At moments of particular tension in Thai politics New Mandala often consolidates the perspectives of academic commentators on the issues of the day (for previous examples see this one and this one). With Thaksin’s billions at stake in today’s judgment I have taken the opportunity to consider what various academics have ventured to say.

  • I have no doubt there will be a guilty verdict. It’s just a matter of how much of his assets will be taken away…But if they acquit him, and return all his money, they would be denying and negating everything that has stood in Thai politics since the military coup…

Source: Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak quoted in Ben Doherty, “Bangkok on alert awaiting court decision on former PM’s billions”, The Sydney Morning Herald, 25 February 2010.

  • The dilemma is this – if they take away of his money, they are vulnerable charges of double standards and they are likely to give rise to some kind of a backlash…On the other hand, if they were not to take away his money, this might be even worse for them, because what was the rationale for the coup again? If they can’t even get him for this, they might as well bring him back and give him the Prime Minister’s office back…

Source: Dr. Federico Ferrara quoted in “Thailand braces itself ahead of Thaksin verdict”, Channel News Asia, 25 February 2010.

  • Tomorrow will be an important day as all Thais are anxious to see how strong the evidence are and especially the urban residents who are following the case closely…The UDD knows that the government are well prepared to respond to any violent incident, so to protest against the government right after the verdict is not a good strategy and they are also lack of money to hold a prolonged rally…

Source: Surachai Sirikrai, a political scientist at Bangkok-based Thammasat University, quoted in Shi Xianzhen, “Interview: Government should prepare for worst scenario on Thaksin’s “judgment day”: Thai scholar”, Xinhua, 25 February 2010.

  • The whole world is watching us. The international community, including potential investors and tourists, are watching us, as well, on this judgement day as it will affect their decision on whether to invest or not, as well as whether to come (to Thailand) or not…The government has learned its lessons very well and would not let things get out of hand, this time around, as it could affect the country’s political and economic stability…I think the government is well-prepared this time as they are under the world’s spotlight now…

Source: Associate Professor Dr Thanavath Phonvichai quoted in “Judgement Day For Thaksin, Government, Thai People”, Bernama, 24 February 2010.

  • He [Thaksin] is someone who does not like to lose, he will never call it quits…There will be many endings, not one final showdown.

Source: Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Professor of Political Science at Chulalongkorn University, quoted in Sian Powell, “Thai police braced for violence as Thaksin verdict is delivered”, The Times, 26 February 2010.

For an overview of other academic perspectives on the situation the Bangkok Post has more; although it is striking that they don’t bother with any direct quotations from their four academic analysts. No doubt there will be many more comments from professorial types in the coming hours and days. If you come across any other particularly interesting comments please feel free to add them here.