Comments

  1. Chris Beale says:

    Mark Dunn – re. your Thai civil war horror scenario : that is EXACTLY WHY I suggest Thailand adopts some local variant of Australian / Canadian federalism, UNDER THE MONARCHY, as we are.

  2. Falang says:

    The message is passed down the chain of command and the local Poo Yal Barn has the responsibility of ensuring that the required number of loyal subjects represent the Amphur .

  3. neptunian says:

    Simply returned to where they came from… NOT escaping to. If the ex-bangladeshis did not bring along their 15th century mentality when they ran to Myanmar, history would be diferently written.

  4. Ohn says:

    Incredible anyone in Burma can read and write at all with those boring teaching techniques for centuries!!!!

  5. Mark Dunn says:

    And a great many bones there would be!

    This is certainly within the realm of possibility.

    The situation you describe would result in a tragedy of truly epic proportion’s. Civil War, Thai murdering Thai by the hundreds of thousands . There would be rivers of blood in every city and village of Thailand. What’s worse there would be no way of knowing which side would win. The new king would have just as great a chance of victory as his opponents.

    I hope, with all of my heart, that the people of Thailand will not choose this route; that the king ,his people and government will find a peaceful solutions to Thailand’s problems. We only need look next-door at Cambodia to see what happens when a nation turns inward and destroys itself. Thailand does not deserve the genocide of the killing fields.

    What good would come from this? How would the “Victor” feel standing atop a mountain of corpses as they look down upon horror of their triumph?

  6. Soe Win Han says:

    This is a very astute observation!

    Remind me of my childhood classes. I believe we didn’t learn anything in class, which was a total waste of time. The teachers’ favorite kids would memorize everything. At least for me, I would have learned much better if I was put in a lab all day. There was no attempt at sparking a child’s curiosity. We had some computers but none was allowed to use them. I remember my friends and I were dying to test those exotic machines.

    In the end, none reached their potential. I had many extremely bright friends to whom the system has failed. Some end up drug addicts. Many pursue mediocre careers. Some are still clueless about their lives.

  7. Mark Dunn says:

    Really… how would one go about charging someone who chose not to show up to cheer the king?

  8. Eddie Munster says:

    You need to give it time. Thai people are doing what is expected of them right now. In 4-12 months, let’s see how much love there is for the new king. Let’s see how well he controls himself. Let’s see how long it will take for 1/2 the country to say “Enough is enough!”
    I’ve always expected things to run smoothly for a few months after the king died. After that, let’s roll the bones and see where we end up.

  9. Ohn says:

    Poor UN.

  10. JohnF says:

    Call it prediction or analysis, I know of no other field where being completely wrong all the time has no consequences. Crown Prince’s blood disease? Watermelon soldier mutiny? Red village uprising? Secession of Isaan and Lanna? Contested succession? Privy council favoring Princess over CP? Bhumipol abdicating before referendum? Thai population rejecting proposed constitution? Bhumipol abdicating on August (what was the date? I forget?). CP humiliating Prem?

    It’s an alternative universe in which absolutely nothing that has actually happened in Thailand has actually happened in Thailand.

  11. Falang says:

    17 December 2016

    The United Nations is getting daily reports of rapes and killings of the Rohingya minority in Burma’s Arakan State and independent monitors are being barred from investigating, the UN human rights office said on Friday.

    http://www.dvb.no/news/un-says-gets-reports-daily-killings-rapes-arakan/73166

  12. Falang says:

    Patnaree’s charge arises from a “private Facebook chat with Burin Intin, another lèse majesté suspect.”

    In fact, she is charged because the military dictatorship has sought to silence her activist son. It is a threat to each and every activist, emphatically stating that the junta will come after you and your family if you dare oppose the junta.

    She is accused of “defaming” the monarchy by the use of the word “ja” when “replying to a Facebook message from Burin deemed to be lèse majesté…”.

    The report states that “Human Rights Watch translated this word as a non-committal, colloquial ‘yes’ in the Thai language,” while the lese majeste police say the word “shows that she accepted or agreed with the message and failed to report Burin to the authorities.”

    Both are wrong. The use of “ja” or “ka” or “krup” is an acknowledgement of another’s statement. It is not a “yes” or an agreement. These words do not imply agreement or disagreement.

    Her secret trial in a military court will begin on 29 March 2017.

    https://thaipoliticalprisoners.wordpress.com/

  13. Falang says:

    good grief man , do you not understand article 112 ?

    any display other than what was witnessed would have earned the participant a certain jail sentence .

  14. Mark Dunn says:

    Rama X has just appointed two new members to the privy Council, both seem to be civilians. It would appear the generals are no longer in the majority

    They are Virat Chinvinijkul and Jaranthada Karnasuta

  15. Mark Dunn says:

    Good point Chris,

    In all honesty it appears that even his popularity may not really be that much in doubt. Is he as popular as his father? I don’t really know, but we’ve so far seen no sign of the collapse that has so long been predicted as a certainty after the demise of Rama IX.

    Rama X first visit outside the capital to the provinces was to Krabi where he was greeted by tens of thousands chanting “long live the King” while holding up old photos of him from his days as Crown prince.

    This is hardly the type of greeting that one would expect for a man who, if we are to believe his detractors, is a “vile” “evil” ” stupid” “unpopular” “unloved” “hated” (and my personal favorites)
    “Caligula-like” and “Megalomaniacal tyrant”.

  16. Ryan K says:

    Good insight from the author.

    On the other hand, I do believe that an agreement must surely have been reached with Pa Prem and the new King of Thailand, prior to his succession. They must have surely reached a deal whereby Prem and his cronies in the Privy Council, and Prayuth and his cronies, will run the show and the CP gets to succeed his father on the throne. They must have reached a deal and clipped his wings and will likely control him in a way that does not threaten the status quo, while he gets to live the immoral and decadent lifestyle that he has lived for decades, as long as he does not do anything drastic that blows the lid on this show. The “old boys network” want to keep this network monarchy and the “gravy train,” that they have so painstakingly built up over the past several decades, going on as long as they can.
    Yet, nothing lasts forever and the “truth” cannot be hidden for long. In this day and age, the majority of Thais, know what is going on and will rise up and take back their country from these self serving, immoral, and ruthless network. But it won’t be before they have been suppressed, threatened, intimidated, and coerced like never before, using all means at their disposal esp. Article 44 and 112.

  17. Shane Tarr says:

    Aung Moe is engaging is chauvinistic gibberish. She/He/It uses NM as a platform for this gibberish. Fortunately the “Burmans” and even Rohingya working in the factories of Samut Prakan who play football on a portion of my wife’s land in Bang Plee Yai are not at all like Aung Moe. Indeed I wonder who Aung Moe is?

  18. DHL says:

    Precisely. And some of them getting political asylum in European countries like Germany because of religious and political persecution…..

  19. Andrew MacGregor Marshall says:

    This is a website for political and cultural analysis, not for soothsayers with extraordinary powers of foretelling the future. Of course, nobody is right all the time about the future. How petty for somebody to snipe about that when you are not even willing to give your real name. If you are looking for a website that tells you exactly what the future holds, you clearly don’t have a very sophisticated understanding….

  20. Ohn says:

    “……International State Crime Initiative Director, Professor Penny Green, in the organisation’s 2015 report Countdown to Annihilation: Genocide in Myanmar.”

    “….Rohingya population doubles every 20 years almost like in the Bangladesh their fatherland.”