Comments

  1. The Alamo says:

    John Francis Lee – apologies, i meant that any longterm solution is unimaginable to the elite because they just can’t seem to grasp what is going on.

    I’m not saying it can’t come from other sources – just not the elite.

    They’ve had 78years of trying to establish democracy in Thailand and have completely failed.

  2. stop the massacre says:

    I don’t think Isan at this time wants to join Laos, neither is it in Laotian interests for Isan to join Laos.

    But what is notable is that after more than two hundred years, the people in the Northeast have retained a cultural identity that is Lao not Siamese/Central Thai. The recent Cannes winner Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives highlights the Lao identity of Isan. The dialogue and narration of the movie is in the Lao language–and yes it must really irk Bangkok that of all Thai movies ever made, the one in Lao should win the Palme d’Or.

    Assimilation into Central Thai/Siamese culture is not going to happen anytime soon. And as long as culturally that region is distinct, those in Bangkok will always consider it as n0t-really-Thai and as such subtle and not-so-subtle measures will continue to keep that region out of the spheres of power.

    The Lao whether in Isan or Laos do recognize a common Thai/Tai identity and are not opposed to it as long as the relationship is on an equal footing. Thailand does not have to fall apart, but it may fall apart if it imposes an apartheid regime and upholds minority rule.

    Under a properly-designed system of government, with checks and balances and power spread out and distributed thinly, Bangkok has nothing to fear from a government dominated by Northeasterners. Even if they will never be Siamese, they are happy to be Thai.

  3. michael says:

    Portman #32: ‘Stevenson’ with a ‘v’, not ‘Stephenson’ with a ‘ph’, who is the subject of his book ,’A Man Called Intrepid.’ I’ve seen reviews of this book which assert that it’s largely fiction, even down to the allegation that Sir William Stephenson was actually never called ‘Intrepid’ until Stevenson’s book was published. Personally, my suspicions about ‘The Revolutionary King’ were aroused very early, due to his irritating and overly-familiar habit of referring to the principal characters by their nicknames, as well as the map, and his weird theory re. the Japanese spymaster-assassin. All a bit ‘bumper boys-own adventure’.

  4. michael says:

    SimpleSimon #211: I’d already read that article, & have no argument with most of it. However, as in the case of Nick’s account, I continue to keep an open mind about other ‘Men in Black’, for the reasons I’ve stated. Please understand, I do not deny the presence of Redshirt-aligned ‘Men in Black’. I just don’t think that is necessarily the whole story. I’ve seen too many other references which cause me to believe that it may not be that simple.

    Further, the PM’s denial that the pro-govt forces took out Seh Daeng means very little, when it is very clear he has blatantly lied about so much else (The attacks on the temple are a prime example. To believe Abhisit is to caste non-aligned medics and foreign journalists, eyewitnesses, as liars.).

    I am skeptical about these things – which means I am open to other explanations, not that I have made up my mind.

  5. Tarrin says:

    Daniel Wolf – 104

    Looking at the situation in Thailand, we are seeing many attempt by the establishment to down play voting by simple reasons such as vote buying or that poor people are too stupid and uneducated to make a rational situation. We see that the New Political Party came up with 30% elected 70% selected voting idea, which indicated further the establishment’s intention to downplay democracy. The reason they are downplaying democracy was because the establishment has no way to win election and get executive power. However, the establishment has control over the military, the jurisdiction and legislation branches, they lack only the ability to win election to have a complete control of the country. The establishment have used all the tools in their disposal to get rid of the political party that representing the poor, we all see the military and the jurisdiction branch in action to get rid of the establishment’s political opponent. The reason they want to do this is of cause, to limit the wealth distribution to those that make up of the few elite families. This is the battle of the “new” and “old” money.

  6. Christoffer Larsson says:

    @Ozorro

    If the Democrats would have resigned already after 1 week into the UDD’s demonstration, there would not have been any violence. And if PAD would have been attacked at the Suvarnabhumi, there surely would have been.

    If you have forgotten, here is a reminder:
    “The PAD was defiant. PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila announced that the PAD would fight off police. “If the government wants to clear the protesters, let it try. The PAD will protect all locations because we are using our rights to demonstrate peacefully without causing damages to state properties or rioting,” Suriyasai said.[118] Suriyasai also threatened to use human shields if police attempted to disperse the PAD.[119] Human shields of 300-400 women were assigned to physically surround each per PAD leader.[120] Foreign journalists reported that the PAD was paying people to join them at the airport, with extra payment being given to parents bringing babies and children.[121]”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Alliance_for_Democracy#Attempts_to_evict_the_PAD

  7. Daniel Wolf says:

    -Chris

    I’m thinking along the same lines as The Frog.

    Do you have any evidence to support your statement that people in Issan want to join Laos? This conjecture seems rather far-fetched to me.

  8. Ricky Ward says:

    LD castigates the Red Shirt leaders for actions which:
    “brought forth ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE violence from the state”
    This assertion does not appear to fit the facts as they unfolded, let alone justify the state violence.

    I say this because of the fact that the Red Shirt leaders suddenly capitulated to the surprise of their flock.
    Their leader interviewed on TV kept saying the Reds meagre weaponry was clearly no match for the army.
    It appears their militant arm was using attacks against the army – which killed no soldiers – simply to deter an assault and possibly play for time while mediation efforts proceeded – and when the assault came the militants failed to detonate the bombs supposedly laid to cause army casualties. Were not the Reds trying to avoid violence and casualties.

  9. Johpa Deumlaokeng says:

    I continue to be a bit bemused by the number of observers who feel that one of the primary issues in Thailand underlying the current troubles is a sense of increased economic disparity:

    Still, those higher levels of connectivity have raised awareness of the Bangkok-centric and chronically imbalanced allocation of wealth and access.

    Having just spent the past several weeks living in rural northern Thailand, in an unrepentant district of Thaksin support, I heard lots of complaints, but economic disparity is not one of the complaints. Just like their lower economic class brethren here in the US, the rural people still admire wealth and dream of attaining the lifestyles of the rich and famous. Economic disparity is not what bothered the people I was sharing bottles of Mae Khong with around the local village watering holes. What pissed them off was that they were told that Thailand was a democracy, they voted for the candidate that was willing to throw them some bones and who used the media to create an image that appealed to a rural voter, and then that elected man, Thaksin, was unceremoniously tossed out by the old guard. Their elected official to whom they invested their political desires was kicked out and that is what really upsets them.

    I hear nothing about economic disparity from my Thai pals, only from western observers or western influenced Thais. I hear no rumblings regarding class as the local “Red” supporters include not only lower class Thais but also middle class Thais of many persuasions. (Not that there are no issues of class within Thai politics, but they are hopelessly intertwined with ethnicity in defining who is a Thai.) And having had a ringside seat in the rural north for the past 30 years, if anything income disparity has decreased with the rise of a lower middle class segment of the rural population that existed only scantily when I first arrived in Thailand back in 1981.

    As an outside observer, outside of academia as well, without an ideological axe to grind, I do find it odd that the rural folks up north and over in Isaan would back someone like Thaksin who clearly does not represent the interests of the rural population. My own consternation regarding the rural support of Thaksin echoes the thoughts of American journalist Thomas Frank in his book “What’s the Matter with Kansas” which ponders a similar conundrum as to why poor rural people in the US back the political party, the Republican Party, that is least concerned about representing their interests. But Thaksin, like George Bush, created an image that appealed to this segment of the electorate and won the vote. Abhisit, who if anything is perceived as being a bit effete, and despite implementing some decent “populist” programs similar to those of Thaksin, has not been able to craft the same sort of popular image to win the hearts and minds of Thaksin’s supporters.

    So they are mad, and pissed off, and don’t really care about economic equality, they just want their vote back and they don’t want to here from the likes of “Yellow Shirt” leader Sondhi that their vote should count for less than an urban Bangkok vote.

  10. doyle2499 says:

    @LD (24)

    I don’t think anybody here would argue that there were armed redshirts, its obvious this was the case. The threat they pose is greatly overstated, Ahbisit told us 500 armed dangerous terrorist were waiting to do battle a threat to the nation and monarchy. Looking at the casualties this level of threat is not supported, 8 dead soldiers across the two months of protest. Five of these soldiers died on the 10th April, I believe they were all victims of the initial grenade attack which started the violence. Some have suggested this attack was part of an internal army feud or the grenade could have come from Sah Deangs ronin. Of the other 3 deaths, Priv Nongrit sala killed by freindly fire on 28th April, Sgt. Phongchalit Thipayanontakan killed on 17th May also friendly fire, Sgt. Anusit Chansaento on 20th May whom I think was shot with his own weapon as seen in video from TNN.

    So what we have is one very deadly grenade attack, which may or may not have come from Sah Deang, then one soldier shot with his own weapon,and also a grenade attack which hit two soldiers and a Canadian journalist on the 19th may. So what were these 500 terrorists who were armed with war weapons doing for two months, they didn’t even manage to shoot one soldier. Compare this to the PAD who in one day, 7/10/08, shot 4 police officers and run over another 3 with a pick up.

    For these actions the PAD were given positions in the cabinet, while redshirts are being rounded up and sent to jail without having been charged with anything.

    The reds protest would have been far more successful if it had remained completely non violent, especially in the international propaganda war. The cynical would say if they had been unarmed it would just have made it easier for the army to remove them.

    “betrayed by leaders and their violent henchmen who brought forth ENTIRELY PREDICTABLE violence from the state in a cynical effort to promote the narrow political goals of those leaders.”

    Nothing any leader or reshirt did could ever justify the response from the army. Look at how the authoroties reacted to PAD violence in 2008 they backed off and never confronted them again because they knew the lose of life would be to great, and that led to the fall of the Somchai goverment, but who cares because further loss of life was prevented. Ahibisit was prepared to sacrifice as many lives as it took to ensure the survival of his government. He had certainly changed his views on state sponsored violence since he made this statement in 2008, regarding the death of two PAD protesters.

    “Regarding the entire incident, the prime minister cannot reject being responsible for not performing his duties, or for intending that this incident would occur. But what is worse is to blame the officials, that is, to slander the people. I could not think or dream that we would have a state that does harm to the people, even including deaths and severe injuries, and still have a state that even shifts responsibility to the people. This behavior is unacceptable.”

    ” I have heard the government asking this or that person whether they were Thai or not. But regarding your [Somchai Wongsawat] behavior, are you a Thai or not? Are you human or not? Today, politically, your legitimacy is gone already. We demand that the prime minister shows responsibility.? Abhisit referred to resignation or the dissolution of parliament. If Somchai remained idle, this would do harm to the country and to the political system.”

    “There is no democratic political system in this world in which the people are harmed by the state, but the government that came from the people does not show responsibility. ? Even if the PAD had done something wrong, the government had no right to do harm to the people.”

    When the reporters asked Abhisit at that time how come that there could be such a big crisis, while the PM could still remain in office, Abhisit briefly but clearly answered:

    “I cannot answer this. I have never been such a person. The normal human beings that I know are not of this kind.”

    Ahbisit in 2008 “could not think or dream that we would have a state that does harm to the people” 2 years is a long time in politics but Ahbisit has made a huge conversion from this position. Or could it be the Ahbisit “could not think or dream that we would have a state that does harm to the people” in yellow, but if their wearing red then its open season.

  11. farang says:

    What’s up with the Thai courts? They are very quick to issue terrorist warrants – but won’t rule on the $ 8 million illegal campaign contribution to the ruling party? Mmh.

    The double standards, the simplicifations and generalisations are shocking and remind me of “Animal Farm” rhetorics. For example, any excuse NOT to hold elections and the crucial timi8ng to avoid elections in November…

    Widespread censorship and a hyper active Thought Police – is this the “answer” to a very deep crisis?

    Will there ever be a legal review of what went down when the airports were blocked? How come PAD leaders are not facing charges? It has been years and it’s well known that they used rent-a-mob people by handing out yellow shirts and a daily payment.

    Closing, I wonder if the king ever pardoned a Thai lese majeste prisoner? Or do only Western offenders get pardoned?

  12. Jim Taylor says:

    So more on central world: it was formerly a palace built there owned by son #72 of King V (Chulalongkorn) – and some say has a spell on it! OK so yes, it is clear now, the amaat owners (central group of companies/CPN) and their govt friends were working on this; the business was losing money and with the opening of new Central on Chaegwattana Road pushing costs upwards (the economy was bad at the time). Anyway, it took 10 hours to attempt to put the fire out (at 2am)- heck no one seemed that keen even the owners! Back at nearby Rajprasong, [Reds used Central World toilets from 3 April to 19 May] after the military went in the cameras went silent- journalists were not there of course given the risks, & UDD PTV satellite crushed…More a couple of hundred elderly folk and women stayed at the Rajprasong site. Many refused to move and some could not move anyway…Army shot all those remaining behind. Many, like me, must have seen the last moments leading up to this on PTV before it fell silent. These people have not been found and we can assume they were taken to Ccentral world for disposal. After long period of fire it is little likelihood that their remains will be found. No answers and no hope for so many. It is anticipated now that persons killed were in the hundreds, not as officials figures put it 88, and 1,900 injured. Dont listen to propaganda by the Butcher of Bangkok – more facts coming; it is just a matter of time

  13. MadabouTIT says:

    @ Alamo ..the unimaginable inevitably becomes the manageable after you mindfully entertain just 6 impossible things before breakfast, every day 😉

  14. The Frog says:

    Chris Beale, if anything wouldn’t Laotians would be more disposed to becoming part of Isan? I think if you look at migratory routes, you wouldnt see many from Thailand heading for the mountains.

  15. Ozorro says:

    Again for the benefit of ‘superanonymous’.

    a) When protests are peaceful and there no violence, how could there be terror?

    b) When there is mob violence, that’s criminal, but is there terror? That depends on whether or not the intention of the mob, and if such mob let their intentions be known by behaviour or other manner, is to create/instill terror. If it is merely unpremeditated unplanned disorganized type of mob violence, then more likely no terrorism but as I said that mob’s violence will definitely be criminal.

    c) In the case of PAD occupation of Suvarnabhumi airport, which I think is ‘superanonymous’ item for comparison, was there intent to create terror (threats of bombs or arsons or the like?). If none, then the PAD occupation of Suvarnabhumi airport was merely criminal, but will NOT fall under the category of terrorism.

    I am not a lawyer .. . just a layman’s viewpoint but I suspect more or less my viewpoint would match the ‘principle’ behind separating what is ‘terrorism’ and what is ‘not terrorism’.

    But what’s the point? PAD did NOT commit arson nor M79 bombing attacks. So from a legal and ethical viewpoint, it is going to be quite a stretch to place PAD’s shenanigans as falling under ‘terrorism’.

    Conclusion: Reds radicals rampage of M79 grenade/RPG attacks and arson definitely fall under ‘terrorism’. PAD occupation of Suvaranabhumi, criminal yes, but not terrorism.

  16. …any kind of workable longterm solution is just unimaginable.

    But why do you say that? First you argue convincingly that the elite is subtracting itself out of existence but then conclude, somehow, that change is impossible.

    When the elite are small enough to drown in the bathtub… drown ’em.

    Politically, of course.

  17. JohnH says:

    The Alamo: 6

    ”The simple truth of Thailand is that the elites loathe democracy and the establishment is so out of touch that any kind of workable longterm solution is just unimaginable.”

    Yes, I often wonder whether the apparent embrace of democracy in Thailand, and other countries for that matter, and certaintly more so in recent decades, has simply been a matter of pragmatic expediency. Mere wall paper, a facade.

    It certainly helps a country’s credentials when they want to attract both foreign private investment and social or infrastructure development funds.

    It does seem that there is no real will to establish a fully working, inclusive and representative democracy in Thailand, and, sadly, never has been.

  18. Mangoboy says:

    Excellent idea Nich (comment #2) It would be fascinating to see some academic flesh put on to this hypothesis that Isaan wishes to secede.

  19. I suggest some German anti-fascist Institute – of which Der Deutches BundesRepublick hast viel – gives the poor girl a scholarship to study in Germany.

    But it is Silpakorn University and Thailand that are the victims… can we pack up the whole country and send them off on scholarship? Silence is acquiescence. Silence enables the takeover of public institutions by the fascists.

    Yes Natthakarn is the immediate victim but she is not the target of this action. The target of this action is anyone who dares dissent in Thailand.

    And it’s working, apparently, at Silpakorn University.

  20. The Alamo says:

    The ideological limits of Thainess are now compacting and regressing. It is now firmly based on exclusion – who is deemed not Thai – rather than on a pluralistic, consensual and inclusive approch.

    Arguably, then, what constitutes Thainess is getting smaller and smaller. In the present situation this will only continue until what is “Thailand” is just a few wealthy and powerful enclaves in Bangkok and the south protected by an increasingly vicious army.

    The ONLY hope this approach has is backing from the West and even that would be short term rather than a strategic solution. Western publics can show remarkable forebearance when allowing their governments to support oppressive regimes (Iraq in 1980s being the best example) but ultimately Western support tends to rebound.

    Even devolution of power to Isaan etc via elected governors and the like is not within the logic of the present approach and nor will it ever be.

    The simple truth of Thailand is that the elites loathe democracy and the establishment is so out of touch that any kind of workable longterm solution is just unimaginable.