Speculation is what you get when you have lese majeste. Speculation is what you get when Thailand won’t be honest, open, and transparent.
If anybody is going to speculate, I think Mr. MacGregor has earned the right. He has been tireless in his efforts to remove the veil from Thailand’s inner machinations. I enjoyed reading this, and I’m glad he posted here because I friggin’ HATE facebook.
First off the Military giving in or up anything is a complete and absolute farce. That makes the anti and pro sanction still do not understand the psyche of the Burmese.
Despite the repeated encouragement to travel within Myanmar especially as Mr Selt did
( BTW my icon must please follow up with same route as f/u with this time only an interpreter guide. A basic sanitary kit and a portable, accordion mosquito net. Relying on local or food, Which will not be hard to get invitations and insist on eating only the food the host will be eating.)
One will realize there is an absolute disconnect b/t rural (thaw)and urban (myote) life . Activities, life stye , opportunities and most of all aspiration are completely different. The former more or less remain unchanged since the time of ThiBaw while the latter is consumer driven bulging the moral seam that has been Thailand a fellow Tharivatha Buddhist will cringe.
Thailand has solved this problem of inequity long ago. Unwittingly buiding roads and various transportation systems to accommodate USA military during the Vietnam war 50’s to 70’s.
Thailand benefited from USA direct aide as well as unbridled economic opportunities for almost 3 decades while military under Ne Win worried over communist take over eventual isolation policy that ruin the country.
Why this repetition of obvious at nauseum ?
Debate over Myanmar need to proceed beyond the Crime against humanity of Sanction as well as the Military extremes.
For obvious accused true HR violations there are more west ignored direct evidence of sanctions induced permanent degradation of humanity including Kala in Yakhine.
Until the inequity of rural and urban are address one will not see the solutions which the Lady only can bridge.
Build road that will not degrade under monsoon as in Thailand and Vietnam from Yagon to Myintkyina and major cities, micro loans that will allow rural commerce and education etc to progress and witness a Myanmar over take (wishful thinking) or become par.
These can all be done within a 4 years period .
As for the unrest within Myanmar Kofi Annan self serving effort should be directed at Karen Myanmar, the longest civil war/the most enduring animosities instead of Kala in Yakine where all the money are.
If the west invest in roads to Yakhine then on to India the one o the poorest region can proper with the Kala problems become insignificant.
Andrew writes as if he knows this with great authority but it is all utter speculation and gossip. Certainly there are negotiations going on, but they could be at very different angles from what he says — who is up or down in the royal family, what Prem and various generals support, and how this all will turn out. On Prayuth’s rushing back to Bangkok… It seems extraordinary the way it is put above. But wouldn’t he normally do that, as PM, if the king was about to die and the prince just returned? That’s not extraordinary. Yes there is a lot going on but we should be wary of someone saying they know what Prem is saying and what the prince is answering. If nothing else, Prem’s views, words and actions have always been extremely tightly held.. with the wikileaks embassy note the big exception.
Things are moving fast. Prem has just appointed Thanin, the mad book-burner as the new President of the Privy Council. Liberalisation would have been smart, but that doesn’t sound like it. 40 years ago, PM Thanin was overthrown by the military because his régime was too repressive!
That the LM law would be modified, or that a large scale amnesty might take place is wishful, illusionary thinking. At least until the new reign and the associated elite is stabilized I expect an even stronger and more populist application of this law. The mob in Phuket, Kho Samui etc. is probably just be a start.
RN England – certainly the Thai BUDDHIST tradition is that a new Reign means the slate should be wiped clean. Most, hopefully ALL, LM prisoners will be released – as an act of Royal magnamity, bolstering the new Monarch’s barami.
This is complete and utter speculation. There is zero evidence of a plot against Vajiralongkorn or any evidence to suggest that he won’t become King at a time of his choosing.
Almost every single serious scholar of Thailand will state that most of the factual information is located outside Thailand, discussed outside Thailand, and safe to discuss outside Thailand. Such is the blessing of western culture.
I like this reading of tea leaves. It allows for interesting and inspired conspiracy theories based on very limited facts. However, to apply Hanlon’s razor seems more useful. One aspect is quite interesting though. Usually in a monarchic system the regent belongs to the dynasty, i.e. is a member of the wider the royal family. Thereby he receives the charisma to rule from the genealogy. Is thus an elected regent with not family ties to the dynasty an indicator of “creeping republicanization”?
The arrival of Princess UbolRatana – first daughter of His Majesty Bumiphol – is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. Her Royal Highness has a HUGE DAM built in her name in Isaarn, visited daily by Isaarn people paying their respects and LOYALTY to Her. She was banished from the Kingdom – for a long time – because she married a WEST POINT graduate. America – Thailand’s longest, most steadfast ally – is obviously moving behind the scenes to ensure the dam does not burst.
The government on Tuesday night revised yet again the timeframe for when Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn will ascend the throne as King Rama X.
Hours after junta chairman Prayuth Chan-ocha said the 65-year-old prince might take the throne seven to 15 days into the funeral for his father, his deputy clarified Tuesday night that explanation was not literal.
actually no.
Religiosity is associated with low education, poor economic prospects, lower intelligence and essentially lower social indices on every level
and the number of people of no religion is growing rapidly
and no.
Just because people believe something is true, doesnt make it true. The truth doesnt correlate with how many people believe otherwise
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What’s going on in Thailand?
Speculation is what you get when you have lese majeste. Speculation is what you get when Thailand won’t be honest, open, and transparent.
If anybody is going to speculate, I think Mr. MacGregor has earned the right. He has been tireless in his efforts to remove the veil from Thailand’s inner machinations. I enjoyed reading this, and I’m glad he posted here because I friggin’ HATE facebook.
Lifting US sanctions: right or wrong?
First off the Military giving in or up anything is a complete and absolute farce. That makes the anti and pro sanction still do not understand the psyche of the Burmese.
Despite the repeated encouragement to travel within Myanmar especially as Mr Selt did
http://www.newmandala.org/journeys-without-maps-myanmar/
( BTW my icon must please follow up with same route as f/u with this time only an interpreter guide. A basic sanitary kit and a portable, accordion mosquito net. Relying on local or food, Which will not be hard to get invitations and insist on eating only the food the host will be eating.)
One will realize there is an absolute disconnect b/t rural (thaw)and urban (myote) life . Activities, life stye , opportunities and most of all aspiration are completely different. The former more or less remain unchanged since the time of ThiBaw while the latter is consumer driven bulging the moral seam that has been Thailand a fellow Tharivatha Buddhist will cringe.
Thailand has solved this problem of inequity long ago. Unwittingly buiding roads and various transportation systems to accommodate USA military during the Vietnam war 50’s to 70’s.
Thailand benefited from USA direct aide as well as unbridled economic opportunities for almost 3 decades while military under Ne Win worried over communist take over eventual isolation policy that ruin the country.
Why this repetition of obvious at nauseum ?
Debate over Myanmar need to proceed beyond the Crime against humanity of Sanction as well as the Military extremes.
For obvious accused true HR violations there are more west ignored direct evidence of sanctions induced permanent degradation of humanity including Kala in Yakhine.
Until the inequity of rural and urban are address one will not see the solutions which the Lady only can bridge.
Build road that will not degrade under monsoon as in Thailand and Vietnam from Yagon to Myintkyina and major cities, micro loans that will allow rural commerce and education etc to progress and witness a Myanmar over take (wishful thinking) or become par.
These can all be done within a 4 years period .
As for the unrest within Myanmar Kofi Annan self serving effort should be directed at Karen Myanmar, the longest civil war/the most enduring animosities instead of Kala in Yakine where all the money are.
If the west invest in roads to Yakhine then on to India the one o the poorest region can proper with the Kala problems become insignificant.
The spectre of succession
Keep dreaming, civil war is coming.
What’s going on in Thailand?
… the farce continues …
What’s going on in Thailand?
Andrew writes as if he knows this with great authority but it is all utter speculation and gossip. Certainly there are negotiations going on, but they could be at very different angles from what he says — who is up or down in the royal family, what Prem and various generals support, and how this all will turn out. On Prayuth’s rushing back to Bangkok… It seems extraordinary the way it is put above. But wouldn’t he normally do that, as PM, if the king was about to die and the prince just returned? That’s not extraordinary. Yes there is a lot going on but we should be wary of someone saying they know what Prem is saying and what the prince is answering. If nothing else, Prem’s views, words and actions have always been extremely tightly held.. with the wikileaks embassy note the big exception.
What’s going on in Thailand?
Things are moving fast. Prem has just appointed Thanin, the mad book-burner as the new President of the Privy Council. Liberalisation would have been smart, but that doesn’t sound like it. 40 years ago, PM Thanin was overthrown by the military because his régime was too repressive!
What’s going on in Thailand?
That the LM law would be modified, or that a large scale amnesty might take place is wishful, illusionary thinking. At least until the new reign and the associated elite is stabilized I expect an even stronger and more populist application of this law. The mob in Phuket, Kho Samui etc. is probably just be a start.
What’s going on in Thailand?
But then what happens about Thaksin ?
What’s going on in Thailand?
RN England – certainly the Thai BUDDHIST tradition is that a new Reign means the slate should be wiped clean. Most, hopefully ALL, LM prisoners will be released – as an act of Royal magnamity, bolstering the new Monarch’s barami.
What’s going on in Thailand?
Hope you are right Joshua.
What’s going on in Thailand?
This is complete and utter speculation. There is zero evidence of a plot against Vajiralongkorn or any evidence to suggest that he won’t become King at a time of his choosing.
What’s going on in Thailand?
“moving behind the scenes” gingerly and ineffectively. US-Thai relations, as well as most pro-US ASEAN bloc relations, are toast.
What’s going on in Thailand?
Almost every single serious scholar of Thailand will state that most of the factual information is located outside Thailand, discussed outside Thailand, and safe to discuss outside Thailand. Such is the blessing of western culture.
What’s going on in Thailand?
Prem has been dominant, ever since April Fool’s failed coup, 1981. Even with His Majesty now gone, Prem remains dominant.
What’s going on in Thailand?
I like this reading of tea leaves. It allows for interesting and inspired conspiracy theories based on very limited facts. However, to apply Hanlon’s razor seems more useful. One aspect is quite interesting though. Usually in a monarchic system the regent belongs to the dynasty, i.e. is a member of the wider the royal family. Thereby he receives the charisma to rule from the genealogy. Is thus an elected regent with not family ties to the dynasty an indicator of “creeping republicanization”?
What’s going on in Thailand?
The arrival of Princess UbolRatana – first daughter of His Majesty Bumiphol – is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. Her Royal Highness has a HUGE DAM built in her name in Isaarn, visited daily by Isaarn people paying their respects and LOYALTY to Her. She was banished from the Kingdom – for a long time – because she married a WEST POINT graduate. America – Thailand’s longest, most steadfast ally – is obviously moving behind the scenes to ensure the dam does not burst.
What’s going on in Thailand?
^
obviously as Andrew writes, Thailand’s succession struggle isn’t over yet.
What’s going on in Thailand?
The government on Tuesday night revised yet again the timeframe for when Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn will ascend the throne as King Rama X.
Hours after junta chairman Prayuth Chan-ocha said the 65-year-old prince might take the throne seven to 15 days into the funeral for his father, his deputy clarified Tuesday night that explanation was not literal.
http://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2016/10/19/govt-backs-off-specific-succession-time-frame/
A crown prince and German affairs
actually no.
Religiosity is associated with low education, poor economic prospects, lower intelligence and essentially lower social indices on every level
and the number of people of no religion is growing rapidly
and no.
Just because people believe something is true, doesnt make it true. The truth doesnt correlate with how many people believe otherwise
Private: Managing the death of King Bhumibol
government holiday