It might be good for Thailand to relax the law, but not totally abandon it. Especially if populist strongmen and/or juntas try to hijack the country for themselves, a level of protection to the monarchy might ensure stability. Remember, in many Asian societies what is not mentioned openly does not have to be dealt with, and saving face is of utmost importance. Opening the door to slander could potentially wreak havoc on society with an outcome not necessarily being more “democracy”.
Alas, what is to be done? I just cannot see the elite self-immolating by allowing the CP unfettered power.
I fear a deal will be cut whereby the CP may well become king in absentia (except for rare and carefully staged and chosen ceremonials) and one of the two elder princesses will become the ‘adored’ face of monarchy going forward, with of course, the full deification of Rama IX likely now well underway in the bowels of the machine.
Alas, the belief that the Kings passing will somehow loosen the grip of the elite (monarchy) and their increasingly terrifying cult-machinery, is I think, misplaced.
But, on the other hand, if the CP confounds them, and, crucially, brings home Thaksin, then there is a slight chance they’ll be hoisted by their own petard.
The only other prospect, is that the ‘King cult’ may through a series of gaffes and yet to eventuate scenarios, eventually work against the machine as it tries to indoctrinate the next generation with a new cult figure to adore, thus perhaps creating a schism.
The world itself, curiously, has a parallel. The ‘war on drugs’ propaganda, has effectively made sensible drug reform near impossible in most countries, due to global public moral panic about any and all drugs -but not including the most harmful drug by several magnitudes and measures, alcohol- and the political delicacy of addressing these desperately needed reforms, when people’s ideas about drugs, and drug harms, are calcified.
But back to the cult, the biggest threat to Thailand’s people progressing along a more socially equitable path, appears to be at the moment, the people themselves!
Great article and interesting discussion. But I wonder how much effort is worth expending on questions of ‘law’ in Thailand at the present time? Surely it’s pretty obvious that the laws come out of the barrel of a gun, to paraphrase Mao, and the laws will turn out to mean whatever the winners say they mean? Can anyone genuinely foresee a legal pronouncement by Prayut being overturned on legal grounds? And if so, by whom?
Yes indeed Trump Tower, when Ferdinand Marcos was President of Philippines he was asked by an aide as to whether the President’s proposal was lawful , the reponse ” I am the law”
Remember when the national slogan was Nation, Religion, King … and sometimes in the late 1970s I could have sworn that it was King, Nation and Religion.
Something new is in the works, that’s for sure. Talk about reinvention of tradition. It’s happening before our eyes.
For too long, the majority of “ordinary” Thai people have suffered in a variety of ways. In talking to regular folks in different parts of Thailand, they have stressed that they are working harder than ever but not seeing their lives improve in any way. In fact, falling behind economically. What does this say about the royalists, elites, and military, who have ruled Thailand, albeit, behind the scenes with an iron fist, putting down any challenge to the status quo.
It is obvious to any astute follower of Thai politics, that there is a succession struggle going on at the moment. A deal has not been made, as they have not reached a firm decision yet. By that I mean, Prem and his cronies and Prayuth and the CP. Anything is possible and it will soon become clear.
Sadly, Thailand’s best days are behind it, as the real problems and issues that have been swept under the rug for decades and not truly dealt with, in a fair and democratic manner, will come back to haunt it.
Lastly, the CP has shown from what has been revealed online and via palace insiders, how ruthless, depraved and vengeful he is and if and when he takes the throne, it will be a disaster, no matter how hard they try to keep up appearances and no matter how effective the PR machine is, it will bring the monarchy to an end in due time.
In this day and age, do the Thai people really need a monarch like this royal family? like the CP?
A very good article but hard to pinpoint how things are going to turn out, esp. considering the strict 112 law, the fearful climate that’s rearing it’s ugly head after the king’s demise, and the tight secrecy surrounding the royal palace and generals, where a lot of decisions are being made behind the scenes. It’s not an opaque system where one can formulate a theory or articulate a formula for how the Thai political scene will be transformed by the present military junta.
For too long, a lot of things have been hidden from the Thai public and shrouded in secrecy. Now that the King has passed, it is just a matter of time, likely after the lengthy mourning period, that pockets of resistance will arise and it will scare the already insecure junta. The junta, using Article 44, will do what they are good at, and will suppress any and all resistance, as past Thai history has repeatedly shown. It will backfire and a small spark will lead to a raging fire, that will result in a people’s revolution. Thailand is ripe for a people’s revolution, to break off the shackles of injustice, lack of accountability of those in power, a un-levelled playing field, lack of opportunities for the majority of hard working Thais. How much can the Thai people take and for how long? Think of what good has come out of the May 22, 2014 illegitimate military coup? Same story being played out each time, with different actors each.
A lot of horrible events have transpired in Thailand and much innocent blood has been shed, e.g. what transpired at Thammasart Univ. on Oct. 6, 1976. No one has ever been held responsible. The perpetrators have never been identified, or faced the consequences for the heinous crimes committed and have gotten away with murder. How can a country move forward, have a fresh start, when atrocities are committed and everything is “swept under the rug” and blanket amnesty is given time and time again. The majority of Thais know what’s going on and are not fools. They see this pattern of abuse and a lack of consequences for those in power. The “truth” will eventually come out and cannot be hidden for long. Thailand belongs to the Thai people and not to a small group of royalists, elites, or the Thai military. There must be accountability.
We all know that the CP will never change. He is who he is and it will be a disaster if he takes the throne and will precipitate the demise of the Thai royal family as we know it.
In relation to Prem and the above constitutional debacle; I’m reminded of a favorite movie scene, a quote from ‘The Madness of King George’.
In it, Baron Thurlow, the Chancellor, tears out the page of the church register, that bears the record of the secret marriage of the Prince of Wales to a Catholic…
Clergyman: “You can’t do that! It’s against the law!”
Thurlow: “I *am* the law.”
Jj – despite His Majesty’s poverty initiatives, during the 1960’s and ’70’s – which I applaud – the Communist Party of Thailand was still able to command about one third of Isaarn. THIS shows the abiding – still very strong – Isaarn resentment against the Bangkok Thai State. And now Isaarn has a much more indigenous liberation ideology than those Bangkok “communist ” kids brought.
John, by your logic and analogy — that the Senate’s President Pro Tempore acts in place of the Senate President — the Regent Pro Tempore would only act in place of the Regent, not the king.
‘Dumb move’? ‘Brilliant maneuver’? Show of confidence? For me, I don’t know. But it does signal continuity with the 9th reign: by not following constitutional procedures and theoretically taking the country into a black hole, the prince, Prayuth and Prem have shown that they don’t think much of the constitution that so many people worked on and so many people voted in support of. As usual, the law does not apply to them. Certainly in their discussions someone told them, ‘the constitution doesn’t actually allow or cover this situation.’ And so someone else had to reply ‘mai ben rai’. I wonder who said it first.
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Thailand’s law of the mob
Excellent and informative article. I am glad that Shui has provided us with more analysis, and hope to hear more from Elias.
Thailand’s law of the mob
It might be good for Thailand to relax the law, but not totally abandon it. Especially if populist strongmen and/or juntas try to hijack the country for themselves, a level of protection to the monarchy might ensure stability. Remember, in many Asian societies what is not mentioned openly does not have to be dealt with, and saving face is of utmost importance. Opening the door to slander could potentially wreak havoc on society with an outcome not necessarily being more “democracy”.
The cult of a dead king
Alas, what is to be done? I just cannot see the elite self-immolating by allowing the CP unfettered power.
I fear a deal will be cut whereby the CP may well become king in absentia (except for rare and carefully staged and chosen ceremonials) and one of the two elder princesses will become the ‘adored’ face of monarchy going forward, with of course, the full deification of Rama IX likely now well underway in the bowels of the machine.
Alas, the belief that the Kings passing will somehow loosen the grip of the elite (monarchy) and their increasingly terrifying cult-machinery, is I think, misplaced.
But, on the other hand, if the CP confounds them, and, crucially, brings home Thaksin, then there is a slight chance they’ll be hoisted by their own petard.
The only other prospect, is that the ‘King cult’ may through a series of gaffes and yet to eventuate scenarios, eventually work against the machine as it tries to indoctrinate the next generation with a new cult figure to adore, thus perhaps creating a schism.
The world itself, curiously, has a parallel. The ‘war on drugs’ propaganda, has effectively made sensible drug reform near impossible in most countries, due to global public moral panic about any and all drugs -but not including the most harmful drug by several magnitudes and measures, alcohol- and the political delicacy of addressing these desperately needed reforms, when people’s ideas about drugs, and drug harms, are calcified.
But back to the cult, the biggest threat to Thailand’s people progressing along a more socially equitable path, appears to be at the moment, the people themselves!
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Great article and interesting discussion. But I wonder how much effort is worth expending on questions of ‘law’ in Thailand at the present time? Surely it’s pretty obvious that the laws come out of the barrel of a gun, to paraphrase Mao, and the laws will turn out to mean whatever the winners say they mean? Can anyone genuinely foresee a legal pronouncement by Prayut being overturned on legal grounds? And if so, by whom?
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Yes indeed Trump Tower, when Ferdinand Marcos was President of Philippines he was asked by an aide as to whether the President’s proposal was lawful , the reponse ” I am the law”
Thailand’s law of the mob
They’re Poor, dumb, and angry.
The tragic trifecta the elite created, will turn on them eventually.
The cult of a dead king
an exceptionally honest piece. well done.
The cult of a dead king
It is very well presented. Thank you for telling.
The cult of a dead king
I admire your courage “Pee” Narisara – my heart goes out to you.
(For non Thai’s “Pee” is not only reserved for “older than you” but is used as a mark of respect)
I can say to you BUT, I know it can appear xenophobic to non Thai – It is not:-
You must be missing your homeland and I guess your heart is heavy – I dream one day, all Thai can return home to the Republic of Thailand.
I write with a warm heart… for you.
Thailand’s network military?
The link doesn’t seem to work.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Remember when the national slogan was Nation, Religion, King … and sometimes in the late 1970s I could have sworn that it was King, Nation and Religion.
Something new is in the works, that’s for sure. Talk about reinvention of tradition. It’s happening before our eyes.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Recall that Prayuth and Wissanu referred to constitution, palatine law and tradition. They seem to be inventing the latter,
The spectre of succession
For too long, the majority of “ordinary” Thai people have suffered in a variety of ways. In talking to regular folks in different parts of Thailand, they have stressed that they are working harder than ever but not seeing their lives improve in any way. In fact, falling behind economically. What does this say about the royalists, elites, and military, who have ruled Thailand, albeit, behind the scenes with an iron fist, putting down any challenge to the status quo.
It is obvious to any astute follower of Thai politics, that there is a succession struggle going on at the moment. A deal has not been made, as they have not reached a firm decision yet. By that I mean, Prem and his cronies and Prayuth and the CP. Anything is possible and it will soon become clear.
Sadly, Thailand’s best days are behind it, as the real problems and issues that have been swept under the rug for decades and not truly dealt with, in a fair and democratic manner, will come back to haunt it.
Lastly, the CP has shown from what has been revealed online and via palace insiders, how ruthless, depraved and vengeful he is and if and when he takes the throne, it will be a disaster, no matter how hard they try to keep up appearances and no matter how effective the PR machine is, it will bring the monarchy to an end in due time.
In this day and age, do the Thai people really need a monarch like this royal family? like the CP?
Thailand’s network military?
A very good article but hard to pinpoint how things are going to turn out, esp. considering the strict 112 law, the fearful climate that’s rearing it’s ugly head after the king’s demise, and the tight secrecy surrounding the royal palace and generals, where a lot of decisions are being made behind the scenes. It’s not an opaque system where one can formulate a theory or articulate a formula for how the Thai political scene will be transformed by the present military junta.
For too long, a lot of things have been hidden from the Thai public and shrouded in secrecy. Now that the King has passed, it is just a matter of time, likely after the lengthy mourning period, that pockets of resistance will arise and it will scare the already insecure junta. The junta, using Article 44, will do what they are good at, and will suppress any and all resistance, as past Thai history has repeatedly shown. It will backfire and a small spark will lead to a raging fire, that will result in a people’s revolution. Thailand is ripe for a people’s revolution, to break off the shackles of injustice, lack of accountability of those in power, a un-levelled playing field, lack of opportunities for the majority of hard working Thais. How much can the Thai people take and for how long? Think of what good has come out of the May 22, 2014 illegitimate military coup? Same story being played out each time, with different actors each.
A lot of horrible events have transpired in Thailand and much innocent blood has been shed, e.g. what transpired at Thammasart Univ. on Oct. 6, 1976. No one has ever been held responsible. The perpetrators have never been identified, or faced the consequences for the heinous crimes committed and have gotten away with murder. How can a country move forward, have a fresh start, when atrocities are committed and everything is “swept under the rug” and blanket amnesty is given time and time again. The majority of Thais know what’s going on and are not fools. They see this pattern of abuse and a lack of consequences for those in power. The “truth” will eventually come out and cannot be hidden for long. Thailand belongs to the Thai people and not to a small group of royalists, elites, or the Thai military. There must be accountability.
We all know that the CP will never change. He is who he is and it will be a disaster if he takes the throne and will precipitate the demise of the Thai royal family as we know it.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
In relation to Prem and the above constitutional debacle; I’m reminded of a favorite movie scene, a quote from ‘The Madness of King George’.
In it, Baron Thurlow, the Chancellor, tears out the page of the church register, that bears the record of the secret marriage of the Prince of Wales to a Catholic…
Clergyman: “You can’t do that! It’s against the law!”
Thurlow: “I *am* the law.”
Thailand’s network military?
Jj – despite His Majesty’s poverty initiatives, during the 1960’s and ’70’s – which I applaud – the Communist Party of Thailand was still able to command about one third of Isaarn. THIS shows the abiding – still very strong – Isaarn resentment against the Bangkok Thai State. And now Isaarn has a much more indigenous liberation ideology than those Bangkok “communist ” kids brought.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
John, by your logic and analogy — that the Senate’s President Pro Tempore acts in place of the Senate President — the Regent Pro Tempore would only act in place of the Regent, not the king.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Correction to my earlier comment: The country with the long-term regent was Hungary, not Austria.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
‘Dumb move’? ‘Brilliant maneuver’? Show of confidence? For me, I don’t know. But it does signal continuity with the 9th reign: by not following constitutional procedures and theoretically taking the country into a black hole, the prince, Prayuth and Prem have shown that they don’t think much of the constitution that so many people worked on and so many people voted in support of. As usual, the law does not apply to them. Certainly in their discussions someone told them, ‘the constitution doesn’t actually allow or cover this situation.’ And so someone else had to reply ‘mai ben rai’. I wonder who said it first.
Thailand’s peculiar interregnum
Thank you