An informative and well written piece by Terry that reminds us that finger pointing and assigning blame in Indonesia often does not accurately identify those responsible who work with less public and media attention behind the scenes.
There is no direct and exact replication of historical events. To learn from history is to draw from other events in other countries lessons which can be learned. The following could be examined: North Ireland, Communist activities in Malaysia or even the American Independence from Britain.
I’ve been doing my own research. And find Jim T.’s comment very interesting. I have files on Chavalit going back to the days when the Far eastern Economic Review was published on wafer thin rice-paper !!
He’s an interesting case – may make a come-back. He’s long been written off by most almost all analysts (and sadly the King is apparently now in no fit state to harbour much – if any -0 thoughts about Big Jiew). Chavalit has come close to being PM a number of times before. His deals with the communists, and Malay separatists, count heavily against him. I think we have to wait for Prayut – a more successful Suchinda than the original, who was even more a fool – to fall on his own sword. Which this current fool looks certain to do. Prem’s next protegy, and the Democrats, wait in the wings – for what shows every sign of being : a very bloody denouement. Shades of May ’92 ? With a far more radicalised, angry Isaarn.
It’s an indication of a complete lack of familiarity with Thai people to suggest that a “complete lack of information” conditioned this vote.
It’s interesting how “informed decision” almost always substitutes for “what I think”.
Being “informed” about yet another piece of paper designed to firm up the status quo du jour until the next time does not include the dreamwork commitment to an ideology that has never had traction in Thailand and even less presence in reality.
Frankie Leung:
Would you please give 3-4 specific examples which approximate the Southern Thailand insurgency in terms of duration, casualties and ethno-religious demarcations where “rebellions were amicably put away with minimum violence and relative peace”? Links to articles or pdfs would be appreciated.
More so , the voters should of retained the right to vote him out which is what was likely to have happened prior to the first Thaksin coupe . This of course would have reinforced the value of the individuals vote and that was what terrified the poo yai’s and simply could not be allowed to occur .
Here is an attempt to solve a puzzle and it is not simple. Prayut admitted earlier that the bombings were “internal politics”. He was correct. However, few people know facts because of the many tangled, overlapping threads and ideological dead-ends. Nothing seems to make sense outside of self-interests, patronage (the status quo ante), and emergent new palace politics. Firstly, the military are not monolithic, with at least three modern historic factions, or four if we were to include the late Saedaeng ([Khattiya Sawasdipol], assassinated in 2010 for exposing too much of the truth). The core factions are Prem/Surayud (close to the Democrat Party, PDRC, and reactionary NGOs), Prayut/Prawit (supported in power for the coup from above, but considered by some to have overstayed and overused their authority), and — this is the wildcard — Chaowalit Yongchaiyudh, known to be once close to Thaksin and later Yingluck, targeted by Prayut because of his alleged (and not publicised) link to the “Revolution for Democracy Party”. It is from this new party that the 17 people were recently arrested (a number of these members are ex-CPT/CPS members) which readers would know about. Chaowalit is more ideologically astute than many of his colleagues in the army, and a constant threat to the political status quo (and, according to McCargo, also in being smart, mistrusted by the monarch). This new party would likely fill a void left by the dismembered Pheu Thai Party, whose coup de grâce will be assured under the new constitution by the time of the next (whenever) election. Not that the next election matters because of the implications of the regressive constitution. Indeed, most of the more competent Pheu Thai politicians also have trumped up criminal charges against them, and thus unable to stand for politics. Chaowalit, known to be close to the BRN members in the south through his work with the Komuniti Pulang Kampong had an alliance with the late CPT strategist Prasert Sapsunthorn who died in 1994. Chaovalit was also close to Prem at the time, overseeing Amnesty 66/2523. It is from this time that patronage divisions among ex-communists occurred. The fact is, now, under a fascist regime, there can be no challenge to Prayut’s authority. Prayut now has total control over the state (and indeed the sangha, as in withholding nomination of the Supreme Patriarch, endorsing the violence of Deva (Phutta-) Issara, which is all another story…) Readers should do their own research.
All those civilian politician did not seem to last too long in Thailand. Some were in better terms with the military than others. Eventually the military took over. I wonder why.
Terrorism is worst than guerrilla war fare because of cultural factors and grass-root penetration. Fighting terrorism just by regular warfare is destined to lose.
For once I agree with VichaiN. Jim Taylor also argues an interesting angle : but given the importance of tourism to propping up Prayut (which presumably Prem wants), on balance VichaiN seems more on the money than Taylor. I’m not discounting Prayut is now seeking maximum leverage. But this sock-sniffing fool is being typical ridiculous, rounding up the elderly. It’s young radicals around the length and breadth of Thailand who now see successful insurgency as model to copy-cat, for any grievance, and to settle any score. Like a slow-burning wild-fire, this will spread. Most likely : far and wide.
For motives, Thaksin S. certainly would be the number 1 suspect. His sister Yingluck S. is being tagged with a Bht 280 billion tab re the rice pledge horrendous losses. Thaksin S. daughter and son are under investigation for massive tax evasion, with revenue and finance officials already sentenced to jail for abetting Thaksin S. children. Election officials who abetted Thaksin S. in election shenanigans more than a decade ago have all been also recently given with long jail sentences. Etc. etc. etc.
But – there were no grenade launcher random (children and women were not maimed or killed) attacks, no arsons that could gut dozens of buildings or hotels or malls, no huge bombs that could flatten an apartment building . . . in short the recent bombings do not qualify for the Thaksin brand of large scale terror.
So this looks like the handiwork of Muslim radicals from the South.
Well I’m taking the longyi/baso back to London. I doubt it will ever die out completely at special events like weddings, particularly silk ones. You could say it’s the new (Asian) kilt.
They still take a lot of pride over them, especially in yangon where you essentially get criticised and judged for wearing the same longyi and/shirt combination on consecutive days.
So? Should Thailand just become a progressist one party state under TRT? The militarists and bureaucrats in power now are not pro-development in the least. Unless you mean realty development.
Thank you for your comment DHL. You’re quite right that longyis and longyi-like dress are worn in regions elsewhere than the Bay of Bengal, but I think it is a fair characterisation to say that the contiguous “belt” of the Bay is the longyi’s home region. And while “posh” restaurants often discriminate about dress the world over, in Kolkata the bar is far lower for the longyi.
Dear Luke,
where have you travelled? The loungy (lungi) is not only familiar in the Bay of Bengal, but also further south and east: look at the South Indians and North Sri Lankans in their ‘official’ vesti (white cotton or silk) and their work-a-day lungi (coloured, mostly checks), and the Malaysians in their sarongs. At least in India, there is no danger of them dying out, though trousers are on the rise. And vesti and lungi have been the dress of choice there for many centuries. The ‘house dress’ for most men in Tamilnadu is still the vesti or lungi (in summer, my husband claims, it is a better sleepware than any shorts or pyjamas could be).
Next time you want to go to a posh restaurant in India in a lungi, maybe you should a silk one in white or subdued colours with an elegant shirt?! At least in Chennai, there will be no problems. Good Luck!
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Violence in Thailand’s Deep South
thanks for an extraordinary insight into the southern insurgency,
the author seems to understand more than the top military,
Wiranto: war criminal or political moderate?
An informative and well written piece by Terry that reminds us that finger pointing and assigning blame in Indonesia often does not accurately identify those responsible who work with less public and media attention behind the scenes.
A vicious cycle of coups and constitutions
Are we close to a Prem-backed anti-Prayut coup ? The foreign exchange markets seem to think so. If there is going to be one – they have to act NOW : i.e. before the announcement of Bumiphol’s death.http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingnews/Poll-finds-people-blame-politics-for-bombings-arso-30293405.html
A new breed of terror in Thailand
See my up-coming comment for examples.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
There is no direct and exact replication of historical events. To learn from history is to draw from other events in other countries lessons which can be learned. The following could be examined: North Ireland, Communist activities in Malaysia or even the American Independence from Britain.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
I’ve been doing my own research. And find Jim T.’s comment very interesting. I have files on Chavalit going back to the days when the Far eastern Economic Review was published on wafer thin rice-paper !!
He’s an interesting case – may make a come-back. He’s long been written off by most almost all analysts (and sadly the King is apparently now in no fit state to harbour much – if any -0 thoughts about Big Jiew). Chavalit has come close to being PM a number of times before. His deals with the communists, and Malay separatists, count heavily against him. I think we have to wait for Prayut – a more successful Suchinda than the original, who was even more a fool – to fall on his own sword. Which this current fool looks certain to do. Prem’s next protegy, and the Democrats, wait in the wings – for what shows every sign of being : a very bloody denouement. Shades of May ’92 ? With a far more radicalised, angry Isaarn.
A vague vote and uncertain future
It’s an indication of a complete lack of familiarity with Thai people to suggest that a “complete lack of information” conditioned this vote.
It’s interesting how “informed decision” almost always substitutes for “what I think”.
Being “informed” about yet another piece of paper designed to firm up the status quo du jour until the next time does not include the dreamwork commitment to an ideology that has never had traction in Thailand and even less presence in reality.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Frankie Leung:
Would you please give 3-4 specific examples which approximate the Southern Thailand insurgency in terms of duration, casualties and ethno-religious demarcations where “rebellions were amicably put away with minimum violence and relative peace”? Links to articles or pdfs would be appreciated.
A vague vote and uncertain future
More so , the voters should of retained the right to vote him out which is what was likely to have happened prior to the first Thaksin coupe . This of course would have reinforced the value of the individuals vote and that was what terrified the poo yai’s and simply could not be allowed to occur .
Decades of dominance and a junta’s demise
Heads Up to a piece of satire by the Famed Harrison George .
Voters of the world, unite!
http://prachatai.org/english/node/6494
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Here is an attempt to solve a puzzle and it is not simple. Prayut admitted earlier that the bombings were “internal politics”. He was correct. However, few people know facts because of the many tangled, overlapping threads and ideological dead-ends. Nothing seems to make sense outside of self-interests, patronage (the status quo ante), and emergent new palace politics. Firstly, the military are not monolithic, with at least three modern historic factions, or four if we were to include the late Saedaeng ([Khattiya Sawasdipol], assassinated in 2010 for exposing too much of the truth). The core factions are Prem/Surayud (close to the Democrat Party, PDRC, and reactionary NGOs), Prayut/Prawit (supported in power for the coup from above, but considered by some to have overstayed and overused their authority), and — this is the wildcard — Chaowalit Yongchaiyudh, known to be once close to Thaksin and later Yingluck, targeted by Prayut because of his alleged (and not publicised) link to the “Revolution for Democracy Party”. It is from this new party that the 17 people were recently arrested (a number of these members are ex-CPT/CPS members) which readers would know about. Chaowalit is more ideologically astute than many of his colleagues in the army, and a constant threat to the political status quo (and, according to McCargo, also in being smart, mistrusted by the monarch). This new party would likely fill a void left by the dismembered Pheu Thai Party, whose coup de grâce will be assured under the new constitution by the time of the next (whenever) election. Not that the next election matters because of the implications of the regressive constitution. Indeed, most of the more competent Pheu Thai politicians also have trumped up criminal charges against them, and thus unable to stand for politics. Chaowalit, known to be close to the BRN members in the south through his work with the Komuniti Pulang Kampong had an alliance with the late CPT strategist Prasert Sapsunthorn who died in 1994. Chaovalit was also close to Prem at the time, overseeing Amnesty 66/2523. It is from this time that patronage divisions among ex-communists occurred. The fact is, now, under a fascist regime, there can be no challenge to Prayut’s authority. Prayut now has total control over the state (and indeed the sangha, as in withholding nomination of the Supreme Patriarch, endorsing the violence of Deva (Phutta-) Issara, which is all another story…) Readers should do their own research.
A vague vote and uncertain future
All those civilian politician did not seem to last too long in Thailand. Some were in better terms with the military than others. Eventually the military took over. I wonder why.
A vague vote and uncertain future
He should have the right to get a fair trial.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Terrorism is worst than guerrilla war fare because of cultural factors and grass-root penetration. Fighting terrorism just by regular warfare is destined to lose.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
For once I agree with VichaiN. Jim Taylor also argues an interesting angle : but given the importance of tourism to propping up Prayut (which presumably Prem wants), on balance VichaiN seems more on the money than Taylor. I’m not discounting Prayut is now seeking maximum leverage. But this sock-sniffing fool is being typical ridiculous, rounding up the elderly. It’s young radicals around the length and breadth of Thailand who now see successful insurgency as model to copy-cat, for any grievance, and to settle any score. Like a slow-burning wild-fire, this will spread. Most likely : far and wide.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
For motives, Thaksin S. certainly would be the number 1 suspect. His sister Yingluck S. is being tagged with a Bht 280 billion tab re the rice pledge horrendous losses. Thaksin S. daughter and son are under investigation for massive tax evasion, with revenue and finance officials already sentenced to jail for abetting Thaksin S. children. Election officials who abetted Thaksin S. in election shenanigans more than a decade ago have all been also recently given with long jail sentences. Etc. etc. etc.
But – there were no grenade launcher random (children and women were not maimed or killed) attacks, no arsons that could gut dozens of buildings or hotels or malls, no huge bombs that could flatten an apartment building . . . in short the recent bombings do not qualify for the Thaksin brand of large scale terror.
So this looks like the handiwork of Muslim radicals from the South.
How long can the longyi last?
Well I’m taking the longyi/baso back to London. I doubt it will ever die out completely at special events like weddings, particularly silk ones. You could say it’s the new (Asian) kilt.
They still take a lot of pride over them, especially in yangon where you essentially get criticised and judged for wearing the same longyi and/shirt combination on consecutive days.
Tim Simonson
Decades of dominance and a junta’s demise
So? Should Thailand just become a progressist one party state under TRT? The militarists and bureaucrats in power now are not pro-development in the least. Unless you mean realty development.
How long can the longyi last?
Thank you for your comment DHL. You’re quite right that longyis and longyi-like dress are worn in regions elsewhere than the Bay of Bengal, but I think it is a fair characterisation to say that the contiguous “belt” of the Bay is the longyi’s home region. And while “posh” restaurants often discriminate about dress the world over, in Kolkata the bar is far lower for the longyi.
How long can the longyi last?
Dear Luke,
where have you travelled? The loungy (lungi) is not only familiar in the Bay of Bengal, but also further south and east: look at the South Indians and North Sri Lankans in their ‘official’ vesti (white cotton or silk) and their work-a-day lungi (coloured, mostly checks), and the Malaysians in their sarongs. At least in India, there is no danger of them dying out, though trousers are on the rise. And vesti and lungi have been the dress of choice there for many centuries. The ‘house dress’ for most men in Tamilnadu is still the vesti or lungi (in summer, my husband claims, it is a better sleepware than any shorts or pyjamas could be).
Next time you want to go to a posh restaurant in India in a lungi, maybe you should a silk one in white or subdued colours with an elegant shirt?! At least in Chennai, there will be no problems. Good Luck!