Well, no. Trump (or Bernie, in the past) would be a nail in neoliberal and establishment coffin. Democrats were foolish enough to kick out Bernie and chose Clinton at a time popular opinions were anything-but-establishment. As for SEA, t’s EXACTLY American ‘engagement’ that is driving the region toward war and chaos. Americans love us-vs-other narratives and enjoy confrontation rather than resolution. From Golden Triangle to Vietnam War, we have had enough of American meddling here. China, throughout its history, never had an instance of colonizing and setting up bases in other countries. And Beijing’s infrastructure projects today do a far better job at alleviating poverty than all American aid and NGOs which are more negative than positive.
Author update: In the U.S., we are in shock. This is even true of most Trump supporters, who, as much as they may have wanted him to win, probably did not think it was realistically possible.
One line from my original piece is particularly salient today: “A democratic nation which ignores large blocks of voters for long will be made to pay in one way or another.” Seems to apply to the election of both Trump and Thaksin.
President-elect Trump will soon find that it is far easier to make sweeping promises about dismantling trade deals and healthcare reform programs than it is to implement these changes in policy. Major repercussions ahead for domestic and foreign policy.
President Obama sent a message to Americans yesterday reminding them that no matter their political persuasion, “The sun will still come up in the morning.” In truth, it is cloudy and raining in Washington, DC, today. But surely, it is a new day.
“To date Jokowi has been an extraordinarily successful politician, consistently under-estimated by his rivals. He retains great popular appeal. His record to date suggests that he will manage this episode effectively. But one thing is certain: he will be ever more focused on domestic priorities in the coming months. Australia and the rest of the neighbourhood, who have such a vital interest in Indonesian prosperity and stability, will have to be patient.:
Hal Hill thinks its a major concern, but at the end Jokowi will handle it effectively.
I disagree with you, that it is ust about Ahok, why did Lulung take a back seat. Ahok’s arch nemesis during the protest was playing a second fiddle. Lulung is no idiot, this was beyond his pay grade, and he might get censored by the national level PPP (his party) which supports Jokowi at the national level. You have national level politicians like Faldi Zon and Fahri Hamzah leading the protest.
Secondly, it may be just about Ahok, but that doesn’t mean that Jokowi isn’t going to use it to his advantage. if you look at it that way, you should ask yourself what does Jokowi want to achieve. All of a sudden in the last couple of days, Jokowi and the PDI-P are preparing a flurry of lawsuits against protest leaders. Why? Suing Ahmad Dhani? For what? Then PDI-P’s potential lawsuits against Fadli Zon and Fahri Hamzah. Did you know that someone sent a mob to Jokowi’s mother’s house in Solo to have a cheat with her. Luckily the police intervene and stopped it.
As an expert in Australian-Indonesia relations I assume you are disappointed that you missed the opportunity to pontificate about Jokowi’s lack of interest in Australia-Indonesian relations. As I mentioned above, if a someone has taken upon themselves to organize a mob to have a chat with your elderly mother, you would take it pretty seriously would you not? What does Jokowi’s mother have to do with Ahok?
Academics and policy analyst do better analysis when they wait 1-2 weeks after a major event has happened to determine the potential fallout. To write analysis just 1-2 days after the event is silly.. Because without facts, your analysis isn’t that much better than what mainstream publications are saying
I personally believe it is more important than you make out to be. First, there is social media and internet, people are more plugged. 15 years ago, if you asked a middle class 20something in NTT who was the Governor of Jakarta, do you think they would know? Ahok is a household name in Christian parts of Eastern Indonesia, because he is the most prominent non-Muslim politician in Indonesia.
I am not a policy expert. I am in the private sect or. 15 years ago ago I used to buy alot of Indonesian media, and at that time our company was one of largest media buyers in the country. We were a rinky dink outfit, but for TV spots we were among the top ten nation wide. What I noticed is there are a lot of regional newspapers in Indonesia,, some owned by the many media houses (ie Jawa Pos), some independent outfits. You start googling Ahok NTT, Ahok Manado and Ahok Papua and see what you come up with. There are stories about ormas in those areas we will support Ahok etc. And since the spread of the internet, alot of regional news portals.
You find stories like this across Christian majority areas in Indonesia.
That is just the tip of the iceberg. The danger of a lot of policy makers, journalist and businessmen .they are Jakarta centric or at very best Java centric. That is why Jokowi is taking this matter very seriously, and he should.
In my opinion if not handled correctly, it would be like the Dreyfus affair war to France. Its not going to kill Indonesia, but will linger.
I think a lot of Indonesia watchers have been accustomed to extreme acts of violence in Indonesia, that if Muslims hold a really in Jakarta with minor looting and one death due to asthma complications, its not important, because by Indonesian standards its nothing. Yes you are right. No one is hacking anyone’s limbs ala Sampit. But Indonesian society and democracy has matured, just as France did during Dreyfus Affair from 1789 revolution, that such events don’t spark extreme acts of violence. Just because they aren’t as violent, doesn’t mean they aren’t significant.
The political situation in Indonesia is quite serious. There are attempts to incite coup d’etat , picture of Indonesian Military Commander as RI-1 has been circulating for couple days in social media. Someone is spreading rumor that the commander would be replaced. Although it seems the plot is failing because the commander didn’t buy it, but it’s a proof that someone is seriously plotting coup d’etat . A bigger demo is being planned for Nov 25th. Ahok is just an intermediary target, the real target is Jokowi.
I disagree. How many of he Jakarta elite were involved? Where was Lulung? All of a sudden he went quiet. Its far bigger than just a Jakarta. Most of hte protestors weren’t from Jakarta
I agree completely with your analysis. Many think Christians are a small sliver of Indonesia. They are not, but sometimes ‘lay low’ out of fear of persecution. Even when Benny Moerdani was around, there wasn’t constant scheming to depose him, and his independent views of US, Russia, Vietnam and Israel, which were positive, was not well received by Soeharto in fact but was kept under wraps for a long time, out of fear of the Christian and Communism bogeyman being raised again. Ahok has been called everything in the encyclopaedia. I am waiting for a devout Muslim to praise him for being able to recite a Sura.
Thanks for your comment. Hal Hill predicted on the East Asia Forum website in 2014 that Jokowi would be re-elected in 2019. I commented on his post that we should wait until we could look at the 2019 polls before agreeing with him. Now, two years later, Hill already sees Jokowi ‘on the ropes’.
It was far too early to predict in 2014 that Jokowi would get a second term, and it is far too early to predict now that Jokowi is almost finished.
With all due respect, I disagree with Professor Hill. If it was target at Jokowi to abdicate, he won’t simply abdicate. Not as long as Jokowi commands the loyalty of the army and the police, and also the ruling party of PDI-P. As far as i know, all of the Head of Indonesian Army and Police, are of PDI-P/Jokowi’s camp.
In my opinion, it was targeted to contest and halt PDI-P’s influence in gaining political hegemony in Jakarta. It is understandable, since Ahok is PDI-P’s candidate. To stop Ahok, would mean to stop PDI-P’s political hegemony in Jakarta.
The biggest fear I have for Indonesia is how it impacts Christians areas in Eastern Indonesia. Ahok is very popular in Christian areas of Indonesia, since he is the leading non-Muslim politician in Indonesia
The extremist don’t know that non-Muslims are majority in about 30-40% of Indonesia’s land mass. And because of the way the TNI-AD is structured non-Muslims make up most of the soldiers in those areas. Most Muslims extremist don’t know, this because many of them don’t know anybody in the TNI or are members of the TNI,
More and more non-Muslims pribumi are more vocal in their support of Ahok. In Jakarta its about 90%. A lot of families in places like NTT, Manado, Central Kalimantan, Toraja, Maluku, Papua have relatives in Jakarta. If Ahok is sent to prison, its is not going to go over well in Eastern Indonesia.
This is the problem with the blasphemy charge. If the Governor of Catholic NTT insults Islam, would the Indonesian government and FPI go to NTT and haul him to court? Most of the soldiers in that Kodam are non-Muslim. Kodam Udayana is made up of Bali, NTT and NTB.
In regards of Ahok,
It seems that just like Americans these days, most Jakartans voters are left with only two worst options : Either you support pluralism with Ahok and Jokowi, or you stand with bigotry and corrupt politicians. And the same goes also on the other camp : Either you are a true believer, or you stand with the infidel. For their supporters, they are the promised messiah and perfect. It’s already a personal cult. Indonesians are fond of any form of personal cult.
Only few Indonesians (or non-Indonesians) has managed to remain objective, and aware that both Ahok and his rivals are actually just the same politicans, scheming their way to the top regardless of ethics and conscience. They slammed Ahok for its neo-developmentalism approach and arrogance in evicting Jakarta’s Urban Poors (and break his promises he made when he begged for their vote in 2012), while at the same time still capable in offering harsh condemnation on racial and sectarian bigotry. It would be interesting if someone put their views into account, and how it would affect the politics of Indonesia
The problem with your argument is Ahok does about the same with the poor as with the general population. I don’t really buy that argument. Next time use some facts instead of opinion.
At the end as a Governor of Jakarta, he works for people with Jakarta ID (voters), unfortunately many of those people who were evicted and not given hosing didn’t have Jakarta ID. That is essential problem in Indonesia, which you failed to mention
“Professor Hal Hill from the Australian National University writes in today’s Financial Review that the demonstrations have “shaken Indonesia” and were “arguably the most serious in the country since the May 1998 demonstrations that led to the demise of the 32-year Soeharto presidency”.
He called it the most serious crisis of Mr Widodo’s presidency, that his ongoing tenure was “an open question” and he would have to focus more on home and less on abroad.
“He will be ever more focused on domestic priorities in the coming months. Australia and the rest of the neighbourhood, who have such a vital interest in Indonesian prosperity and stability, will have to be patient,” he writes.
Well said Shane Tarr. I’ve never agreed with Handley’s ridiculous notion that the King never smiles. Bumiphol clearly did at appropriate times. Buddha-like calm smile.
It is looking like Donald Trump is going to win the US presidency. Groper-in-Chief Donald! Lock up your daughters and sisters and mothers out of groping reach by The Donald!
Thank you Michael for your thoughtful extended reply, which proves you are NOT a cretin – and I apologise to you for calling you such, now that you have provide such an extensive argument, much of which I agree with. Re. May ’92 – I was there. After having travelled through Patani. May ’92 was NOT SIMPLY a middle class uprising. The Pi-noi supported it massively. Many from the provinces, with more coming in. This is where my interest in Isaarn comes from. And not long after, Patani – peaceful when I travelled through just prior to May ’92 – started to explode to today’s disaster. I ABSOLUTELY APPLAUDE BUMIPHOL’s INTERVENTION then. I’ve always disagreed with Handley on this. Prem gave the military muscle to pull Thailand together then. I hope he can do this again. But to hold Siam together there needs to be much more genuine de-centralisation, as proposed by Anand, who also saved Thailand immediately post May ’92. I don’t support Isaarn secession. But I think the sentiment for it is spreading massively, rapidly.
Thanks for pushing me to rummage around in my library here to find the source of my charge:
(regarding May ’92)
“Of the thirty-eight dead (where information was available), only one was a businessperson, one a government employee, one a teacher, and one an engineer. At least twenty belonged to the lower classes, and ten more were students. (The other four were street vendors.) Even more telling, of the thirty-four where information is available, not one had graduated from a university….
Despite the many books and articles that describe the uprising as a middle-class victory, the discursively constructed middle class is not unaware that, with many courageous individual exceptions, it went home when the shooting started while others fought on….”
Ockey, Making Democracy.pps 165-6
Clearly I was misremembering. I’ll give you the businessperson and keep an open mind about the students.
But I stand by the point I was making: whereas the middle class went home to avoid the shooting in ’92, these days they leave the country to avoid altogether becoming entangled in protest of any but the most distant kind.
I have grown to detest a certain strain of self-pleasuring fantasy that I think characterizes much of the farang-oriented discourse around Thai politics, especially where the question of liberal democracy is at issue.
We have folks like Nick Nostitz who insist against all evidence that there was/is a “liberalizing” tendency within the UDD/PT condominium that holds out the promise of a real pro-democracy movement in Thailand.
Then we have James Taylor and his whitewashing of Thaksin Shinawatra so that what we have is the image of a liberal democratic leader whose “crimes” against liberal democracy were all just false accusations dreamed up by royalist-fascists.
And then of course we have you and your Isaan separatist movement.
I think I get that for many folks, for a variety of reasons, Thailand and its politics acts as a kind of blank screen on which fantasies can be projected.
But Thailand is a real place, with real political conflict, real victims and perpetrators, but mainly with 60-odd million real people living their real lives.
Forcing all that reality into a convenient narrative for the delectation of indifferent media consumers or subsuming it in the fantasies of self-aggrandizing and self-promoting conspiracy peddlers does more harm than good in my opinion.
As to the HR lawyer you refer to, there have obviously been “disappearances” and middle-class people have died at the hands of agents of the Thai state. I was talking specifically about people being killed in mass protests of the kind that might one day give birth to a real movement toward democracy in Thailand. That is why I cretinously said “in a protest.”
Crap! Thais still know how to have fun. Sure there is a degree of sobriety in Thailand but not completely so whether in Bangkok (based on my wining and dining experience several times since over the last month) and definitively not in all places upcountry (also based on getting “half-drunk” with Isaan “piss-heads). Of course none of this means that most Thais do not honor the King or what he represented. To use phrases such as “brainwashed fanatics” is a very much a phrase of disempowerment and is an insult to Thai people. Sure there are those Thais who would like to “brainwash” all other Thais but the good thing about most Thais is that they resist being “brainwashed” and they certainly are not fanatical. I know this sounds like an official response but some semblance of reality is necessary.
Ahok needs to be indicted for the way he has bulldozed “development” with minimal – or mostly NO compensation – for the poor indigenous. While making himself, and his allies, increasingly immensely rich. Cohen supports this theft.
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With Trump, Beijing trumps Washington
Well, no. Trump (or Bernie, in the past) would be a nail in neoliberal and establishment coffin. Democrats were foolish enough to kick out Bernie and chose Clinton at a time popular opinions were anything-but-establishment. As for SEA, t’s EXACTLY American ‘engagement’ that is driving the region toward war and chaos. Americans love us-vs-other narratives and enjoy confrontation rather than resolution. From Golden Triangle to Vietnam War, we have had enough of American meddling here. China, throughout its history, never had an instance of colonizing and setting up bases in other countries. And Beijing’s infrastructure projects today do a far better job at alleviating poverty than all American aid and NGOs which are more negative than positive.
With Trump, Beijing trumps Washington
This article shows an intense dislike for President Trump.
Well sir whilst you seem to be the ultimate prophet of doom, I suspect little to none of what you say will come true…
Dynasties, those born to rule (Clinton’s) may seem a safer choice to most academics, let’s see if a “peoples choice” person can “trump” the academics.
Second acts for Thaksin and Trump?
Author update: In the U.S., we are in shock. This is even true of most Trump supporters, who, as much as they may have wanted him to win, probably did not think it was realistically possible.
One line from my original piece is particularly salient today: “A democratic nation which ignores large blocks of voters for long will be made to pay in one way or another.” Seems to apply to the election of both Trump and Thaksin.
President-elect Trump will soon find that it is far easier to make sweeping promises about dismantling trade deals and healthcare reform programs than it is to implement these changes in policy. Major repercussions ahead for domestic and foreign policy.
President Obama sent a message to Americans yesterday reminding them that no matter their political persuasion, “The sun will still come up in the morning.” In truth, it is cloudy and raining in Washington, DC, today. But surely, it is a new day.
Making enemies out of friends
This is the complete article by Hal Hil, which the person referenced.
http://hardnews.com.au/06-11-2016/jokowi-faces-his-biggest-political-challenge-the-australian-financial-review/
“To date Jokowi has been an extraordinarily successful politician, consistently under-estimated by his rivals. He retains great popular appeal. His record to date suggests that he will manage this episode effectively. But one thing is certain: he will be ever more focused on domestic priorities in the coming months. Australia and the rest of the neighbourhood, who have such a vital interest in Indonesian prosperity and stability, will have to be patient.:
Hal Hill thinks its a major concern, but at the end Jokowi will handle it effectively.
I disagree with you, that it is ust about Ahok, why did Lulung take a back seat. Ahok’s arch nemesis during the protest was playing a second fiddle. Lulung is no idiot, this was beyond his pay grade, and he might get censored by the national level PPP (his party) which supports Jokowi at the national level. You have national level politicians like Faldi Zon and Fahri Hamzah leading the protest.
Secondly, it may be just about Ahok, but that doesn’t mean that Jokowi isn’t going to use it to his advantage. if you look at it that way, you should ask yourself what does Jokowi want to achieve. All of a sudden in the last couple of days, Jokowi and the PDI-P are preparing a flurry of lawsuits against protest leaders. Why? Suing Ahmad Dhani? For what? Then PDI-P’s potential lawsuits against Fadli Zon and Fahri Hamzah. Did you know that someone sent a mob to Jokowi’s mother’s house in Solo to have a cheat with her. Luckily the police intervene and stopped it.
As an expert in Australian-Indonesia relations I assume you are disappointed that you missed the opportunity to pontificate about Jokowi’s lack of interest in Australia-Indonesian relations. As I mentioned above, if a someone has taken upon themselves to organize a mob to have a chat with your elderly mother, you would take it pretty seriously would you not? What does Jokowi’s mother have to do with Ahok?
Academics and policy analyst do better analysis when they wait 1-2 weeks after a major event has happened to determine the potential fallout. To write analysis just 1-2 days after the event is silly.. Because without facts, your analysis isn’t that much better than what mainstream publications are saying
I personally believe it is more important than you make out to be. First, there is social media and internet, people are more plugged. 15 years ago, if you asked a middle class 20something in NTT who was the Governor of Jakarta, do you think they would know? Ahok is a household name in Christian parts of Eastern Indonesia, because he is the most prominent non-Muslim politician in Indonesia.
I am not a policy expert. I am in the private sect or. 15 years ago ago I used to buy alot of Indonesian media, and at that time our company was one of largest media buyers in the country. We were a rinky dink outfit, but for TV spots we were among the top ten nation wide. What I noticed is there are a lot of regional newspapers in Indonesia,, some owned by the many media houses (ie Jawa Pos), some independent outfits. You start googling Ahok NTT, Ahok Manado and Ahok Papua and see what you come up with. There are stories about ormas in those areas we will support Ahok etc. And since the spread of the internet, alot of regional news portals.
https://www.merdeka.com/politik/warga-kupang-deklarasi-dukung-ahok-kumpulkan-ktp-warga-dki-di-ntt.html
http://www.floresa.co/2016/03/01/menabur-virus-ahok-di-ntt/
https://m.tempo.co/read/news/2016/03/16/058754102/demam-ahok-sampai-manado-warga-kalau-bisa-kami-pilih-ahok
You find stories like this across Christian majority areas in Indonesia.
That is just the tip of the iceberg. The danger of a lot of policy makers, journalist and businessmen .they are Jakarta centric or at very best Java centric. That is why Jokowi is taking this matter very seriously, and he should.
In my opinion if not handled correctly, it would be like the Dreyfus affair war to France. Its not going to kill Indonesia, but will linger.
I think a lot of Indonesia watchers have been accustomed to extreme acts of violence in Indonesia, that if Muslims hold a really in Jakarta with minor looting and one death due to asthma complications, its not important, because by Indonesian standards its nothing. Yes you are right. No one is hacking anyone’s limbs ala Sampit. But Indonesian society and democracy has matured, just as France did during Dreyfus Affair from 1789 revolution, that such events don’t spark extreme acts of violence. Just because they aren’t as violent, doesn’t mean they aren’t significant.
Seeking excuses?
The political situation in Indonesia is quite serious. There are attempts to incite coup d’etat , picture of Indonesian Military Commander as RI-1 has been circulating for couple days in social media. Someone is spreading rumor that the commander would be replaced. Although it seems the plot is failing because the commander didn’t buy it, but it’s a proof that someone is seriously plotting coup d’etat . A bigger demo is being planned for Nov 25th. Ahok is just an intermediary target, the real target is Jokowi.
Making enemies out of friends
I disagree. How many of he Jakarta elite were involved? Where was Lulung? All of a sudden he went quiet. Its far bigger than just a Jakarta. Most of hte protestors weren’t from Jakarta
Islamic rage and identity politics in Indonesia
Pak Iwan,
I agree completely with your analysis. Many think Christians are a small sliver of Indonesia. They are not, but sometimes ‘lay low’ out of fear of persecution. Even when Benny Moerdani was around, there wasn’t constant scheming to depose him, and his independent views of US, Russia, Vietnam and Israel, which were positive, was not well received by Soeharto in fact but was kept under wraps for a long time, out of fear of the Christian and Communism bogeyman being raised again. Ahok has been called everything in the encyclopaedia. I am waiting for a devout Muslim to praise him for being able to recite a Sura.
Making enemies out of friends
Sdr Iwan,
Thanks for your comment. Hal Hill predicted on the East Asia Forum website in 2014 that Jokowi would be re-elected in 2019. I commented on his post that we should wait until we could look at the 2019 polls before agreeing with him. Now, two years later, Hill already sees Jokowi ‘on the ropes’.
It was far too early to predict in 2014 that Jokowi would get a second term, and it is far too early to predict now that Jokowi is almost finished.
Hal Hill is a distinguished economist.
Making enemies out of friends
With all due respect, I disagree with Professor Hill. If it was target at Jokowi to abdicate, he won’t simply abdicate. Not as long as Jokowi commands the loyalty of the army and the police, and also the ruling party of PDI-P. As far as i know, all of the Head of Indonesian Army and Police, are of PDI-P/Jokowi’s camp.
In my opinion, it was targeted to contest and halt PDI-P’s influence in gaining political hegemony in Jakarta. It is understandable, since Ahok is PDI-P’s candidate. To stop Ahok, would mean to stop PDI-P’s political hegemony in Jakarta.
Islamic rage and identity politics in Indonesia
The biggest fear I have for Indonesia is how it impacts Christians areas in Eastern Indonesia. Ahok is very popular in Christian areas of Indonesia, since he is the leading non-Muslim politician in Indonesia
The extremist don’t know that non-Muslims are majority in about 30-40% of Indonesia’s land mass. And because of the way the TNI-AD is structured non-Muslims make up most of the soldiers in those areas. Most Muslims extremist don’t know, this because many of them don’t know anybody in the TNI or are members of the TNI,
More and more non-Muslims pribumi are more vocal in their support of Ahok. In Jakarta its about 90%. A lot of families in places like NTT, Manado, Central Kalimantan, Toraja, Maluku, Papua have relatives in Jakarta. If Ahok is sent to prison, its is not going to go over well in Eastern Indonesia.
This is the problem with the blasphemy charge. If the Governor of Catholic NTT insults Islam, would the Indonesian government and FPI go to NTT and haul him to court? Most of the soldiers in that Kodam are non-Muslim. Kodam Udayana is made up of Bali, NTT and NTB.
http://indonews.id/berita/setelah-ntt-aspirasi-indonesia-ajak-diaspora-di-jakarta-dukung-ahokdjarot/
His support among Bataks in Jakarta is higher than among Chinese.
http://batakgaul.com/news/survei-orang-batak-paling-kuat-dukung-ahok-638-1.html
Thailand’s law of the mob
readers may want to see this:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/opinion/tues-thai-exiled-activist-royal-succession-is-an-abyss-for-human-rights/
Islamic rage and identity politics in Indonesia
Nice analysis, Mr. Adhi & Mr. Pipin.
In regards of Ahok,
It seems that just like Americans these days, most Jakartans voters are left with only two worst options : Either you support pluralism with Ahok and Jokowi, or you stand with bigotry and corrupt politicians. And the same goes also on the other camp : Either you are a true believer, or you stand with the infidel. For their supporters, they are the promised messiah and perfect. It’s already a personal cult. Indonesians are fond of any form of personal cult.
Only few Indonesians (or non-Indonesians) has managed to remain objective, and aware that both Ahok and his rivals are actually just the same politicans, scheming their way to the top regardless of ethics and conscience. They slammed Ahok for its neo-developmentalism approach and arrogance in evicting Jakarta’s Urban Poors (and break his promises he made when he begged for their vote in 2012), while at the same time still capable in offering harsh condemnation on racial and sectarian bigotry. It would be interesting if someone put their views into account, and how it would affect the politics of Indonesia
Islamic rage and identity politics in Indonesia
The problem with your argument is Ahok does about the same with the poor as with the general population. I don’t really buy that argument. Next time use some facts instead of opinion.
http://pojoksatu.id/pilkada-dki-jakarta-2017/2016/10/04/mayoritas-pendukung-ahok-djarot-kelompok-lulusan-sd-dan-putus-sekolah/
http://bangka.tribunnews.com/2016/10/05/survei-terbaru-lsi-mengejutkan-ahok-berpotensi-tersingkir-di-pilkada-dki
At the end as a Governor of Jakarta, he works for people with Jakarta ID (voters), unfortunately many of those people who were evicted and not given hosing didn’t have Jakarta ID. That is essential problem in Indonesia, which you failed to mention
Making enemies out of friends
This is where Hal Hill disagree with you. It wasn’t just about Ahok, it was target at Jokowi
http://www.afr.com/news/jakarta-riots-spark-fears-in-canberra-20161105-gsiz5q
“Professor Hal Hill from the Australian National University writes in today’s Financial Review that the demonstrations have “shaken Indonesia” and were “arguably the most serious in the country since the May 1998 demonstrations that led to the demise of the 32-year Soeharto presidency”.
He called it the most serious crisis of Mr Widodo’s presidency, that his ongoing tenure was “an open question” and he would have to focus more on home and less on abroad.
“He will be ever more focused on domestic priorities in the coming months. Australia and the rest of the neighbourhood, who have such a vital interest in Indonesian prosperity and stability, will have to be patient,” he writes.
Again its your opinion, I agree with Hal Hill
Thailand’s law of the mob
Well said Shane Tarr. I’ve never agreed with Handley’s ridiculous notion that the King never smiles. Bumiphol clearly did at appropriate times. Buddha-like calm smile.
Second acts for Thaksin and Trump?
It is looking like Donald Trump is going to win the US presidency. Groper-in-Chief Donald! Lock up your daughters and sisters and mothers out of groping reach by The Donald!
Thailand’s law of the mob
Thank you Michael for your thoughtful extended reply, which proves you are NOT a cretin – and I apologise to you for calling you such, now that you have provide such an extensive argument, much of which I agree with. Re. May ’92 – I was there. After having travelled through Patani. May ’92 was NOT SIMPLY a middle class uprising. The Pi-noi supported it massively. Many from the provinces, with more coming in. This is where my interest in Isaarn comes from. And not long after, Patani – peaceful when I travelled through just prior to May ’92 – started to explode to today’s disaster. I ABSOLUTELY APPLAUDE BUMIPHOL’s INTERVENTION then. I’ve always disagreed with Handley on this. Prem gave the military muscle to pull Thailand together then. I hope he can do this again. But to hold Siam together there needs to be much more genuine de-centralisation, as proposed by Anand, who also saved Thailand immediately post May ’92. I don’t support Isaarn secession. But I think the sentiment for it is spreading massively, rapidly.
Thailand’s law of the mob
Chris:
Thanks for pushing me to rummage around in my library here to find the source of my charge:
(regarding May ’92)
“Of the thirty-eight dead (where information was available), only one was a businessperson, one a government employee, one a teacher, and one an engineer. At least twenty belonged to the lower classes, and ten more were students. (The other four were street vendors.) Even more telling, of the thirty-four where information is available, not one had graduated from a university….
Despite the many books and articles that describe the uprising as a middle-class victory, the discursively constructed middle class is not unaware that, with many courageous individual exceptions, it went home when the shooting started while others fought on….”
Ockey, Making Democracy.pps 165-6
Clearly I was misremembering. I’ll give you the businessperson and keep an open mind about the students.
But I stand by the point I was making: whereas the middle class went home to avoid the shooting in ’92, these days they leave the country to avoid altogether becoming entangled in protest of any but the most distant kind.
I have grown to detest a certain strain of self-pleasuring fantasy that I think characterizes much of the farang-oriented discourse around Thai politics, especially where the question of liberal democracy is at issue.
We have folks like Nick Nostitz who insist against all evidence that there was/is a “liberalizing” tendency within the UDD/PT condominium that holds out the promise of a real pro-democracy movement in Thailand.
Then we have James Taylor and his whitewashing of Thaksin Shinawatra so that what we have is the image of a liberal democratic leader whose “crimes” against liberal democracy were all just false accusations dreamed up by royalist-fascists.
And then of course we have you and your Isaan separatist movement.
I think I get that for many folks, for a variety of reasons, Thailand and its politics acts as a kind of blank screen on which fantasies can be projected.
But Thailand is a real place, with real political conflict, real victims and perpetrators, but mainly with 60-odd million real people living their real lives.
Forcing all that reality into a convenient narrative for the delectation of indifferent media consumers or subsuming it in the fantasies of self-aggrandizing and self-promoting conspiracy peddlers does more harm than good in my opinion.
As to the HR lawyer you refer to, there have obviously been “disappearances” and middle-class people have died at the hands of agents of the Thai state. I was talking specifically about people being killed in mass protests of the kind that might one day give birth to a real movement toward democracy in Thailand. That is why I cretinously said “in a protest.”
Thailand’s law of the mob
Crap! Thais still know how to have fun. Sure there is a degree of sobriety in Thailand but not completely so whether in Bangkok (based on my wining and dining experience several times since over the last month) and definitively not in all places upcountry (also based on getting “half-drunk” with Isaan “piss-heads). Of course none of this means that most Thais do not honor the King or what he represented. To use phrases such as “brainwashed fanatics” is a very much a phrase of disempowerment and is an insult to Thai people. Sure there are those Thais who would like to “brainwash” all other Thais but the good thing about most Thais is that they resist being “brainwashed” and they certainly are not fanatical. I know this sounds like an official response but some semblance of reality is necessary.
Islamic rage and identity politics in Indonesia
Ahok needs to be indicted for the way he has bulldozed “development” with minimal – or mostly NO compensation – for the poor indigenous. While making himself, and his allies, increasingly immensely rich. Cohen supports this theft.