Comments

The smoke had barely cleared before New York Times and the Guardian ran pieces where experts ruled out southern militant groups as potential perpetrators based on extremely weak analysis. I wrote the text to criticize their arguments and put the southern separatists back on the list of plausible suspects. I take it from your comments that you agree with this, but mainly question if we can be sure that the separatists was behind the previous attacks mentioned in the text.

I am surprised that you have so strong doubts about the Samui and Lee Garden bombings – this is something that you usually only hear from central government spokespeople. The perpetrators behind these and other attacks mentioned in the text has been identified as discussed in depth in Rungrawee’s New Mandala text and the linked sources in my text. This is widely accepted among both authorities and analysts in the south. One exception is the events at the time of the referendum, where the groups has not been identified. But the nature of the bombs and the anti-government messages clearly point in the direction of the insurgents.

We have seen that the southern separatists have capacity to strike outside of the border provinces with a fairly short planning. Either through operatives travelling to other parts of the country, such as the Ramkhamheang bombing, or by activating cells and support networks that they maintain in the upper south and Bangkok which was the case in the Samui bombing. If they were behind this, you accurately point out that it would be a massive escalation compared to what they have done in the past.

All initial coverage of the referendum and the 11-12 August bombs overlooked the large number of bomb attacks in the border provinces the first ten days of August. This surely plays into the hand of the Thai authorities and I hope that later analysis will look at the full picture of events in August and all southern provinces.

Until some hard evidence emerges, it seems too early to be confident about naming “two suspects,” or any specific number for that matter. A bombing event isn’t evidence. Evidence comes from the facts of these
bombing events. Has this article provided such evidence from these
actual bombing events?

The damage and loss of life was tragic and unnecessary. Speculation based on possible motive alone, however, does its own type of damage as well. I’m not ready to join in pointing fingers without some serious evidence from the actual bombings to support the pointing. It may come soon, but it didn’t exist when this piece was published by NM or when a dozen other experts eagerly named the “likely” culprits only hours after the blasts.

Premature speculation in the Erawan bombing sullied numerous groups as Thai and foreign experts quickly named as possible or “likely” culprits. In that case, after all of the “likely domestic groups” had been paraded though the mud as possible murderers, evidence emerged that pointed to
foreign Uyghur terrorists from Xinjiang China who attacked people at a
a sacred Thai shrine in retaliation for Thailand’s forcibly repatriating Uyghur refugees. The repatriated were asylum seekers, mind you, who sought political refuge in once free Thailand only to be thrown back into the hands of the Chinese government by the Thai junta — an illegal act known as refoulment under international law. How’s that for a “possible motive” that overly confident pundits missed as they informed the world about the “likely” culprits hours after the blast. Hard evidence revealed the motive in that case. Thus, all the expert speculation in the immediate aftermath of the Erawan bombing naming Red Shirts, Thaksin, Southern Muslims, curly-haired students, and others continues to hang in the clouds with no hard evidence for support. A possible motive is not evidence.

Premature allegations can produce unfair political damage toward
innocent groups. They can further justify government and public
oppression of such out-of-power groups by suggesting they are capable and eager for violence and terror. If we really “don’t know” then we don’t know.

Although, there is one thing we do know right now. That any group highlighted in this piece as a “likely” culprit later found innocent has been unfairly accused of being desirous to commit a horrific act of public violence aimed at innocent bystanders. That’s not fair in the absence of hard evidence, is it?

Social engineering combined some political reforms for fast development may hold the key to peace.

I find that pretty persuasive. This last spate of bombs looks like things that have occurred in the past in Haadyai, Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat — single day clusters of ten or more small explosions at multiple locations. The insurgents certainly have reason to want to offer the queen this sort of birthday present. And they have reason to poke Prayuth in the eye just as he sees himself as having achieved a political victory. If one accepts that they have sometimes worked outside of the south and that this somewhat greater geographic spread is within their competence, then, yes, that seems like a guess that fits the circumstances pretty well.

Pavin should know well that with criminal court cases and in some cases judgements already determined against most Pheu Thai members, Thaksin, and Yingluck, it is impossible for them to ever come back again post election period. Tired anti-Thaskinites now need to move on, if the past is not clear enough for them by now to have their eyes open, towards creating conditions for electoral democracy.

That’s typical inhuman moves that put money power before human dignity and lives. It is sad to see us being manipulated by greed at the expanse of our melanesian brotherhood. Please be christian as we claim to be and dont fall to the devil. Make a moral conscience choice

So far not many facts exist, except that the attacks have been very well coordinated, what can only be done by a group that has sufficient experience. Neither mafia nor redshirts etc. would have such a professional experience. Secondly, the bombs were obviusly not aimed at creating too many casualties. Thus, the national and international response can remain limited and will fade away rather soon. It appears to be more of a demonstrative act within the national political theatre. This is quite different from the Erawan bomb! So far, it is not clear, who might gain from it. One can only hope that Prayud does not copy Erdogan!

Not so fast. This is a thought provoking article but it is misleading to suggest that the latest attacks are basically nothing new or out of the ordinary. In fact, if southern insurgents were behind the attacks, this would mark a significant escalation and change of tactics and strategy.

The article also assumes that we know who was behind all past bombings and various related activity — and that it was all the southern insurgents. It assumes we know for sure that the Thai-language anti-referendum graffiti in the three southern provinces was the work of insurgents. But the question of who produced the graffiti has not been conclusively answered. I think there are interesting parallels with the banners in the same provinces denouncing Sirikit on her birthday in 2009, mentioned in leaked US cable 09BANGKOK2149. These banners were almost certainly not produced by insurgents.

Moreover, if the bombers wanted to send a message about the referendum, why did they wait until after the vote to launch their attacks? Planning for these attacks would have had to begin way before the result was known in the evening of August 7. So it is improbable that these attacks were a direct response to the result, and if they were intended as a more general gesture of rejection of the referendum, why did the bombers not strike during the run-up to the vote?

It is also rather misleading to claim it’s a myth that insurgents don’t target tourists. We all know that there are frequent incidents in the border sex and smuggling towns Sungai Kolok, Sadao and Betong, but as many analysts have pointed out, much of this violence is likely to be criminal rather than political/religious, arising from turf wars among rival mafia groups and military gangs. There is no evidence that Malaysian sex tourists have been specifically targeted, and in any case they are a very niche group among the tourists who visit Thailand.

The Samui bombing is an unsolved case and some southern insurgent involvement is likely. But as far as I am aware there is no proof that this was intended as an attack on the tourist industry. It’s widely known that some southern insurgents are available for hire to criminal and mafia groups. There have been numerous instances of business disputes in the Deep South being solved with violence aided by insurgents. There is no compelling evidence that the attacks on the Lee Garden Hotel and the Koh Samui mall are different.

Contrary to the impression created by Anders Egvall, a coordinated series of attacks on multiple targets outside the Deep South, specifically intended to cause significant damage to the national economy and tourist industry, would be an extremely significant, even game-changing, new development. That doesn’t mean this is not what has happened. But a “this is nothing new” argument is inaccurate and does not help us establish who was responsible for the attacks.

There is one clear precedent for the Mothers’ Day attacks — the 2006/7 New Year bombings in Bangkok. It was never conclusively established who was behind these bombings, and indeed it may have been a coalition of various interests.

The bombing of the Erawan Shrine on August 17 last year also has some parallels, and it would be worth re-examining whether this really was done by angry Uighurs acting alone without help from other groups inside Thailand.

The analysts have clearly suspecting Uighurs and yes these attacks have been targeted at Chinese people, they are the ones who have been injured in it. earlier Thailand deported 100 Uighurs to China despite of the reports about human rights violation against Uighurs. This is a fight between Uighurs and china but Thailand is suffering!

Have you ever think, why there are muslim behind every terrorist attack. Here Two Uighur muslims are arrested and several are questioning. They blast like last year and also in Indonasia. Why Uighurs are doing this in Asia? These Uighurs are getting support from south Thailand’s muslim.