No matter who prevails, and how dramatic the plays and counter plays, very little is likely to change here for the average Thai, for generations, judging from what I’ve witnessed in as little as less than a week!
Anything other than the Royal status quo is wildly wishful thinking, and foreign wishful thinking at that. Any opposition, without explicit Royal patronage, is effectively exiled either literally, or within its own borders.
Short of a massive regional upheaval, the crown itself dismantling the junta, or a highly unlikely counter-coup, I see the junta in power for generations, not just decades.
If they’re smart they’ll find a way to allow just enough freedom for limited and largely toothless verbal dissent. But if anything, in the last tumultuous week, they’ve railed against the foreign media in general for allegedly underreporting mourners numbers; err ok! And want ISPs to somehow stamp out any and all internet traffic the ‘Tigers’ find objectionable.
Get ready for a lifetime of Myanmar 2.0
If you live in Thailand, you should be cautious about commenting on the internet regardless of whether or not your name is published. The government has other ways to track you down.
Interesting anecdote Chris. My own local Thai friends hail from everywhere but Bangkok. While some of them have never met each other, none is royalist!
All are in shock and admit to the loss, as ones cultural tendrils do reach deep.
I have no doubt that during the extended mourning, “tanks-r-us” will further alienate and exasperate all but themselves, and maybe even some ultras?
I do think the author is too hopeful I doubt we’ll see much radicalism, at least initially.
The junta in large part seem to be both clumsy, very fearful, and out of their depth right now. It’s been less than a week and already the economic reality for hundreds of thousands shut out of work during the initial mourning, is causing concern.
Then there are bewildering attacks on foreign media for ‘under-reporting’ mourners numbers, is that outburst consistent with a confident regime or even a rational and appropriate response?EVERY pronouncement they make demonstrates a total lack of media sophistication, telegraphs their deepest fears to anyone who can read between the very obvious lines, and draws attention to their blunders, omissions, and weaknesses. For the guys who hold ultimate power, the don’t prone t much outward confidenceAside from the same old enmity flaring up and simmering on, giving them a crap but enforceable excuse to delay elections indefinitely;
I’m doubtful Thailand will otherwise change much soon, particularly from on high, and if it does, then ironically, it will be those that resist it most, who will likely spur it on with their hamfisted insistence on retarding the modernity of the nation at all costs but their own.
Professor Chambers describes the situation very well.
In summary the Royal Thai Army is the only political party in Thailand allowed to be armed. There is no chance that the RTA will ever become disarmed. The level playing field ( all other political parties are not armed) concept does not appeal to the RTA, therefore elections are unnecessary when only one political party has weapons
Very good analysis of who is who in the Thai Military Establishment and what this means for Thailand in the short-term. I suppose one question that Paul might ask without fear of 112 being slapped on him is, how long does he think “guided democracy” will last in Thailand or does he think this will be an enduring aspect of the structure and culture of Thai politics?
As a “guest” albeit a high-paying guest of The Realm it would be improper of me to comment one way or the other. However, one should always read such articles with an open mind and then go back and honor one’s hosts.
Now that the Thai demi-god has passed, what will transpire in Thailand, as the day of reckoning has arrived. It’s obvious that with the lame excuse given for the delay, the succession issue is still being played out behind the scenes at the present time.
I also believe it will become much clearer in the months ahead, as a “thai” commented elsewhere on this site and I quote, “that the succession is being carefully crafted to allow the CPB to be sufficiently “milked” in the next year, to allow for abdication. It will certainly “play out behind gold-paneled doors” as you so eloquently state.”
I also believe that even though most people believed that the succession issue had been settled, more surprises awaits us. Though he is 96 yrs old, and living on borrowed time, Pa Prem, who is now the regent, albeit temporarily, will do whatever he can, to thwart the CP. The CP and Prayuth, will be forced into making a deal and accepting the conditions Prem insists upon. Unless they get rid of Prem from the scene, as they are very capable of doing. It will be surprising to all if Prem plays along and succumbs to their wishes. He will outsmart them and I think now has the upper hand, despite appearances to the contrary.
My thinking is that the CP has absolutely no interest in the title, but has his sights set on the enormous wealth (by some estimates at over 50 billion dollars) amassed by the CPB and will do whatever it takes to get his hands on. It has become known that he has already replaced Chirayu, who used to manage it, and replaced him with one of his own had picked person, not to mention the newly appointed chamberlains in the palace.
I’m hoping against all hope that a deal will be reached and that the CP moves permanently to his newly purchased luxury villa outside of Munich and brings this sad saga in Thailand’s history to a close. On the other hand, I am also realistic and don’t think it will end well.
Please distinguish between the late king as person, the personality cult and the use of him as a tool for legitimation of the elite. Don’t follow the common, highly idelogical argument of royalists regarding the reign of Rama IX, but look at it from an analytical perspective. The shortcommings of democracy can hardly be blamed on the late king. There are quite a few others to be blamed. As the least, the periode where Thailand was a “a country (once) known for its blossoming democracy and vibrant society”, was within the reign of Rama IX.
On 16 October, Rienthong Nanna, chairman of the ultra-royalist vigilante group Rubbish Collection Organisation (RCO), posted on his Facebook account the address of Wanna, a Thai living in Paris. Rienthong alleged that Wanna is sheltering Saran Chuichai, also known as Aum Neko, a lèse-majesté suspect who is currently in exile in France.
Anyone that opposes organized religion is going to get their character torn to pieces by said religions. It is all well and good to go about chanting WWJD ~ well I can tell you one thing ~ vindictive character assassination is NOT what Jesus would do. Shame on these people for posing as someone who is just there to help and then stealing the children of the people they are there to help. How condescending of them! The Akha people are very thoughtful and loving parents, if one would choose to help the children, provide the means for the parents to do so and let the children remain in their homes. It sickens me that these ‘missionaries’ steal these beautiful children, not only from the Akha people but from indigenous people all over the world. They strip them of their cultural identity, and parade them about in the USA like so many prized pets. Little else will raise a “christian” in the esteem of their congregation as traveling to a far off land and coming back with an “exotic” child to show off. Disgusting self serving narrow minded pretentious contentious morons that they are they actually tell themselves and each other that they are helping the children. If they really want to help the children, rescue the whole family from poverty and let them stay together.
Erick I will add my own impressions. I was at the hospital reporting live for the BBC when we had official confirmation that the king had died. It was very strange because for 2-3 minutes the crowd around me did not realise he had gone. They were still shouting ‘long live the king’ while I was reporting his death. Then I heard the cries of grief as people got the news on their smart phones – connectivity was poor because of the numbers there. Those cries rippled through the crowd, and people were genuinely distraught. But it was not what I would call hysteria. They were very upset and tearful, but not wailing.
At my spot on Friday the heat was also a problem. The cops enforced a no umbrella rule for more than hour before the procession arrived, and people were fainting all around us. Large numbers of people down one side of the palace, where the motorcade would not pass, were at the last minute ushered into our already overcrowded spot, and for a moment I thought we would have a stampede. But good Thai manners saved the day, even though the cops were trying to keep us from advancing a little closer to the gate where the procession would enter the palace. There was a light moment when Anand Panyarachun arrived late, in full regalia, and had to be helped to step through the sitting crowd to reach the entrance. He got a hearty round of applause and seemed to enjoy the moment. We were receiving updates from people following the procession, so could reassure the crowd nearest us over how far away it was. We also got advance info the the king’s body was travelling in an unassuming van with blue stripes. Sat down, with cameramen and tripods at the front, the crowd could not actually see when the procession arrived and dived inside the palace gate. But they did see the cameramen become alert and start filming. I had my head hunched right down behind my cameraman to try to avoid blocking the view behind me. The crowd went noticeably silent, started quietly sobbing, and then, starting at the back, began singing the king’s anthem Sansoen Phra Barami, struggling through their tears. It was a brief but very powerful moment. And just as suddenly it was over, they were up and chatting to each other, and making their way home.
I’m not sure that McCoy came from the CIA, although he certainly got interesting access without going through the NRC (National Research Council) for permission.
Can you imagine that dialogue?
OTOH, most farang in thailand at the time were gossiped about as CIA. Since the CIA backed a lot of the narcotics trade in the 1950s, I’m not sure it was in their interest to expose that involvement. I was considered to be pro-royalist because I studied royals. Dah. My position was always, Let the critics step up and make some contributions of their own. Now’s the time to destroy some of the old myths put out by the monarchy and state which shackled academic research.
If not now, when?
This is fascinating, numbers are always a problem. I would still argue that the police can fudge numbers, and when they investigated, as you say Tom, they put the over 1,000 down to gangland murders– not extra-judicial? Can the police investigate themselves? Yes Tom, it does deserve an article, after reading Bkk Pundit one has to be convinced, but it’s not really a full article. But can we deny the atmosphere of fear among drug users or suspects at the time, which, of course, can just be a response to the ‘drug war’, and stories of atrocities – true or not, or to the media. I am sure HRW reported on the climate of fear, this, I think needs to be juxtaposed with what the actual situation was if an article was to be written.
HRW (Sunai Phasuk), in reporting on the prosecution of police for (non-drug related) extra-judicial killings in Kalasin in 2004 says that Thaksin’s announcements to the police to ‘show them no mercy’, “further entrenched the impunity for police brutality that has plagued Thailand for decades” (Opinion Bkk Post 24/8/2012).
Here is some speculative Thai Kremlinology that will be put to the test fairly soon:-
The struggle between the King’s and the Queen’s courtiers, originating long ago from their failed marriage, took a decisive turn when Thursday night’s meeting of the stacked National Legislative Assembly failed in its purpose of declaring Vajiralongkorn king. Instead of Prayut’s plan going ahead, the old fox Prem has become regent. The secret revolution is well under way. Prayut and the Prince are dead ducks. It will be only a short time before the Prince is back in Bavaria permanently. Prayut will probably need to be put on trial and condemned for something or other. The apparent ascendancy of Sirikit’s courtiers over the last few years was an illusion. Prem allowed her fascist clique to make the running, and bear the infamy of the second coup and the associated repression. Now, he and the serious, hard-working operators are back to save Thailand from tyranny, present Princess Angel as Queen to an adoring public, and win back the red-shirts from Thaksin with serious money. If that doesn’t happen, how can the glittering, rotten hierarchy be kept alive for another generation?
Just like in Soviet era, it’s called Cult of Personality, they’re brainwashed since birth and was forced by retard minority to love Lenin. Once Soviet collapse, you see how much people hate him. LOL
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Private: Managing the death of King Bhumibol
No matter who prevails, and how dramatic the plays and counter plays, very little is likely to change here for the average Thai, for generations, judging from what I’ve witnessed in as little as less than a week!
Anything other than the Royal status quo is wildly wishful thinking, and foreign wishful thinking at that. Any opposition, without explicit Royal patronage, is effectively exiled either literally, or within its own borders.
Guardian of the kingdom
Short of a massive regional upheaval, the crown itself dismantling the junta, or a highly unlikely counter-coup, I see the junta in power for generations, not just decades.
If they’re smart they’ll find a way to allow just enough freedom for limited and largely toothless verbal dissent. But if anything, in the last tumultuous week, they’ve railed against the foreign media in general for allegedly underreporting mourners numbers; err ok! And want ISPs to somehow stamp out any and all internet traffic the ‘Tigers’ find objectionable.
Get ready for a lifetime of Myanmar 2.0
Private: Managing the death of King Bhumibol
If you live in Thailand, you should be cautious about commenting on the internet regardless of whether or not your name is published. The government has other ways to track you down.
What now?
Interesting anecdote Chris. My own local Thai friends hail from everywhere but Bangkok. While some of them have never met each other, none is royalist!
All are in shock and admit to the loss, as ones cultural tendrils do reach deep.
I have no doubt that during the extended mourning, “tanks-r-us” will further alienate and exasperate all but themselves, and maybe even some ultras?
I do think the author is too hopeful I doubt we’ll see much radicalism, at least initially.
The junta in large part seem to be both clumsy, very fearful, and out of their depth right now. It’s been less than a week and already the economic reality for hundreds of thousands shut out of work during the initial mourning, is causing concern.
Then there are bewildering attacks on foreign media for ‘under-reporting’ mourners numbers, is that outburst consistent with a confident regime or even a rational and appropriate response?EVERY pronouncement they make demonstrates a total lack of media sophistication, telegraphs their deepest fears to anyone who can read between the very obvious lines, and draws attention to their blunders, omissions, and weaknesses. For the guys who hold ultimate power, the don’t prone t much outward confidenceAside from the same old enmity flaring up and simmering on, giving them a crap but enforceable excuse to delay elections indefinitely;
I’m doubtful Thailand will otherwise change much soon, particularly from on high, and if it does, then ironically, it will be those that resist it most, who will likely spur it on with their hamfisted insistence on retarding the modernity of the nation at all costs but their own.
Guardian of the kingdom
Professor Chambers describes the situation very well.
In summary the Royal Thai Army is the only political party in Thailand allowed to be armed. There is no chance that the RTA will ever become disarmed. The level playing field ( all other political parties are not armed) concept does not appeal to the RTA, therefore elections are unnecessary when only one political party has weapons
The king still never smiles
Where was the replacement of Chirayu as head of CPB announced? I didn’t see that at the time that he became head of the Royal Household Bureau. He is still listed as head at the CPB website: http://www.crownproperty.or.th/%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B5%E0%B9%88%E0%B8%A2%E0%B8%A7%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%AA%E0%B8%B3%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%87%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%99%E0%B8%AF-%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%99%E0%B9%89%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%AB%E0%B8%A5%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%81/%E0%B8%84%E0%B8%93%E0%B8%B0%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%A1%E0%B8%81%E0%B8%B2%E0%B8%A3
Guardian of the kingdom
Very good analysis of who is who in the Thai Military Establishment and what this means for Thailand in the short-term. I suppose one question that Paul might ask without fear of 112 being slapped on him is, how long does he think “guided democracy” will last in Thailand or does he think this will be an enduring aspect of the structure and culture of Thai politics?
Politics of the interregnum
As a “guest” albeit a high-paying guest of The Realm it would be improper of me to comment one way or the other. However, one should always read such articles with an open mind and then go back and honor one’s hosts.
The king still never smiles
Now that the Thai demi-god has passed, what will transpire in Thailand, as the day of reckoning has arrived. It’s obvious that with the lame excuse given for the delay, the succession issue is still being played out behind the scenes at the present time.
I also believe it will become much clearer in the months ahead, as a “thai” commented elsewhere on this site and I quote, “that the succession is being carefully crafted to allow the CPB to be sufficiently “milked” in the next year, to allow for abdication. It will certainly “play out behind gold-paneled doors” as you so eloquently state.”
I also believe that even though most people believed that the succession issue had been settled, more surprises awaits us. Though he is 96 yrs old, and living on borrowed time, Pa Prem, who is now the regent, albeit temporarily, will do whatever he can, to thwart the CP. The CP and Prayuth, will be forced into making a deal and accepting the conditions Prem insists upon. Unless they get rid of Prem from the scene, as they are very capable of doing. It will be surprising to all if Prem plays along and succumbs to their wishes. He will outsmart them and I think now has the upper hand, despite appearances to the contrary.
My thinking is that the CP has absolutely no interest in the title, but has his sights set on the enormous wealth (by some estimates at over 50 billion dollars) amassed by the CPB and will do whatever it takes to get his hands on. It has become known that he has already replaced Chirayu, who used to manage it, and replaced him with one of his own had picked person, not to mention the newly appointed chamberlains in the palace.
I’m hoping against all hope that a deal will be reached and that the CP moves permanently to his newly purchased luxury villa outside of Munich and brings this sad saga in Thailand’s history to a close. On the other hand, I am also realistic and don’t think it will end well.
The lost kingdom
Please distinguish between the late king as person, the personality cult and the use of him as a tool for legitimation of the elite. Don’t follow the common, highly idelogical argument of royalists regarding the reign of Rama IX, but look at it from an analytical perspective. The shortcommings of democracy can hardly be blamed on the late king. There are quite a few others to be blamed. As the least, the periode where Thailand was a “a country (once) known for its blossoming democracy and vibrant society”, was within the reign of Rama IX.
Red and Yellow in Germany
Photos of Saran Chuichai after reportedly being taken to a shooting range and tweeted Monday.
http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2016/10/17/calls-calm-witch-hunt-concerns-hm-kings-death/
On 16 October, Rienthong Nanna, chairman of the ultra-royalist vigilante group Rubbish Collection Organisation (RCO), posted on his Facebook account the address of Wanna, a Thai living in Paris. Rienthong alleged that Wanna is sheltering Saran Chuichai, also known as Aum Neko, a lèse-majesté suspect who is currently in exile in France.
http://prachatai.org/english/node/6658
The myth of King Bhumibol
He credited “Tom.”
Special interview: Matthew McDaniel, pro-Akha activist
Anyone that opposes organized religion is going to get their character torn to pieces by said religions. It is all well and good to go about chanting WWJD ~ well I can tell you one thing ~ vindictive character assassination is NOT what Jesus would do. Shame on these people for posing as someone who is just there to help and then stealing the children of the people they are there to help. How condescending of them! The Akha people are very thoughtful and loving parents, if one would choose to help the children, provide the means for the parents to do so and let the children remain in their homes. It sickens me that these ‘missionaries’ steal these beautiful children, not only from the Akha people but from indigenous people all over the world. They strip them of their cultural identity, and parade them about in the USA like so many prized pets. Little else will raise a “christian” in the esteem of their congregation as traveling to a far off land and coming back with an “exotic” child to show off. Disgusting self serving narrow minded pretentious contentious morons that they are they actually tell themselves and each other that they are helping the children. If they really want to help the children, rescue the whole family from poverty and let them stay together.
Private: Managing the death of King Bhumibol
Erick I will add my own impressions. I was at the hospital reporting live for the BBC when we had official confirmation that the king had died. It was very strange because for 2-3 minutes the crowd around me did not realise he had gone. They were still shouting ‘long live the king’ while I was reporting his death. Then I heard the cries of grief as people got the news on their smart phones – connectivity was poor because of the numbers there. Those cries rippled through the crowd, and people were genuinely distraught. But it was not what I would call hysteria. They were very upset and tearful, but not wailing.
At my spot on Friday the heat was also a problem. The cops enforced a no umbrella rule for more than hour before the procession arrived, and people were fainting all around us. Large numbers of people down one side of the palace, where the motorcade would not pass, were at the last minute ushered into our already overcrowded spot, and for a moment I thought we would have a stampede. But good Thai manners saved the day, even though the cops were trying to keep us from advancing a little closer to the gate where the procession would enter the palace. There was a light moment when Anand Panyarachun arrived late, in full regalia, and had to be helped to step through the sitting crowd to reach the entrance. He got a hearty round of applause and seemed to enjoy the moment. We were receiving updates from people following the procession, so could reassure the crowd nearest us over how far away it was. We also got advance info the the king’s body was travelling in an unassuming van with blue stripes. Sat down, with cameramen and tripods at the front, the crowd could not actually see when the procession arrived and dived inside the palace gate. But they did see the cameramen become alert and start filming. I had my head hunched right down behind my cameraman to try to avoid blocking the view behind me. The crowd went noticeably silent, started quietly sobbing, and then, starting at the back, began singing the king’s anthem Sansoen Phra Barami, struggling through their tears. It was a brief but very powerful moment. And just as suddenly it was over, they were up and chatting to each other, and making their way home.
Death of a monarch or an oligarch?
I’m not sure that McCoy came from the CIA, although he certainly got interesting access without going through the NRC (National Research Council) for permission.
Can you imagine that dialogue?
OTOH, most farang in thailand at the time were gossiped about as CIA. Since the CIA backed a lot of the narcotics trade in the 1950s, I’m not sure it was in their interest to expose that involvement. I was considered to be pro-royalist because I studied royals. Dah. My position was always, Let the critics step up and make some contributions of their own. Now’s the time to destroy some of the old myths put out by the monarchy and state which shackled academic research.
If not now, when?
The myth of King Bhumibol
Correct. The CP is adept at managing and outraging press. He knows his context.
The myth of King Bhumibol
Right. It’s all myth, smoke and mirrors, and damaging to the populace. Making fools of academics.
The myth of King Bhumibol
This is fascinating, numbers are always a problem. I would still argue that the police can fudge numbers, and when they investigated, as you say Tom, they put the over 1,000 down to gangland murders– not extra-judicial? Can the police investigate themselves? Yes Tom, it does deserve an article, after reading Bkk Pundit one has to be convinced, but it’s not really a full article. But can we deny the atmosphere of fear among drug users or suspects at the time, which, of course, can just be a response to the ‘drug war’, and stories of atrocities – true or not, or to the media. I am sure HRW reported on the climate of fear, this, I think needs to be juxtaposed with what the actual situation was if an article was to be written.
HRW (Sunai Phasuk), in reporting on the prosecution of police for (non-drug related) extra-judicial killings in Kalasin in 2004 says that Thaksin’s announcements to the police to ‘show them no mercy’, “further entrenched the impunity for police brutality that has plagued Thailand for decades” (Opinion Bkk Post 24/8/2012).
Politics of the interregnum
Here is some speculative Thai Kremlinology that will be put to the test fairly soon:-
The struggle between the King’s and the Queen’s courtiers, originating long ago from their failed marriage, took a decisive turn when Thursday night’s meeting of the stacked National Legislative Assembly failed in its purpose of declaring Vajiralongkorn king. Instead of Prayut’s plan going ahead, the old fox Prem has become regent. The secret revolution is well under way. Prayut and the Prince are dead ducks. It will be only a short time before the Prince is back in Bavaria permanently. Prayut will probably need to be put on trial and condemned for something or other. The apparent ascendancy of Sirikit’s courtiers over the last few years was an illusion. Prem allowed her fascist clique to make the running, and bear the infamy of the second coup and the associated repression. Now, he and the serious, hard-working operators are back to save Thailand from tyranny, present Princess Angel as Queen to an adoring public, and win back the red-shirts from Thaksin with serious money. If that doesn’t happen, how can the glittering, rotten hierarchy be kept alive for another generation?
The myth of King Bhumibol
Just like in Soviet era, it’s called Cult of Personality, they’re brainwashed since birth and was forced by retard minority to love Lenin. Once Soviet collapse, you see how much people hate him. LOL