Frank G. Anderson – that’s a chicken or the egg question, if ever I saw one !! It’s obviously a two-way intercourse between Palace backers and packers of the military, and military backers and packers of the Palace. Defense a la derniere !!
Well now we have a model for improving the image of authoritarianism: after total control and zero meaningful free expression is assured by the very nature of the government, draconian legislation, and pervasive police surveillance, it is not only safe to quietly back down from an egregious abuse once in awhile, but also the despotism will be rewarded with upbeat praise from international academics as “benevolence”, “positive”, and “pragmatic”.
If this is what passes for independent analysis from academia these days, authoritarian governments can shut down their propaganda ministries, and just outsource the work to the “experts”.
Jory has half of it in reverse when he cites the military backers in the Palace. In fact, royalists are being supported by the military. The reason is two-fold: protect the institution and secondly, keep using it to preserve and enhance elite social stations.
If Malaysia is not having institutional changes and continues with the same policies over ethnic relations, press freedom, unequal opportunities, the kind of acts committed by Najib will continue even if he leaves office.
R.N. England – to be fair to the author, he didn’t actually say they did. And I am sure you’re right about the Red Shirt LEADERSHIP, most of their followers, and the wider democracy movements which are now much more than simply the Red Shirts. But I do believe there are more radical elements who use violence. Indeed we saw this during the build up to the 2010 crackdown, with eg. the men in black. At least on this I agree somewhat with Prayut !! Though he is totally the wrong person to achieve genuine reconciliation in Thailand.
Here is some important information for this “Senior Lecturer of Tourism”. The members of the Thai democracy movement, who form the most numerous and widespread opposition to the military régime, do not murder their own people, or anybody else.
China Neptunian has a dispute with the Philippines that China will win because they have more guns, we will deal with USA at another more appropriate time
“they believe in the power of the gun, sound familiar? .”
Are you talking about the USA or China. Seeems like all the examples one can quote in the last 40 years where the statement will ring true, involves the USA!
Frankie Leung:
Your three examples completely contradict your statement: “how rebellions were amicably put away with minimum violence and relative peace”. All three examples you give involved extensive use of violence and military force. Many moons ago the US paratrooper battalion that I served in had a guest Major from the British paratroops. One task he had was training us in counter insurgency using military force based on his extensive military experience in Northern Ireland. The Malaysian communist rebellion is often used as an example where proper military counter measures (by the British) mostly succeeded. And of course the USA revolution was an all out war, hence Americans calling the conflict “the Revolutionary War” and not “the Revolutionary Amicable Settlement”.
Of course Southern Thailand has long since passed beyond “minimum violence and relative peace”, so comparing examples of rebellions in a stage of minimum violence and relative peace with Southern Thailand can be useful; however, it will take comparisons to violent rebellions, such as your three examples, to generate solutions.
And so by your examples, what the Thai government needs to look at is how to properly conduct military operations against the Muslim insurgents in Southern Thailand in order to defeat them military or at least make the fight too costly for them and thus force the insurgents to the negotiating table. Then perhaps an “amicable” settlement can be made.
Quite the opposite VichaiN. That upward trend in the baht reflects the Thai elites’ desire to move as much as possible of their liquid assets into safe haven US dollars, at the best manipulated rate possible. Sure if these were normal pure markets (the global, the US, and the Thai), then what I’ve just said would work the other way, i.e. the baht would decline and the US$ would rise. But they are not, and have n’t been since the GFC (2007-08), before which market – though not pure – were at least purER. Since then there has been something of a global currency war, waged especially through US quantitative easy (i.e. printing US dollars and US interest rates being kept lower than they otherwise would be. Thailand has not done quantitative easing on anything like a proportionate scale to the US, and Thai interest rates have been kept high compared to the US. Thus the surely surface empirical data which leads you to your wrong conclusion. But the underlying fact is : the baht is over-valued, and the US undervalued, in relation to their fundamental strengths. Politics is currently in charge of economics. But there will certainly be a correction, probably a sharp one. High interest rates are driving ever increasing numbers of poor and ordinary Thais into snowballing debt (not that the elites’ care much about that, since they do the lending), while the high baht is flat-lining exports (not that the elites care greatly about that since a large chunk of Thai manufactured exports is by foreign manufacturing firms, whose investments have all but stopped). China is a bubble waiting to burst, and we’ve yet to see the full effect of the bombings on tourism (which of course, has also been keeping the baht high). Prayut’s good news story is a house of cards, waiting to crumble.
Martial law is next at which point it will so easy for China to claim all the disputed territory/ resources in the Islands and in the Ocean. Duterte wants to negotiate with China without realising they hold him in contempt and the Chinese mainlanders never negotiate, they believe in the power of the gun, sound familiar? .
To be frank, the Philippine President Duterte looks like a slob. And with the trigger-itchy pinoy police getting the Duterte license to shoot any suspect on sight, every Pilipino citizen is at risk … deathly risk, that is.
Do you Chris Beale really understand how foreign exchange markets behave? I don’t either, but if anyone who checked the history of how the Thai Baht Thad strengthened against the USD during the past 365 days year period would draw a conclusion that the foreign exchange markets have more confidence in the stability of the Thai government under General Prayuth, before and after the recent referendum.
At the risk of being shot, democracy is not perfect enough for Duterte. He will shortly declare a dictatorship with his and the Marcos family as the Godfathers. Millions of people will take to the streets to overthrow him and his family. Happened before. Marcos wanted to kill all the Muslims, where are the Muslims today, still there.
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The real meaning of Thailand’s referendum
But don’t worry too much about it Frank. It’s all Prem and proper !
Will bombs burst Thailand’s tourism bubble?
There are well-organised, well-trained and well-armed factions within the red shirt movement. Thankfully they’re keeping a low profile for now.
The real meaning of Thailand’s referendum
Frank G. Anderson – that’s a chicken or the egg question, if ever I saw one !! It’s obviously a two-way intercourse between Palace backers and packers of the military, and military backers and packers of the Palace. Defense a la derniere !!
Backlash and benevolence in Brunei
Well now we have a model for improving the image of authoritarianism: after total control and zero meaningful free expression is assured by the very nature of the government, draconian legislation, and pervasive police surveillance, it is not only safe to quietly back down from an egregious abuse once in awhile, but also the despotism will be rewarded with upbeat praise from international academics as “benevolence”, “positive”, and “pragmatic”.
If this is what passes for independent analysis from academia these days, authoritarian governments can shut down their propaganda ministries, and just outsource the work to the “experts”.
The real meaning of Thailand’s referendum
Jory has half of it in reverse when he cites the military backers in the Palace. In fact, royalists are being supported by the military. The reason is two-fold: protect the institution and secondly, keep using it to preserve and enhance elite social stations.
Crisis and confidence in Najib’s Malaysia
If Malaysia is not having institutional changes and continues with the same policies over ethnic relations, press freedom, unequal opportunities, the kind of acts committed by Najib will continue even if he leaves office.
Will bombs burst Thailand’s tourism bubble?
R.N. England – to be fair to the author, he didn’t actually say they did. And I am sure you’re right about the Red Shirt LEADERSHIP, most of their followers, and the wider democracy movements which are now much more than simply the Red Shirts. But I do believe there are more radical elements who use violence. Indeed we saw this during the build up to the 2010 crackdown, with eg. the men in black. At least on this I agree somewhat with Prayut !! Though he is totally the wrong person to achieve genuine reconciliation in Thailand.
The real meaning of Thailand’s referendum
good piece Patrick. see critique on PPT: https://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/2016/08/20/jory-on-referendum-and-political-future/
That is for those readers still living outside single gateway, Thailand’s Ministry of Propaganda.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Unfortunately, there are no ‘proper military counter measures’ to deal with terrorism. The only answer is peaceful negotiation.
Will bombs burst Thailand’s tourism bubble?
Here is some important information for this “Senior Lecturer of Tourism”. The members of the Thai democracy movement, who form the most numerous and widespread opposition to the military régime, do not murder their own people, or anybody else.
Duterte a law unto himself
China Neptunian has a dispute with the Philippines that China will win because they have more guns, we will deal with USA at another more appropriate time
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Read carefully what I wrote. I suggested that we should explore and examine. I did not prescribe any solution.
Duterte a law unto himself
“they believe in the power of the gun, sound familiar? .”
Are you talking about the USA or China. Seeems like all the examples one can quote in the last 40 years where the statement will ring true, involves the USA!
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Frankie Leung:
Your three examples completely contradict your statement: “how rebellions were amicably put away with minimum violence and relative peace”. All three examples you give involved extensive use of violence and military force. Many moons ago the US paratrooper battalion that I served in had a guest Major from the British paratroops. One task he had was training us in counter insurgency using military force based on his extensive military experience in Northern Ireland. The Malaysian communist rebellion is often used as an example where proper military counter measures (by the British) mostly succeeded. And of course the USA revolution was an all out war, hence Americans calling the conflict “the Revolutionary War” and not “the Revolutionary Amicable Settlement”.
Of course Southern Thailand has long since passed beyond “minimum violence and relative peace”, so comparing examples of rebellions in a stage of minimum violence and relative peace with Southern Thailand can be useful; however, it will take comparisons to violent rebellions, such as your three examples, to generate solutions.
And so by your examples, what the Thai government needs to look at is how to properly conduct military operations against the Muslim insurgents in Southern Thailand in order to defeat them military or at least make the fight too costly for them and thus force the insurgents to the negotiating table. Then perhaps an “amicable” settlement can be made.
Will bombs burst Thailand’s tourism bubble?
Tourism is the life blood of Thailand.
A vicious cycle of coups and constitutions
Quite the opposite VichaiN. That upward trend in the baht reflects the Thai elites’ desire to move as much as possible of their liquid assets into safe haven US dollars, at the best manipulated rate possible. Sure if these were normal pure markets (the global, the US, and the Thai), then what I’ve just said would work the other way, i.e. the baht would decline and the US$ would rise. But they are not, and have n’t been since the GFC (2007-08), before which market – though not pure – were at least purER. Since then there has been something of a global currency war, waged especially through US quantitative easy (i.e. printing US dollars and US interest rates being kept lower than they otherwise would be. Thailand has not done quantitative easing on anything like a proportionate scale to the US, and Thai interest rates have been kept high compared to the US. Thus the surely surface empirical data which leads you to your wrong conclusion. But the underlying fact is : the baht is over-valued, and the US undervalued, in relation to their fundamental strengths. Politics is currently in charge of economics. But there will certainly be a correction, probably a sharp one. High interest rates are driving ever increasing numbers of poor and ordinary Thais into snowballing debt (not that the elites’ care much about that, since they do the lending), while the high baht is flat-lining exports (not that the elites care greatly about that since a large chunk of Thai manufactured exports is by foreign manufacturing firms, whose investments have all but stopped). China is a bubble waiting to burst, and we’ve yet to see the full effect of the bombings on tourism (which of course, has also been keeping the baht high). Prayut’s good news story is a house of cards, waiting to crumble.
Duterte a law unto himself
Martial law is next at which point it will so easy for China to claim all the disputed territory/ resources in the Islands and in the Ocean. Duterte wants to negotiate with China without realising they hold him in contempt and the Chinese mainlanders never negotiate, they believe in the power of the gun, sound familiar? .
Duterte a law unto himself
To be frank, the Philippine President Duterte looks like a slob. And with the trigger-itchy pinoy police getting the Duterte license to shoot any suspect on sight, every Pilipino citizen is at risk … deathly risk, that is.
A vicious cycle of coups and constitutions
Do you Chris Beale really understand how foreign exchange markets behave? I don’t either, but if anyone who checked the history of how the Thai Baht Thad strengthened against the USD during the past 365 days year period would draw a conclusion that the foreign exchange markets have more confidence in the stability of the Thai government under General Prayuth, before and after the recent referendum.
Duterte a law unto himself
At the risk of being shot, democracy is not perfect enough for Duterte. He will shortly declare a dictatorship with his and the Marcos family as the Godfathers. Millions of people will take to the streets to overthrow him and his family. Happened before. Marcos wanted to kill all the Muslims, where are the Muslims today, still there.