ah, yes, the much-vaunted, much-maligned, “anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand”.
There’s something to really look forward to.
No doubt journalists and quasi-journalists with their “sources” and their bar-stool coffee-shop access to “internal discourse” will soon be speaking in the voice of authority, of those who “know”, and telling us how the Thai people really feel, what the whispers are in the drawing rooms of the royalists, and when we can expect the next installment of the civil war that never comes.
There will be those who assure us that the Thai people value freedom above all but have been brainwashed and terrorized into voting yes by the all-powerful Oz, er, Prayuth.
Given proper reprogramming and a constabulary trained at the (now renamed) School of the Americas, the freedom-loving Thais would become just like Americans and Brits and Spaniards and all the other democratically-empowered rational actors who are rockin’ in the Free World©.
Anecdotals, as always, must be supported by:
1) emphasis on the number of years of residence in Thailand (can’t be an old Asia hand without sufficient time put in);
2)assurances of authenticity of residence via details of WHERE you have lived in Thailand and WHO you have chatted with: eg, in a village with 5 chickens, twelve dogs and a whole lot of the salt of the earth versus a Sukumvit condo and local bigfaces, national leaders and popular subversives versus taxi drivers and the lady who sells somtam at the mouth of the soi;
3) a 500 word brief arguing against your being labeled an “armchair” anything at all.
My anecdotal without supporting documentation: the people closest to me are embittered by the Yes result but accept that it was a genuine expression of how many many Thais think and feel.
I share the sentiment.
Thailand’s referendum roadblock
Obviously the Sultanate of Patani should be part of Malaysia. However, the notion that Isaan, Lanna or any other Tai speaking Buddhist region will secede from Thailand is simply not credible. As for a revolutionary ‘Thai Spring’ it would require a very unlikely combination of events, military oppression alone is not enough.
The middle class president
Hi Pak Max,
OOT, I read your translation of Pramudya’s books. Great work! So good I thought I was reading it in Bahasa.
Royal ink
When I showed them the pictures, my 20-something American sons told me that what he is wearing is an actual style that young men are wearing these days and not women’s clothing. The fact that so many of us old people thought at first he was wearing women’s clothing only emphasises the fact that truth is stranger than fiction and if this were fiction, you would have to be very skilled to make it up.
Thailand’s referendum roadblock
Adding to this, just seen on the BBC that the participation rate was 55%. (A gratuitous comment: about that for a US presidential election from the country that gives lessons to the world on democracy…)
Still, by the standards of authoritarian regimes (e.g. Communist Romania, or a junta-controlled Myanmar, 55% is (with the caveat that this is not a manipulated statistic) … is nevertheless, disappointing, from the NCOP’s perspective.
Gather they were looking at an 80% participation rate… However, could just be a clever tactic to modestly vaunt a significant public relations victory. Still, will tomorrows be as reassuring for the chaps in green?
Thailand’s referendum roadblock
While not necessarily sharing Chris Beale’s conclusion on legitimacy given to separatism he does underline two important factors we need to analyze in great detail: levels of participation and regional variations, especially between Greater Bangkok and the rest of the country. For the former, without reliable opinion polling however it would be difficult to interpret what abstaining means. In a censorious environment such polling may not have been possible. As a poor second best we will be left to rely on anecdotal evidence from people within Thailand.
Thailand’s referendum roadblock
Well official results are in from this highly fixed and controlled referendum. What a surprise !! The yes vote won. But MOST INTERESTING OF ALL IS THE REGIONAL BREAKDOWN : low turn-out, and high NO vote from Isaarn, and even more so from the overtly separatist Deep South stronghold. This referendum was effectively a vote by those regions on whether they remain part of Prayut’s “Thailand”. While the Shinawatra’s are this votes biggest losers, the vote shows both regions have voted to secede : Shinawatra influence is being out-flanked by far more radical elements – both Prayut on the Right, and regional secessionist on the Left. This referendum has given the latter a legitimacy boost.
The middle class president
I think you will find that many middle class voters actually voted for Prabowo, so I’m not sure how infamous his reputation is to the middle class
Royal ink
Possibly one of the best comments I’ve ever read here. At last someone remembers the Prince is wearing his girlfriend’s top. The tattoos aren’t the story.
How Australia Plus became Australia minus
I totally agree with these critiques. I live in Jakarta with my husband and we are AFL fans, but not at the expense of weekend evening ABC NEWS. Also the 5-6 pm time slot for weekday news and the 7.30 Report is absurdly early. The repeated ads are going to drive me crazy (eg singing group ” we are the music” and scenes from Wonderland and Home and Away) and diminish the value of programs such as Q & A and Insight. I also wonder why
we are being subjected to 7 year old Food Safari repeats despite Australia’s dynamic food culture. My final gripe is it doesn’t appear that there will be any Olympic coverage by Australia Plus or other networks servicing Indonesia. Certainly Play School at about 1 am last night, when I thought there may be some Olympics news, didn’t satisfy me, nor I suspect any fretful children that might be awake at that time. It’s time for a better effort and contemporary representation of Australia.
The middle class president
I would probably describe Indonesia’s political reality as being more surreal than sophisticated. The president is without a doubt a role model for many socially upward and mobile Indonesians, I guess, which explains his popularity with the middles classes (it’s indeed difficult to classify their variegated conditions into one class). However, I must profess my surprise at the revelation that Ms Jacqui Baker has apparently undergone a sex change.
Thailand’s containment constitution
John G – “chip on the shoulder nastiness of the junta’s leading general” ? More like ambition to become Thailand’s next King, in all but name.
Dim prospects for Thailand’s democracy
Sadly the bloodshed this time – unlike in previous coups – is likely to be widespread in the regions also, not only Bangkok. One can only pray violence does not happen. But I am very pessimistic.
Dim prospects for Thailand’s democracy
Mafia boss of th south, AKA Suthep, did gather about 5000-10 000 people from the south in Lumpini park, aggressive and stinky people i can recall, and could overthrow a democratically elected gvt which had millions and millions of voters…the “yellow shirts” are indeed a replay of the “Brauhen Hemden” of Adolph Hitler and the NSDAP in the 30s germany…
Dim prospects for Thailand’s democracy
Excuse me? Could you explain why please with a logical thinking process or do you believe thais are so special, in a way or another… to be able to have a democratic, even a republican system they can rely on?
The middle class president
Unfortunately, my english isn’t so good to express my detail thought regarding this matter. So, I just wanna say that Mr. Baker wrote with very weak argumentation. The writer seems don’t know about who Mr. Widodo really is, while majority middle class in Indonesia like me ensure that he is a very smart politician facing our multi complex social political situation and sophisticated animal politician group. Let c until next 2 years, Sir!
Lamenting 1MDB
The Malaysian opposition should no longer shy away from telling Malays that UMNO’s corruption, racism, pretenses to religiosity, gift of dignity depriving Special Privileges seriously violate Islamic tenets, supporting UMNO is sinful and has consequences for the afterlife. Parti Amanah should lead all Muslim members in Pakatan Harapan in this charge. Similarly, Parti Islam’s promises of tickets to heaven without any well founded plan for bettering the present should be construed as nothing more than a cheap tactic by opportunists in religious garb. Its endorsement of UMNO’s sins also betrays its opportunism.
Pakatan Harapan also need to convince Malays that any government formed by PH would have a Malay core. That higher revenue of a clean government would be used to further develop the country, including provision of a strong social safety net which could negate the need for bumiputera special privileges (immoral as they are not earned) and restore their dignity and integrity to their faith.
The middle class president
I like this piece. Well informed and distinctively conceptualized. Perhaps it should be emphasized, however, that Jokowi is not really a politician i.e. a PDIP cadre from the outset. A successful Solo mayor who happened to be PDIP member (not the other way around) and catapulted to become a very popular Jakarta mayor. Such that the party’s Matriarch Megawati had no other option than to sacrifice herself as presidential hopeful. When he, a PDIP man but not part of the party establishment, won the presidency – thanks to Prabowo’s infamous reputation among the middle class – many observers called him anti-priyayi populist. What is relevant here is that having been more or less ‘liberated’ from Megawati and PDIP elite very recently, Jokowi now seems to be caught in between today’s biggest oligarchs: the Golkar establishment, Jusuf Kalla, and Luhut – the first being the new partners he had to accomodate, the second Megawati’s real representative in the cabinet (not her daughter, Puan, mind you) and the third his political strategist. That’s the tragic of a “kabupaten capitalist” (as Max Lane said)-cum-politico-buraucrat.
Thailand’s referendum roadblock
As I stated elsewhere , there will be further blood on Bangkok streets before Thailand tastes the fruits of Democracy
A vicious cycle of coups and constitutions
the large number of disenfranchised voters who neglect to participate in Sundays charade will play into the Junta’s hand . As will the overseas voters who are prohibited from participation .