Term limits are meaningless in the Philippines. It was Noy Noy’s relative intelligence that somewhat improved the Filipino polity. Madonnas in the Philippines are best left to statuettes, mothers, girlfriends, occasional wives and hallucinating over-exuberant Catholics. Unlike (ironically) less democratic Malaysia, where there are virtuous “Madonnas” (NOT Muslimahs), like Noor Farida Ariffin, a very capable retired ex-UMNO Ambassador to the Netherlands, a moderate Muslim and a member of the G-25 movement, the Philippines wants their martyrs to be perfect, and Cory wasn’t. Not that anyone on the planet is. The Philippines problem isn’t that there aren’t capable women who can, in principle, become President, it’s the inevitable corruption, elitism (Cojuangco, Inc.) that is inescapable. Malaysia, if it would get its act together and dump Shari’a Law (never gonna happen), could elect a few (not many) unassailably honest, competent, non-corrupt and devoted Prime Ministers. If you are expecting a clone of the shockingly competent and clearly dynamic Taiwanese Leader Tsai Ing-wen, forget it. She is one of a kind and she would chafe at being called a Madonna. As for May or FM Bishop in Oz, I am not especially impressed, but I think Bishop is the more experienced of the two, and Turnbull let’s her do pretty much what she wants. After Cameron, anyone other than the neo-Fascist British Labour Party, is an improvement. Such could be said for whomever succeeds Duterte, who wishes he was “Rocky” or some Clint Eastwood cowboy. I think “For a few dollars more” is an appropriate title. Sorry, if I sound like I am nostalgic for Ramos, but in a way, I am.
‘To be clear’ the author is a member of that great flock who prefer to cling to the fantasies doled out to them by captive governments and media, rather than face the facts.
Why is India building a 3000km barrier fence along its border with Bangladesh, at vast expense? How many of the ‘native’ Rohingya in northern Rakhine state can actually speak Burmese? The Rohingya National Army is equipped and controlled by Saudi Arabia, which is in turn equipped and controlled by whom?
‘The Rohingya claim a centuries-long connection to Rakhine but this history is disputed by many in Myanmar’. The author omits the phrase ‘….and every serious scholar in the field’, thereby suggesting that this is merely local pseudo-history, when in fact the opposite is true.
In British colonial times Muslims in northern Rakhine amounted to less than five percent of the population, and in the present day they amount to 80-98% of the population. What can account for this extraordinary demographic change? Perhaps the number of illegal migrants that Bangladesh implored Myanmar not to return in 1975 amounted to rather more than the official figure of half a million. The number of Bangladeshi migrants fleeing political, environmental and economic instability in their homeland since 1975 is reckoned in the millions.
What is interesting about the ‘Rohingya’ is the way that human rights and other issues that formerly belonged to the Western liberal tradition have been skillfully twisted into information warfare in order to serve Western corporate and governmental interests. In this way, Vladimir Putin is a brutal homophobe, and the Burmese are savage racists and bigots. The instant that Russia and Myanmar agree to adopt vassal status to the American ‘international community’ these accusations will evaporate, and thereafter they will be able to commit genuine crimes with comparative impunity.
There are no “Rohingya”. There are only recent Bangladeshi Muslim migrants. The Govermentment of Myanmar is correct and cease your bogus “Palestinization” of Myanmar for your own ideological ends.
There have been some incredibly illuminating – and extremely brave – articles appearing @Asia Sentinel and Asia Correspondent just recently, about what has happened to former The Manager publisher Sondhi Limongthukal. And the brutal royalist politics, behind his demise.
Noynoy couldn’t run for re-election under the one term limit in the Philippines introduced after the overthrow of Marcos to ensure no future dictator could emerge. Can see the point, but two 4 year terms as in the US may have been a better option for accountability purposes. Term limits in the Filipino congress have had the perverse effect of strengthening political dynasties, the exact opposite of what was sought. The party list system also designed to reduce the importance of political dynasties has not achieved this objective either.
I commiserate with Filipino’s wanting a truly democratic future in their country: seems each time the caiques/’trappos”/ political oligarchs can circumvent their best efforts.
Perhaps only a Madonna (virtuous female political leader) can break this cycle. After all in the UK Theresa May (or may not) has been left to clean up the mess left by the boys in the Tory Party, namely Brexit. But a future savior would need to be much less naive (and without her own clan’s vested interests) than “Saint Cory”.
The ‘Sarawak for Sarawakians’ stickers are visible everywhere: auto bumpers, shopfronts, and public gathering spots. But after weeks of travel in Sabah, I’ve never seen ‘Sabah for Sabahians’ until reading this article. In fact, I did not know the colors of Sabah’s flag until National day came around, while the Sarawak colors have become a staple of advertising.
And, yes, I was wondering why the ‘Sarawak for Sarawakians’ movement is able to operate openly and freely, while at the same time in Sarawak a driver was hauled into police headquarters for questioning (and faced arrest for ‘intent to provoke a breach of the peace’ – which could result in a two-year jail sentence) for displaying a sticker that merely said ‘#TangkapNajib’, which news reports translated as ‘calling for the arrest of’ Najib.
Peter Cohen – re. Daffy Duck. You must be referring to the good Ducks’ 100 percent approval rating. But you’re wrong. Duterte sits on a miserable 90 plus percent. He’ll never beat the Duck.
You make valid points which are credible and I agree with you. I would hate to see another street protest which could turn violent, but Duterte has as much intellectual and political legitimacy as Daffy Duck, perhaps less. I agree with you about Leni Robredo completely, and in fact, I am generally dubious about past male leaders of the Philippines at least during and post-Marcos, though I am still a defender of Noy Noy. He has his positives, but yes, the system, well…..sucks. Leni is popular, honest and can command a broader range of support, but that very system that allows limited democracy will has a fence that cannot be jumped. At least women can become politicians and leaders in the Philippines, something not afforded their counterparts in increasingly Monty Python Malaysia.
I generally agree with this really informative and thought provoking article.
I would very much like to empathize the need for political parties to start working on developing their political platforms long before the official campaign starts, though.
Debate must take place all year long, between now and then, not just during the last few weeks before the elections take place, so civil society, the private sector and the international community must work not only with the Government but also with all political parties on building strong and practical political platforms that offer a range of political options the people of Myanmar can chose from.
I’m not sure it is true that ┬л the views of different parties on many issues are already known ┬╗, or rather, this is only true to the extent that these issues have been publicly discussed in the last few years, and frankly this falls short of the kind of debate that would be needed for the reforms to be meaningful and actually improve people’s lives.
Change has indeed been limited, and it’s been experienced by only a limited number of people. While personal freedoms have greatly expanded since 2011 and in many cases earlier, harsh economic realities have barely been affected by recent reforms for millions of poor farmers (when the rush for land has not meant their lives have actually become more difficult) and hundreds of thousands of workers.
On the most pressing matters, how to reform the state, the economy, education, the health-care system or the justice system, we know frighteningly little of the views of the various political parties. Even the best experts of education in Myanmar, foreigners and locals alike, cannot tell what the Government really wants to do, and no-one seems to know what any political party would want to do either, beyond vague slogans.
The same can be said of the economy, and so on and so forth. If we asked all political parties to play a game where there would be a prize for the best proposal on how to reform the state, in, say, a hundred pages, I have a strong feeling the competition would be played at a very low level. When one thinks that this is maybe the most important issue on the agenda of any Government that runs Myanmar from 2016 to 2021, this is a bit of a concern.
The longyi is still common in rural Bangladesh, Orissa etc, but the Burmese ones are particularly beautiful. Interested you wore one in the outback – wearing one even in Sydney in the 1970s was something you only did once!
Peter,
These are valid points but there is, in my view, a problem of structures as well as actors (Pol. Sc 101) in the Philippines. Amongst a number of systemic problems of the Filipino political system is the one round, “first past the post”, voting system for presidential and vice presidential elections. (Like watery coffee and Coca Cola another of the unfortunate vestiges of American colonialism).
Sure Duterte received a relative majority (just over 40%) – doing better, say, than Ramos who was elected with about a quarter of the votes – but not an absolute one. Indonesia (and France amongst many others) offer a better system with a two round election and a run-off between the two candidates who have received the most votes. At least the candidate elected can claim to have the support of the majority of voters and fringe candidates tend to be eliminated.
I guess in the Philippines the unique separate election of the vice president is seen as providing a safety valve. This means in practice that since 1986 the VP is often of a different political party (or political clan) than the president.
But does this system really provide a safety valve? In June 2016 Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo was elected with 35.1% of the vote just squeaking ahead of ‘Bonbong’ Marcos, the son of Ferdinand Marcos, who obtained 34.6% of the vote… Imagining a Duterte – Marcos ‘tough guy’ duo is too frightening to contemplate.
Still prior to the elections there was talk (particularly in Makatai from what I gather) of repeating the Estrada – Arroyo scenario where Joseph ‘Erap’ Estrada accused of corruption (plus stupidity, illiteracy and womanising) was impeached and replaced by his VP, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
How feasible/possible/desirable is this? Leni Robredo seems to be the exact opposite of “The Punisher” with a reputation for honesty and integrity and a basic respect for democracy. In other words, like Cory Acquino, she could e the figurehead around whom a peaceful political/judicial overthrow of Duterte could be organized.
What do fellow NM readers/contributors think of such a scenario?
Wages, in real terms, were/are falling. But grain prices are/were falling even more. That knowledge must have been mild comfort to salary men of the world.
So now what? What are grain and rice farmers supposed to do: groan and moan is all they could do.
A secretive separatist group in the southern border region has taken responsibility for last month’s bombing attacks in the south of Thailand, according to a Malaysian news agency.
In an unprecedented move, an unnamed commander in the National Revolution Front, or BRN, told BenarNews it was behind not only Tuesday’s bomb attack at a school in Pattani province, but the spree of bomb and arson attacks in seven provinces that killed four people during the Mother’s Day holiday in August.
Thanks for this update on the career of Bui Qang Vinh: things move so fast in Vietnam that a rising star one day can be a falling star the day after. Demonstrates the appropriateness of the more sophisticated analytical grid Hien and I are proposing which posits an evolving continuum to situate Communist Party cadres. Moreover as we know from past experience retirement may, or may not, mean a loss of influence.
Duterte is not merely anti-American (so was Jose Rizal and Ramon Macapagal for perhaps legitimate reasons), but Duterte rises to the
level of illiteracy and uncouthness one has come to expect from Donald Trump, whom I strongly suspect is offering some of his advisors to Duterte, since American law firms love to make money advising foreign leaders to act like idiots. It is one thing to parade around like a balloon (Kim Jong Un), but Duterte, in total contrast to the educated and well-spoken Aquino (slash Cojuangco clan), is a complete fool, and would make Joe Biden look proprietary (of course, Biden has never said anything truly uncouth or rude). I maintain, again, the removal of Noy Noy Aquino was a grave mistake, and this Duterte is simply Hugo Chavez (may he rot in hell) in SE Asia. On the China, side, I agree with you about Laos and Cambodia, but I think like Indonesia, the Philippines will continue to happily take Chinese money but play the nationalist card in public. Thailand and Singapore barely hide their love of China and Malaysia is in free-fall anyway.
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A shroud of violence in the Philippines
10 September 2016 at 12:11 am
David,
Term limits are meaningless in the Philippines. It was Noy Noy’s relative intelligence that somewhat improved the Filipino polity. Madonnas in the Philippines are best left to statuettes, mothers, girlfriends, occasional wives and hallucinating over-exuberant Catholics. Unlike (ironically) less democratic Malaysia, where there are virtuous “Madonnas” (NOT Muslimahs), like Noor Farida Ariffin, a very capable retired ex-UMNO Ambassador to the Netherlands, a moderate Muslim and a member of the G-25 movement, the Philippines wants their martyrs to be perfect, and Cory wasn’t. Not that anyone on the planet is. The Philippines problem isn’t that there aren’t capable women who can, in principle, become President, it’s the inevitable corruption, elitism (Cojuangco, Inc.) that is inescapable. Malaysia, if it would get its act together and dump Shari’a Law (never gonna happen), could elect a few (not many) unassailably honest, competent, non-corrupt and devoted Prime Ministers. If you are expecting a clone of the shockingly competent and clearly dynamic Taiwanese Leader Tsai Ing-wen, forget it. She is one of a kind and she would chafe at being called a Madonna. As for May or FM Bishop in Oz, I am not especially impressed, but I think Bishop is the more experienced of the two, and Turnbull let’s her do pretty much what she wants. After Cameron, anyone other than the neo-Fascist British Labour Party, is an improvement. Such could be said for whomever succeeds Duterte, who wishes he was “Rocky” or some Clint Eastwood cowboy. I think “For a few dollars more” is an appropriate title. Sorry, if I sound like I am nostalgic for Ramos, but in a way, I am.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Suspect one Suthep Thaugsuban is sleeping a little less soundly these days ……..
A new breed of terror in Thailand
Simply out lived his usefulness ………………….
Myanmar’s Rohingya need tomorrow’s fairer world today
‘To be clear’ the author is a member of that great flock who prefer to cling to the fantasies doled out to them by captive governments and media, rather than face the facts.
Why is India building a 3000km barrier fence along its border with Bangladesh, at vast expense? How many of the ‘native’ Rohingya in northern Rakhine state can actually speak Burmese? The Rohingya National Army is equipped and controlled by Saudi Arabia, which is in turn equipped and controlled by whom?
‘The Rohingya claim a centuries-long connection to Rakhine but this history is disputed by many in Myanmar’. The author omits the phrase ‘….and every serious scholar in the field’, thereby suggesting that this is merely local pseudo-history, when in fact the opposite is true.
In British colonial times Muslims in northern Rakhine amounted to less than five percent of the population, and in the present day they amount to 80-98% of the population. What can account for this extraordinary demographic change? Perhaps the number of illegal migrants that Bangladesh implored Myanmar not to return in 1975 amounted to rather more than the official figure of half a million. The number of Bangladeshi migrants fleeing political, environmental and economic instability in their homeland since 1975 is reckoned in the millions.
What is interesting about the ‘Rohingya’ is the way that human rights and other issues that formerly belonged to the Western liberal tradition have been skillfully twisted into information warfare in order to serve Western corporate and governmental interests. In this way, Vladimir Putin is a brutal homophobe, and the Burmese are savage racists and bigots. The instant that Russia and Myanmar agree to adopt vassal status to the American ‘international community’ these accusations will evaporate, and thereafter they will be able to commit genuine crimes with comparative impunity.
Myanmar’s Rohingya need tomorrow’s fairer world today
There are no “Rohingya”. There are only recent Bangladeshi Muslim migrants. The Govermentment of Myanmar is correct and cease your bogus “Palestinization” of Myanmar for your own ideological ends.
A new breed of terror in Thailand
There have been some incredibly illuminating – and extremely brave – articles appearing @Asia Sentinel and Asia Correspondent just recently, about what has happened to former The Manager publisher Sondhi Limongthukal. And the brutal royalist politics, behind his demise.
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
Noynoy couldn’t run for re-election under the one term limit in the Philippines introduced after the overthrow of Marcos to ensure no future dictator could emerge. Can see the point, but two 4 year terms as in the US may have been a better option for accountability purposes. Term limits in the Filipino congress have had the perverse effect of strengthening political dynasties, the exact opposite of what was sought. The party list system also designed to reduce the importance of political dynasties has not achieved this objective either.
I commiserate with Filipino’s wanting a truly democratic future in their country: seems each time the caiques/’trappos”/ political oligarchs can circumvent their best efforts.
Perhaps only a Madonna (virtuous female political leader) can break this cycle. After all in the UK Theresa May (or may not) has been left to clean up the mess left by the boys in the Tory Party, namely Brexit. But a future savior would need to be much less naive (and without her own clan’s vested interests) than “Saint Cory”.
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
That was sort of my inference…..
Malaysia the fragile federation
The ‘Sarawak for Sarawakians’ stickers are visible everywhere: auto bumpers, shopfronts, and public gathering spots. But after weeks of travel in Sabah, I’ve never seen ‘Sabah for Sabahians’ until reading this article. In fact, I did not know the colors of Sabah’s flag until National day came around, while the Sarawak colors have become a staple of advertising.
And, yes, I was wondering why the ‘Sarawak for Sarawakians’ movement is able to operate openly and freely, while at the same time in Sarawak a driver was hauled into police headquarters for questioning (and faced arrest for ‘intent to provoke a breach of the peace’ – which could result in a two-year jail sentence) for displaying a sticker that merely said ‘#TangkapNajib’, which news reports translated as ‘calling for the arrest of’ Najib.
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
Peter Cohen – re. Daffy Duck. You must be referring to the good Ducks’ 100 percent approval rating. But you’re wrong. Duterte sits on a miserable 90 plus percent. He’ll never beat the Duck.
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
David,
You make valid points which are credible and I agree with you. I would hate to see another street protest which could turn violent, but Duterte has as much intellectual and political legitimacy as Daffy Duck, perhaps less. I agree with you about Leni Robredo completely, and in fact, I am generally dubious about past male leaders of the Philippines at least during and post-Marcos, though I am still a defender of Noy Noy. He has his positives, but yes, the system, well…..sucks. Leni is popular, honest and can command a broader range of support, but that very system that allows limited democracy will has a fence that cannot be jumped. At least women can become politicians and leaders in the Philippines, something not afforded their counterparts in increasingly Monty Python Malaysia.
A policy without a strategy
Is former Indonesian Energy Minister Sudirman Said going to jail?
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/09/08/court-rules-recording-can-t-be-used-against-golkar-chief.html
Will Myanmar’s reforms continue after 2015?
I generally agree with this really informative and thought provoking article.
I would very much like to empathize the need for political parties to start working on developing their political platforms long before the official campaign starts, though.
Debate must take place all year long, between now and then, not just during the last few weeks before the elections take place, so civil society, the private sector and the international community must work not only with the Government but also with all political parties on building strong and practical political platforms that offer a range of political options the people of Myanmar can chose from.
I’m not sure it is true that ┬л the views of different parties on many issues are already known ┬╗, or rather, this is only true to the extent that these issues have been publicly discussed in the last few years, and frankly this falls short of the kind of debate that would be needed for the reforms to be meaningful and actually improve people’s lives.
Change has indeed been limited, and it’s been experienced by only a limited number of people. While personal freedoms have greatly expanded since 2011 and in many cases earlier, harsh economic realities have barely been affected by recent reforms for millions of poor farmers (when the rush for land has not meant their lives have actually become more difficult) and hundreds of thousands of workers.
On the most pressing matters, how to reform the state, the economy, education, the health-care system or the justice system, we know frighteningly little of the views of the various political parties. Even the best experts of education in Myanmar, foreigners and locals alike, cannot tell what the Government really wants to do, and no-one seems to know what any political party would want to do either, beyond vague slogans.
The same can be said of the economy, and so on and so forth. If we asked all political parties to play a game where there would be a prize for the best proposal on how to reform the state, in, say, a hundred pages, I have a strong feeling the competition would be played at a very low level. When one thinks that this is maybe the most important issue on the agenda of any Government that runs Myanmar from 2016 to 2021, this is a bit of a concern.
How long can the longyi last?
The longyi is still common in rural Bangladesh, Orissa etc, but the Burmese ones are particularly beautiful. Interested you wore one in the outback – wearing one even in Sydney in the 1970s was something you only did once!
Mabuhay from Singapore
Amazing!! Great photos! Will definitely take note of this! 🙂
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
Peter,
These are valid points but there is, in my view, a problem of structures as well as actors (Pol. Sc 101) in the Philippines. Amongst a number of systemic problems of the Filipino political system is the one round, “first past the post”, voting system for presidential and vice presidential elections. (Like watery coffee and Coca Cola another of the unfortunate vestiges of American colonialism).
Sure Duterte received a relative majority (just over 40%) – doing better, say, than Ramos who was elected with about a quarter of the votes – but not an absolute one. Indonesia (and France amongst many others) offer a better system with a two round election and a run-off between the two candidates who have received the most votes. At least the candidate elected can claim to have the support of the majority of voters and fringe candidates tend to be eliminated.
I guess in the Philippines the unique separate election of the vice president is seen as providing a safety valve. This means in practice that since 1986 the VP is often of a different political party (or political clan) than the president.
But does this system really provide a safety valve? In June 2016 Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo was elected with 35.1% of the vote just squeaking ahead of ‘Bonbong’ Marcos, the son of Ferdinand Marcos, who obtained 34.6% of the vote… Imagining a Duterte – Marcos ‘tough guy’ duo is too frightening to contemplate.
Still prior to the elections there was talk (particularly in Makatai from what I gather) of repeating the Estrada – Arroyo scenario where Joseph ‘Erap’ Estrada accused of corruption (plus stupidity, illiteracy and womanising) was impeached and replaced by his VP, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
How feasible/possible/desirable is this? Leni Robredo seems to be the exact opposite of “The Punisher” with a reputation for honesty and integrity and a basic respect for democracy. In other words, like Cory Acquino, she could e the figurehead around whom a peaceful political/judicial overthrow of Duterte could be organized.
What do fellow NM readers/contributors think of such a scenario?
Four hundred years of free fall
Wages, in real terms, were/are falling. But grain prices are/were falling even more. That knowledge must have been mild comfort to salary men of the world.
So now what? What are grain and rice farmers supposed to do: groan and moan is all they could do.
Will bombs burst Thailand’s tourism bubble?
A secretive separatist group in the southern border region has taken responsibility for last month’s bombing attacks in the south of Thailand, according to a Malaysian news agency.
In an unprecedented move, an unnamed commander in the National Revolution Front, or BRN, told BenarNews it was behind not only Tuesday’s bomb attack at a school in Pattani province, but the spree of bomb and arson attacks in seven provinces that killed four people during the Mother’s Day holiday in August.
http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2016/09/07/brn-says-behind-mothers-day-bombing-report/
Communists and contradictions in Vietnam
Thanks for this update on the career of Bui Qang Vinh: things move so fast in Vietnam that a rising star one day can be a falling star the day after. Demonstrates the appropriateness of the more sophisticated analytical grid Hien and I are proposing which posits an evolving continuum to situate Communist Party cadres. Moreover as we know from past experience retirement may, or may not, mean a loss of influence.
A shroud of violence in the Philippines
David,
Duterte is not merely anti-American (so was Jose Rizal and Ramon Macapagal for perhaps legitimate reasons), but Duterte rises to the
level of illiteracy and uncouthness one has come to expect from Donald Trump, whom I strongly suspect is offering some of his advisors to Duterte, since American law firms love to make money advising foreign leaders to act like idiots. It is one thing to parade around like a balloon (Kim Jong Un), but Duterte, in total contrast to the educated and well-spoken Aquino (slash Cojuangco clan), is a complete fool, and would make Joe Biden look proprietary (of course, Biden has never said anything truly uncouth or rude). I maintain, again, the removal of Noy Noy Aquino was a grave mistake, and this Duterte is simply Hugo Chavez (may he rot in hell) in SE Asia. On the China, side, I agree with you about Laos and Cambodia, but I think like Indonesia, the Philippines will continue to happily take Chinese money but play the nationalist card in public. Thailand and Singapore barely hide their love of China and Malaysia is in free-fall anyway.