If the Thai people would have to choose one among the ten characters, my guess is that the Shinawatra brother and sister in team would win by a landslide. Unfortunately for Thailand this is not to happen anytime soon; autocracy will prevail over democracy at least in the short term. But at the end of the road there may be a glimpse of hope for the Thai people
Alla,
You don’t know what you’re talking about. The War on Drugs was prompted by the king’s birthday address in 2002, which raised the drug problem in the very opening paragraph and went on from there.
And here’s what he said one year later, in response to the three-month anti-drug campaign and the outcry against it, with full context. This speech was spun as a criticism against Thaksin, but the king in fact defended the campaign, which after all was his idea. If he took a swipe at anyone, it was the “farangs.” Yes, he used the word in the context of the Opium Wars (which he also highlighted in the previous speech).
After that speech, a police investigation put the death toll in the low 1000s, attributed to gangland killings. Believe it or not, the 2000+ number bandied about actually counts *all* homicides in those three months, not all of which can possibly be drug-related. It’s mind-boggling that the number still persists to this day, but that’s a topic for another day.
Anyway, your mistaken belief shows how much King Bhumibol has benefited from myths, misinformation, and a cultish compulsion to cast him in the best of light.
Well balanced position and a strong proactive lead by ASEAN’s most powerful nation that may eventually translate to a more cohesive and unison position of Asean nations to strengthen the association which is always in check by China to suppress Asean’s independent political growth and ensure China’s influence and interests in the region.
‘Bhumibol publicly backed the ‘war on drugs’, in which over 2,500 people were extra-judicially killed”
Lee, the link on ‘publicly backed’ has nothing relevant to the claim here. Publicly, in at least 2 birthday addresses, Bhumibol criticized Thaksin and called for independent investigations.
Yes indeed this is a refreshing article, Christine Gray (this time I got the spelling correct) like all of your previous posts which I have read with great relish. It shows again the need (which we discuss in theory, but do not apply sufficiently in practice) for inter-disciplinary dialogue between anthropologists, sociologists, historians, political scientists, economists, political economists, legal scholars etc.
As a political scientist (some would argue an oxymoron) I think part of the reason for this is the fear of being labelled ‘Orientalists’, or worse, by our subaltern post-colonial studies – subaltern studies colleagues. I suspect that we have unconsciously interiorized a kind of self-censorship not dissimilar to that engendered by the lese majesté laws and one which tend to justify by reference to the parameters of our ‘home’ discipline .
Most of the comments above addressed two well-known writers who focused on the Thai monarchy. Sometimes such works are cited for having a Western slant that blindsides objective reporting. The point that seems to linger here is that Marshall dwelled on a particular aspect of succession that was colored by over-imaginative what-if scenarios. Can’t disagree with this given so far what has and has not taken place as well as my personal views all along that the Thais will follow the path already set.
Handley, a seeker has in my view merely confirmed some of the truisms in Thainess society – that some things are inevitable. Knowing which ones may involve not only being Thai but being one of the decision makers, the latter who do not always get their personal ways but themselves have to compromise. Decorum, tradition, maintenance of the Thainess icons and imagery are paramount. It is not to preserve stability for anything other than to keep the boat from being rocked.
A lot depends on how they arrange royal kathin ceremonies… the ritual order will manifest itself. The order of precedence in the funerary rituals is important as well. Another legacy is that there are lots of women, few sons except the exiled sons.
I’ve looked for every possible good in the CP, and everyone hopes that this will be a conversion experience, but the Thai people have long been capable of ruling themselves through democratic process. With the press virtually shut down and in thrall to the military, how would anyone know except through gossip and rumor? If he took his duty seriously, the CP would reassure “his people” or the country of a positive vision moving forward, and we just don’t see that. Please tell me there’s some light. Oh, the press is paralyzed. Not a good sign. One thing’s for sure: LM laws are going to go haywire.
The struggle between the Wongtheyan military faction versus the Burapha Tigers faction is now full on, eg. re. shifting control of KhaoSod and Prachatai media outlets. Ditto the attempt last week to financially ruin nationmultimedia.
Rama IX will rule on as an immortal deity.
Rama X will soon be consumed by his own excesses, then the military/elite will get to work on the kid.
It will comes to pass.
Good that you love bull shit Mark, what about Red Bull? Some of us will be Ok, I am well up country drinking beer, no one looking and I think we may see the best spectacle since Cassius Clay beat Sonny Liston, I for one will stay around.
Nothing to watch here. Only one thing to do (if you’re Not Thai), get your ass out of this shit place, cause it will blow up within a whack of a cat’s tail.
I take your point Chris. From the way he writes about it, it seems unlikely that Andrew has ever handled this type of firearm in an observant way and now that he is back in Edinburgh, he is unlikely to be in a position to complete his research on this aspect. The models of Colt .45s that would have been around at that time would have been almost exclusively from US war time military stock which was mass produced from buckets of parts by semi-skilled workers, not carefully matched and tightly fitted together by master gunsmiths to achieve maximum accuracy. There were designed to fit together loosely and fire easily without break-in period in a stressful combat situation where only average accuracy was required but with minimal malfunctions. The grip safeties on the backstraps of these, that Andrew referred to, are usually quite loose and depressed easily when the shooter grips them without any conscious thought, so that they can be used quickly in combat. Also this design is stilI favored by target shooters today because they have a relatively light trigger pull of around 4lbs without modification and are single action which means there is only one pressure on the triggers with a minimal take up before it breaks. I am certainly not trying to prove a point about the case at all and have no view on it whatsoever. I am just pointing out that Andrew has made an assertion here based on complete ignorance without proper research which makes me suspicious that he might be in the habit of jumping to other conclusions without a reasonable basis. Indeed he seems to be making a number of speculative assertions at the moment without distinguishing between verifiable fact and his own theories.
It looks as if someone wants to help the prophecy fulfilled
We will see if the CP in the next days in the public appears – enough occasions there for it. For years the CP has been representing his father in public – and now he is not ready to take over the crown?
He often had been so short with money -and now –
He does not want to have power over the CPB?
-like Christine say : No one but his son represents King Bhumibol on the barge Suphannahongsa
-The procession of royal barks will soon be – then we will see – or not see the CP
This and the articles by Lee Jones, Llewellyn Mc Cann and, yes, the gossipy yet thoughtful analyses by Christine Grey need to be read together for a more holistic view. Lee Jones appropriately reminds us how the institution of the monarchy had been discredited in the 1920s and 1030s, for after Mongkut and Chulalongkorn – Siam had a series of much less respected kings.
After Bhumibol ascended to the throne, during the long years of military rule and, according to some, following advice from the CIA a cult of Bhumibol was created. As one of my Thai friend’s once flippantly observed: Thais are ‘Bhumibolists’ not monarchists per se. The next year or so will test the veracity of this observation.
Reverence, wether real of fabricated for King Bhumibol (or probably a combination of the two) came into being I suggest for two reasons. Like the rehabilitation of the English monarchy under Queen Victoria, it relied on three elements: a reference to tradition and a glorious past, an effective public relations machinery relying on modern media and third was accompanied by a trope of increasing wealth (and glory).
Two further thoughts. In analyzing the relative political autonomy of the Royal Family a good starting point is Duncan McCargo’s seminal 2005 article on the “network monarchy’ published in “The Pacific Review””. Written at the height of Thaksin Shinawatra’s Prime Ministership it convincingly argues for an autonomous power base for the Royal Family, albeit one vectored through the Privy Council and in a degree of symbiosis with the Sino-Thai business elite and the Army. The Crown Property Bureau valued at between US$35 billion and US$53 billion provides, in theory at least, a formidable basis for the exercise of power, particularly as its activities are largely opaque.
Finally, what I find lacking in many recent analyses are considerations of two areas that require attention. The first of these is the Royal Family itself. Is (or rather was given her diminished health) Queen Sirikit herself passive or also an actor in her right? And what of the ostensibly apolitical Princess Sirindhorn?
Secondly, is the Military as monolithic as often portrayed? Not only in the past have we seen divisions between the Air Force and the Navy, the poor cousin of the Thai Armed Forces, compared to the Army, but in the Army itself there are regimental loyalties and networks linked to the year of promotion from the Thai Military Academy. Scholarship in the 70s and ’80s addressed these questions but with the emergence of the new economic/political elites, the “Kremlinogist” type observation of the military and the Royal Family has fallen into abeyance.
In these research lacuna can be seen the indirect effect of the lese majesté laws that, understandably, have discouraged the younger generation of scholars in Thailand and outside from venturing into very risky areas of enquiry.
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Thailand’s top ten after Bhumibol
If the Thai people would have to choose one among the ten characters, my guess is that the Shinawatra brother and sister in team would win by a landslide. Unfortunately for Thailand this is not to happen anytime soon; autocracy will prevail over democracy at least in the short term. But at the end of the road there may be a glimpse of hope for the Thai people
The myth of King Bhumibol
Alla,
You don’t know what you’re talking about. The War on Drugs was prompted by the king’s birthday address in 2002, which raised the drug problem in the very opening paragraph and went on from there.
http://kanchanapisek.or.th/speeches/2002/1204.th.html
ขอขอบใจท่านทั้งหลายที่ได้มาในโอกาสวันนี้ ซึ่งเป็นวันก่อนวันเกิด และขอขอบใจนายกฯ ที่ได้อวยพรในนามของท่านที่อยู่ในศาลานี้ และทั้งข้างนอก รวมทั้งคนที่อยู่นอกวังอยู่หนึ่ง นอกกรุง ให้พร ซึ่งก็เป็นสิ่งที่มีพลังเพราะว่า คนจำนวนมากมาให้พรก็น่าจะเป็นผลดี ก็ต้องขอบใจที่ได้กล่าวถึงกิจการที่ได้ทำมาตลอด มีสิ่งหนึ่งที่ท่านยังไม่ได้กล่าวถึงและก็เป็นสิ่งที่เป็นความเดือดร้อนของชาติบ้านเมือง มาเป็นเวลานานประมาณ ๕๐ ปี ซึ่งเป็นเรื่องของยาเสพติด ซึ่งยาเสพติดนั้นมีมาก่อนเป็นเวลานาน แต่เป็นยาเสพติดที่ไม่รุนแรงมากนัก คือ ที่เขาสู้กันเรื่องฝิ่น
And here’s what he said one year later, in response to the three-month anti-drug campaign and the outcry against it, with full context. This speech was spun as a criticism against Thaksin, but the king in fact defended the campaign, which after all was his idea. If he took a swipe at anyone, it was the “farangs.” Yes, he used the word in the context of the Opium Wars (which he also highlighted in the previous speech).
http://kanchanapisek.or.th/speeches/2003/1204.th.html
ไอ้การชัยชนะของการปราบไอ้ยาเสพติดนี่ ดีที่ปราบ แล้วก็ที่เขาตำหนิบอกว่า เอ้ย คนตาย ตั้ง ๒,๕๐๐ คน อะไรนั่น เรื่องเล็ก ๒,๕๐๐ คน ถ้านายกฯ ไม่ได้ทำ นายกฯ ไม่ได้ทำ ทุกปี ๆ จดไว้นะ มีมากกว่า ๒,๕๐๐ คนที่ตาย ที่ตายทั้งคนที่เสพติด แล้วก็ขึ้นไป ฆ่าคน หรือทำอะไร เผาอะไรต่าง ๆ รวมทั้งเจ้าหน้าที่ที่ต้องไปปราบปกติ ก็ตายมากเหมือนกัน แต่ไม่พูดเท่านั้นเอง ไม่ไปนับ แต่นี้เขาก็นับไปชี้ ชี้ ชี้นับ พวกที่ค้า พวกที่ทำ ก็ตายเยอะเหมือนกัน ก่อนนี้ แต่ไม่พูดถึง เชื่อว่าพอๆ กับที่ได้จดว่า มีผู้ที่ตายในการสงครามต่อสู้ยาเสพติด ที่ทราบว่าคนตาย เพราะยาเสพติดนี่ มากมาย
เพราะว่า สังเกตดูตั้งปีที่แล้ว บอกว่า ๔๐ กว่าปี ต้อง ๔๐ กว่าปีแน่ เพราะว่าตอนนั้นอยู่ที่พระที่นั่งอัมพรฯ ก่อน ก่อนลูกองค์นี้ อย่างน้อยลูกเกิด คนเล็กนะยังไม่เกิด ลูกคนเล็กเกิดที่พระที่นั่งอัมพรฯ แล้ว เราถึงย้ายมาที่ตำหนักสวนจิตรฯ นี่ มียาเสพติดก่อนเขา วิธีที่จะทำ ปีที่แล้วมาเล่าให้ฟัง แต่ว่าอาจจะไม่ละเอียดพอ ไม่เข้าใจ ปีที่แล้วอธิบายว่า ทำไมนึกถึงเป็นสงคราม ไอ้คำว่า สงครามเอามาจากปากคนนี้ ว่าเป็นสงคราม เพราะว่า สงคราม ๒ อย่าง สงครามการเมือง และสงครามเศรษฐกิจ สงครามการเมืองเขาใช้ยาเสพติดนี้มาก สำหรับมาบ่อนทำลายประชากรไทย รวมทั้งประชากรของประเทศ
เขาก็ได้เป็นผลพลอยได้เท่านั้นเอง ที่เขาได้เงิน แต่ที่ได้คือ ทำลาย ทำลายประชากรให้เป็นคนติดยา เป็นคนที่เขาว่า ขี้ยา คนขี้ยาคิดอะไรไม่ออก บางคนนึกว่าใช้ยานี่ทำให้แข็งแรง ทำให้มีความคิดดี แต่แท้จริงไม่ คนที่กินนั่นนะ เสพยา ตอนนั้นเป็นเฮโรอีนนะ เขาใส่ในน้ำหวาน ใส่ในกาแฟ ใส่ในน้ำแล้วก็หลอกทั้งเด็ก ทั้งผู้ใหญ่ เมืองจีนเขาทำ แล้วก็ไม่ใช่คนจีนทำ เป็นฝรั่งทำ ที่นี่มีฝรั่งหรือเปล่า เดี๋ยวเขาโกรธเอา แต่ว่าเป็นความจริงว่า ฝรั่งเป็นคนใช้ยาเสพติด ทำลายเมืองจีน แต่ไม่สำเร็จ จนกระทั่งมีสงคราม เขาก็มีสงครามเหมือนกัน แต่ตายมากกว่า ๒,๕๐๐ คน
แล้วที่บอก ๒,๕๐๐ คน นี่ก็ไม่เชื่อ มีมากกว่า ที่เขาตายแต่เราไม่รู้ แล้วก็พวกที่ทางเจ้าหน้าที่ได้สังหาร ไม่ใช่ ๒,๕๐๐ นี่เขาสังหารกันเอง แล้วนี่เราจะรับผิดชอบได้อย่างไร เขาด่าว่า นายกฯ ทำสงคราม ทำให้คนตาย ๒,๕๐๐ คน ความจริงไม่ใช่อย่างนั้น ๒,๕๐๐ คน มันหมดทั้งหมด เขานับแต่ว่า พวกที่ตายเป็นส่วนใหญ่ เป็นพวกที่เขาฆ่ากันเอง พวกที่ค้า พวกที่ผลิต เขาฆ่ากันเอง จำนวนมาก ที่ทางราชการจะรับผิดชอบ ก็อาจจะมีจำนวนหนึ่ง ก็ลองถามทางผู้บัญชาการตำรวจแห่งชาติ ไปแยก จำแนกเป็นเท่าไร ก็เชื่อว่าใน ๒,๕๐๐ นี่ มากที่เขาฆ่ากันเอง แล้วก็ความผิดของเขา มาโยนความผิดให้ท่านซูเปอร์นายกฯ
After that speech, a police investigation put the death toll in the low 1000s, attributed to gangland killings. Believe it or not, the 2000+ number bandied about actually counts *all* homicides in those three months, not all of which can possibly be drug-related. It’s mind-boggling that the number still persists to this day, but that’s a topic for another day.
Anyway, your mistaken belief shows how much King Bhumibol has benefited from myths, misinformation, and a cultish compulsion to cast him in the best of light.
Thailand’s top ten after Bhumibol
Don’t forget Uncle Tom Cobley
A statement on the South China Sea ruling
Well balanced position and a strong proactive lead by ASEAN’s most powerful nation that may eventually translate to a more cohesive and unison position of Asean nations to strengthen the association which is always in check by China to suppress Asean’s independent political growth and ensure China’s influence and interests in the region.
The myth of King Bhumibol
‘Bhumibol publicly backed the ‘war on drugs’, in which over 2,500 people were extra-judicially killed”
Lee, the link on ‘publicly backed’ has nothing relevant to the claim here. Publicly, in at least 2 birthday addresses, Bhumibol criticized Thaksin and called for independent investigations.
Speaking of the succession
Yes indeed this is a refreshing article, Christine Gray (this time I got the spelling correct) like all of your previous posts which I have read with great relish. It shows again the need (which we discuss in theory, but do not apply sufficiently in practice) for inter-disciplinary dialogue between anthropologists, sociologists, historians, political scientists, economists, political economists, legal scholars etc.
As a political scientist (some would argue an oxymoron) I think part of the reason for this is the fear of being labelled ‘Orientalists’, or worse, by our subaltern post-colonial studies – subaltern studies colleagues. I suspect that we have unconsciously interiorized a kind of self-censorship not dissimilar to that engendered by the lese majesté laws and one which tend to justify by reference to the parameters of our ‘home’ discipline .
Speaking of the succession
Thank you for your article. It is so refreshing to find someone willing to speak frankly.
The king still never smiles
Most of the comments above addressed two well-known writers who focused on the Thai monarchy. Sometimes such works are cited for having a Western slant that blindsides objective reporting. The point that seems to linger here is that Marshall dwelled on a particular aspect of succession that was colored by over-imaginative what-if scenarios. Can’t disagree with this given so far what has and has not taken place as well as my personal views all along that the Thais will follow the path already set.
Handley, a seeker has in my view merely confirmed some of the truisms in Thainess society – that some things are inevitable. Knowing which ones may involve not only being Thai but being one of the decision makers, the latter who do not always get their personal ways but themselves have to compromise. Decorum, tradition, maintenance of the Thainess icons and imagery are paramount. It is not to preserve stability for anything other than to keep the boat from being rocked.
A crown prince and German affairs
Interesting debate between Dr. Gray and Dr. Shane Tarr. 😀
Speaking of the succession
A lot depends on how they arrange royal kathin ceremonies… the ritual order will manifest itself. The order of precedence in the funerary rituals is important as well. Another legacy is that there are lots of women, few sons except the exiled sons.
I’ve looked for every possible good in the CP, and everyone hopes that this will be a conversion experience, but the Thai people have long been capable of ruling themselves through democratic process. With the press virtually shut down and in thrall to the military, how would anyone know except through gossip and rumor? If he took his duty seriously, the CP would reassure “his people” or the country of a positive vision moving forward, and we just don’t see that. Please tell me there’s some light. Oh, the press is paralyzed. Not a good sign. One thing’s for sure: LM laws are going to go haywire.
Thailand’s succession: rolling coverage
The struggle between the Wongtheyan military faction versus the Burapha Tigers faction is now full on, eg. re. shifting control of KhaoSod and Prachatai media outlets. Ditto the attempt last week to financially ruin nationmultimedia.
Speaking of the succession
Scuttle but suggests that the CP will decline the appointment and thus the role will pass to his son
Speaking of the succession
Lots going on , Bkk Post and Khoasod both had articles naming Prem as Regent .
Both have now removed the articles
Speaking of the succession
Rama IX will rule on as an immortal deity.
Rama X will soon be consumed by his own excesses, then the military/elite will get to work on the kid.
It will comes to pass.
What now?
Good that you love bull shit Mark, what about Red Bull? Some of us will be Ok, I am well up country drinking beer, no one looking and I think we may see the best spectacle since Cassius Clay beat Sonny Liston, I for one will stay around.
The myth of King Bhumibol
Giles Ji Ungpakorn
https://uglytruththailand.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/king-pumipon-of-thailand/
What now?
Boy do I love this bullshit experts.
Nothing to watch here. Only one thing to do (if you’re Not Thai), get your ass out of this shit place, cause it will blow up within a whack of a cat’s tail.
The King is (nearly) dead: long live the King?
I take your point Chris. From the way he writes about it, it seems unlikely that Andrew has ever handled this type of firearm in an observant way and now that he is back in Edinburgh, he is unlikely to be in a position to complete his research on this aspect. The models of Colt .45s that would have been around at that time would have been almost exclusively from US war time military stock which was mass produced from buckets of parts by semi-skilled workers, not carefully matched and tightly fitted together by master gunsmiths to achieve maximum accuracy. There were designed to fit together loosely and fire easily without break-in period in a stressful combat situation where only average accuracy was required but with minimal malfunctions. The grip safeties on the backstraps of these, that Andrew referred to, are usually quite loose and depressed easily when the shooter grips them without any conscious thought, so that they can be used quickly in combat. Also this design is stilI favored by target shooters today because they have a relatively light trigger pull of around 4lbs without modification and are single action which means there is only one pressure on the triggers with a minimal take up before it breaks. I am certainly not trying to prove a point about the case at all and have no view on it whatsoever. I am just pointing out that Andrew has made an assertion here based on complete ignorance without proper research which makes me suspicious that he might be in the habit of jumping to other conclusions without a reasonable basis. Indeed he seems to be making a number of speculative assertions at the moment without distinguishing between verifiable fact and his own theories.
Speaking of the succession
It looks as if someone wants to help the prophecy fulfilled
We will see if the CP in the next days in the public appears – enough occasions there for it. For years the CP has been representing his father in public – and now he is not ready to take over the crown?
He often had been so short with money -and now –
He does not want to have power over the CPB?
-like Christine say : No one but his son represents King Bhumibol on the barge Suphannahongsa
-The procession of royal barks will soon be – then we will see – or not see the CP
What is King Bhumibol’s legacy?
This and the articles by Lee Jones, Llewellyn Mc Cann and, yes, the gossipy yet thoughtful analyses by Christine Grey need to be read together for a more holistic view. Lee Jones appropriately reminds us how the institution of the monarchy had been discredited in the 1920s and 1030s, for after Mongkut and Chulalongkorn – Siam had a series of much less respected kings.
After Bhumibol ascended to the throne, during the long years of military rule and, according to some, following advice from the CIA a cult of Bhumibol was created. As one of my Thai friend’s once flippantly observed: Thais are ‘Bhumibolists’ not monarchists per se. The next year or so will test the veracity of this observation.
Reverence, wether real of fabricated for King Bhumibol (or probably a combination of the two) came into being I suggest for two reasons. Like the rehabilitation of the English monarchy under Queen Victoria, it relied on three elements: a reference to tradition and a glorious past, an effective public relations machinery relying on modern media and third was accompanied by a trope of increasing wealth (and glory).
Two further thoughts. In analyzing the relative political autonomy of the Royal Family a good starting point is Duncan McCargo’s seminal 2005 article on the “network monarchy’ published in “The Pacific Review””. Written at the height of Thaksin Shinawatra’s Prime Ministership it convincingly argues for an autonomous power base for the Royal Family, albeit one vectored through the Privy Council and in a degree of symbiosis with the Sino-Thai business elite and the Army. The Crown Property Bureau valued at between US$35 billion and US$53 billion provides, in theory at least, a formidable basis for the exercise of power, particularly as its activities are largely opaque.
Finally, what I find lacking in many recent analyses are considerations of two areas that require attention. The first of these is the Royal Family itself. Is (or rather was given her diminished health) Queen Sirikit herself passive or also an actor in her right? And what of the ostensibly apolitical Princess Sirindhorn?
Secondly, is the Military as monolithic as often portrayed? Not only in the past have we seen divisions between the Air Force and the Navy, the poor cousin of the Thai Armed Forces, compared to the Army, but in the Army itself there are regimental loyalties and networks linked to the year of promotion from the Thai Military Academy. Scholarship in the 70s and ’80s addressed these questions but with the emergence of the new economic/political elites, the “Kremlinogist” type observation of the military and the Royal Family has fallen into abeyance.
In these research lacuna can be seen the indirect effect of the lese majesté laws that, understandably, have discouraged the younger generation of scholars in Thailand and outside from venturing into very risky areas of enquiry.